Chair

FOMC

Jerome Powell

Kevin

Lean

<h2 id="span-style-font-size-16px-color-inherit-font-weight-bolder-fed-rate-decision-and-bit-span-span-style-font-size-16px-color-inherit-font-weight-bolder-span-span-style-font-size-16px-color-inherit-font-weight-bolder-span-span-style-font-size-16px-color-inherit-font-weight-bolder-coin-how-crypto-markets-could-react-span">Fed Rate Decision and Bitcoin: How Crypto Markets Could React</h2>
The Fed rate decision arrives at 2:00 PM ET today, and the outcome is nearly settled. The FOMC meeting October 2026 is the first since September’s quarter-point increase lifted the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Chair Kevin Warsh, who <a href="https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/powell-stepped-down-crypto-bull-start-under-new-fed-chair-warsh" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">succeeded Jerome Powell in May</a>, takes questions at 2:30 PM ET.&nbsp;
<img alt="Fed Rate Decision Today" src="https://d3iuzwoiyg9qa8.cloudfront.net/webadmin/storage/public/commonEditerImage/kudtkoZvlkHeZw21cRnAOB2Dx4RBP3uvbMG9pZbC.png" width="300" height="197" title="Fed Rate Decision Today">
Source: <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Federal Reverse Calender</a>
For crypto news today, the bigger question is what Chair Kevin Warsh says next. Bitcoin sits near $81,000, and the tone of that message could <a href="https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-market-volatility-ahead-fed-decision-and-us-midterms-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">move the crypto market</a> far more than the rate itself.&nbsp;
<h3 id="span-span-style-font-size-16px-what-the-fed-rate-decision-is-expected-to-deliver-at-today-s-meeting-span-span">What the Fed Rate Decision Is Expected to Deliver at Today’s Meeting</h3>
The October 2026 FOMC meeting is expected to keep the target range at 3.75%–4.00%, same as last meeting’s decision.&nbsp;CME FedWatch pricing shows:
<img alt="FedWatch Tool Live" src="https://d3iuzwoiyg9qa8.cloudfront.net/webadmin/storage/public/commonEditerImage/pmYPRUgNUpsSKdteAViFeggdiX7J32EtGZQORW98.png" width="300" height="441" title="FedWatch Tool Live">
<ul>
 <li>Hold: 90.6%</li>
 <li>25 bp Fed rate hike: 9.4%</li>
 <li>Fed rate cut: 0.0%</li>
</ul>
A month earlier, a rate hike carried 64.2% odds. Surveys agree. About 100 economists polled by Reuters and 50 of 51 research houses also point to a pause,<a href="https://finchiefs.com/data/fed-rate-expectations" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">according to Finchiefs survey data</a>.
<h3 id="span-span-style-font-size-16px-why-officials-are-likely-to-choose-a-fed-interest-rate-hold-today-span-span">Why Officials Are Likely to Choose a Fed Interest Rate Hold Today</h3>
September’s quarter-point increase, the first since 2023, already tightened policy, and officials have shown little urgency to repeat it right away.&nbsp;
Hiring and growth have not forced action, even after a hotter <a href="https://www.coingabbar.com/en/us-ppi-inflation-rises-fed-rate-cut-meeting-october-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">September CPI and PPI readings</a> revived hike talk.&nbsp;
The approaching US midterm elections also lower the appetite for surprises. Warsh prefers not to signal decisions in advance <a href="https://x.com/cryptorover/status/2110948515006324916?a=IneZ57AEpxdFmCZx1Gg&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">during his Bangkok speech</a>. Hawkish dissents remain possible.
<img alt="Warsh Speech Key Points" src="https://d3iuzwoiyg9qa8.cloudfront.net/webadmin/storage/public/commonEditerImage/FNeXtANUvlFRKbpOwDPwluYcLsqe21njOErao7ew.png" width="300" height="280" title="Warsh Speech Key Points">
Why the Fed Rate Decision Matters for Bitcoin and Crypto Assets
Higher rates raise the cost of holding assets that pay no yield, such as Bitcoin. They also strengthen the dollar, drain crypto liquidity and make leveraged positions pricier to carry. Crypto trades as a high-beta risk asset, so the Bitcoin Fed reaction usually depends on surprises rather than the rate level.&nbsp;
