JPMorgan

USDC

<p>Bernstein's bullish case for crypto stocks no longer assumes crypto prices will rise.</p>
<p>Bernstein has cut its price target on Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) to $250 from $330 and now expects the exchange to post a full-year loss. In the same note, it raised estimates for Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Circle (NYSE: CRCL), arguing that <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/tag/prediction-market" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">prediction markets</a>, derivatives and tokenization will matter more than spot trading.</p>
<p>The broker kept Outperform ratings on all three stocks ahead of third-quarter earnings, according to a<a href="https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-26-prediction-markets-derivatives-drive-bernstein-crypto-stock-outlook-coinbase-robinhood-circle-431750" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> report.</a></p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/dump-bitcoin-now-analyst-warns-bitcoin-may-never-hit-another-record" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: 'Dump Bitcoin now': Analyst warns Bitcoin may never hit another record</a></strong></p>
<h2 id="coinbase-swings-to-a-forecast-loss">Coinbase swings to a forecast loss</h2>
<p>Analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia cut their 2026 Coinbase revenue forecast by about 32% to $5.5 billion. They now see a loss of $2.60 per share, a sharp reversal from their earlier forecast of a $5.97 profit.</p>
<p>"We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates," the analysts wrote.</p>
<p>That shift reflects the market Coinbase is operating in.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Bitcoin trades near $80,000, about 36% below its October 2025 record of $126,198. It also ranks alongside gold as one of 2026's <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/bitcoin-and-gold-are-2026s-worst-performing-assets-and-history-offers-no-precedent" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">worst-performing major assets</a>.</p>
<p>Bernstein expects Coinbase's third-quarter spot trading volume to stall around $150 billion, with <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/stablecoins" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">stablecoin</a> revenue doing most of the work. Its bigger bet is on new products: it sees prediction markets and derivatives bringing in about $2 billion a year by 2028, up from roughly $600 million earlier this year.</p>
<p>Not every analyst is cutting.&nbsp;</p>
<p>JPMorgan raised its Coinbase target to $189 from $148 on Monday and kept an Overweight rating. Coinbase reports earnings on Oct.29.</p>
<h3 id="more-on-thstreet-roundtable">More on ThStreet Roundtable</h3>
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<h2 id="bernstein-sees-event-contracts-ahead-of-crypto-in-2028">Bernstein sees event contracts ahead of crypto in 2028</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/investing/analyst-updates-robinhood-stock-forecast-ahead-of-earnings" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bernstein expects</a> Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue to hit $1.7 billion in 2028, just ahead of the $1.6 billion it projects from crypto. Prediction markets let users bet on outcomes such as elections or sports.</p>
<p>It sees event-contract volume rising 21% from last quarter to about 16.4 billion. Crypto trading is forecast to recover to roughly $50 billion, still 38% below a year earlier.</p>
<p>Bernstein held its $160 target, well above Robinhood’s recent price of about $96.</p>
<h2 id="bernstein-and-mizuho-split-over-circle">Bernstein and Mizuho split over Circle</h2>
<p>Circle is where analysts disagree most.</p>
<p>Bernstein raised its target to $145 from $140. Bernstein sees potential revenue from Arc token presales, transaction fees and validator staking, adding possible income streams beyond USDC reserves. It expects third-quarter revenue to edge up to $770 million, even though USDC supply fell to about $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter.</p>
<p>Mizuho sees it very differently.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Mizuho kept its Underperform rating on Circle with a $43 target. It warned that AI personal assistants pose a "marked risk" to Circle's revenue because they may steer users toward higher-yielding bank products instead of holding USDC. Mizuho estimates that could cut 10% to 20% of Circle's reserve revenue in the medium term.</p>
<p>That leaves a gap of more than $100 between the two targets. Circle shares fell 7.1% on Monday to $79.84.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/xrp-rises-as-ripple-scores-major-u-s-win" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: XRP rises as Ripple scores major U.S. win</a></strong></p>
<h2 id="the-test-comes-with-earnings">The test comes with earnings</h2>
<p>Bernstein's note shows how the investment case for crypto-linked stocks is changing. A year ago, these companies traded largely as leveraged bets on bitcoin. Now analysts are valuing them on businesses that can grow even when crypto prices don't.</p>
<p>The risk is that those businesses are still young. Prediction markets face legal challenges from state regulators, and much of the 2028 revenue Bernstein projects is not yet being earned.&nbsp;</p>
<p>This week's earnings will offer the first test of whether the shift is showing up in the numbers.</p>
<h2 id="the-roundtable-100">The Roundtable 100</h2>
<p>If you follow our market coverage, don’t miss the <a href="https://roundtable100.com/tab/rankings" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Roundtable 100</a><strong>.</strong> Updated every Friday, it's a power ranking of the 100 most investable tech stocks, including digital assets. Check out the latest <a href="https://roundtable100.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">RTB 100</a> rankings at <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">roundtable100.com</a>.</p>

Top analyst cuts Coinbase target, bets on prediction markets

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