<img alt="Bitcoin Fed Decision Moves" src="https://d3iuzwoiyg9qa8.cloudfront.net/webadmin/storage/public/commonEditerImage/WpPgGsVrMdyHiyqFei5x9F1pUWuoI744pumr5IDk.png" width="300" height="417" title="Bitcoin Fed Decision Moves">
Historically, Bitcoin’s median first-hour move after an FOMC release is about 0.8%–0.9%, roughly double a normal hour, <a href="https://macrorumble.com/fomc-bitcoin-price-impact" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Macro Rumble research</a> indicates. A priced-in hold may bring a small bounce, while a hawkish tone may bring selling.
<h3 id="span-span-style-font-size-16px-crypto-market-today-bitcoin-price-and-major-coins-before-the-fed-span-span">Crypto Market Today: Bitcoin Price and Major Coins Before the Fed</h3>
Ahead of the Fed rate decision, <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer">CoinMarketCap data</a> shows modest gains:
<img alt="Crypto Market Today" src="https://d3iuzwoiyg9qa8.cloudfront.net/webadmin/storage/public/commonEditerImage/Y2TPrcGAcgmNkIt5MZG9Q7qYnjgAP6JhjbVvJyA5.png" width="300" height="527" title="Crypto Market Today">
<ul>
 <li>Total market cap: $2.71T, with Fear &amp; Greed at 46 (neutral)</li>
 <li>Bitcoin price: $80,972.45 (+1.61% in 24h, -2.11% in 7d)</li>
 <li>Ethereum price:$2,355.37 (+1.97%)</li>
 <li>XRP price: $1.33 (+2.88%)</li>
 <li>30-day crypto liquidation total:$143.35M (shorts $102.16M, longs $41.19M)</li>
 <li>Open interest:$345.13B</li>
</ul>
Shorts dominate those liquidations. A dovish surprise could force more short covering, while a hawkish tone could quickly reverse the bounce.
<h3 id="span-span-style-font-size-16px-december-rate-hike-odds-markets-lean-toward-a-hike-not-a-cut-span-span">December Rate Hike Odds: Markets Lean Toward A Hike, Not a Cut</h3>
Markets expect another 25 bp hike at the December 8–9 meeting, with December rate hike odds above 77%, <a href="https://finchiefs.com/data/fed-rate-expectations" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">polymarket data</a> shows. A Fed rate cut is not in the near-term baseline.&nbsp;
September’s median dot plot pointed to roughly 4.125% by year-end, which fits one more increase. Some forecasts see a terminal rate of 4.00%–4.25% or higher, with tightening possibly stretching into 2027 if inflation stays sticky.
<h3 id="span-span-style-font-size-16px-warsh-wood-and-saylor-what-key-voices-say-about-the-fed-rate-path-span-span">Warsh, Wood and Saylor: What Key Voices Say About the Fed Rate Path</h3>
Warsh says September’s hike removed accommodation, declines to preview later meetings and points to AI investment as a major economic force alongside tightening across global economies.&nbsp;
<a href="https://x.com/CathieDWood?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cathie Wood of ARK Invest</a> praises his resolve and independence, drawing Volcker comparisons, and argues that innovation-led productivity will restrain inflation, making aggressive hikes unnecessary.&nbsp;
Strategy Co-founder <a href="https://x.com/saylor?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Michael Saylor</a> ties recent Bitcoin weakness partly to rising yields, restrictive policy, trade tensions and AI capital competition. He stays bullish long term, citing bank custody, lending and digital credit as future catalysts.&nbsp;
Traders on X broadly expect a hold, with the Kevin Warsh press conference at 2:30 PM ET as the key catalyst.
<h3 id="span-span-style-font-size-16px-bottom-line-why-warsh-s-tone-matters-more-than-the-rate-itself-today-span-span">Bottom Line: Why Warsh’s Tone Matters More Than the Rate Itself Today</h3>
The Fed rate decision looks settled. What remains open is whether Warsh treats December’s hike as a firm commitment or just an option. A firm tone would test Bitcoin’s footing above $80,000 and raise crypto liquidation risk, while softer language would give the recent bounce room to run.&nbsp;
Either way, the 2:30 PM ET press conference, not the 2:00 PM statement, will set direction for the crypto market today.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Crypto markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.&nbsp;

Fed Rate Decision Today: Bitcoin Near $81K as Warsh Speaks

Table of Contents

Coingabbar

Other articles published on Oct 28, 2026

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!