Based

bullish

Demand for BTC is diverging, with signs of weakening US activity. While Binance remains a venue for whales, the Coinbase premium points to weakening US interest.&nbsp;
US demand for BTC, as measured by the Coinbase premium, is at the lowest level since July. The negative price differential is at 0.19%, a small disparity but a signal that US traders are showing lowered demand.&nbsp;
<figure style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img src="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CoinbasePremiumOct132026.png" alt="US demand for BTC weakens with selling pressure from institutions " width="1482" height="664">
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 The Coinbase premium shifted to the red in October, showing caution from US traders, low spot demand, and institutional selling. | Source: <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/coinbase-bitcoin-premium-index" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coinglass</a>
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The Coinbase premium index turned more negative in October, as BTC moved in a range between $80,000 and $85,000. The recovery from the summer’s lower range did not arrive with buying enthusiasm, but rather with selling pressure from US whales.&nbsp;
US trading hours are also linked to <a href="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/crypto-etf-investors-withdraw-1-25-billion/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">institutional activity</a>, as ETFs take up or shed more BTC holdings.&nbsp;
<h3 id="span-style-font-weight-400-coinbase-reflects-institutional-demand-for-btc-span">Coinbase reflects institutional demand for BTC</h3>
Based on analysis by @darkfrost, the Coinbase premium index is heavily skewed toward institutional activities. Coinbase remains a professional account platform, while Binance reflects the behaviors of all types of investors, including retail and risky crypto whales.&nbsp;
The two types of investors have different behaviors and objectives, with US professional traders trying to remain conservative and lock in returns from the latest BTC recovery.&nbsp;
US institutions are also more responsive to the shifting <a href="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bessent-us-could-seize-iran-crypto-this-week/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">geopolitical tensions</a> in the war with Iran, as well as local economic and market factors. The latest downturn in US demand for BTC for now cannot be offset by Binance retail buyers.&nbsp;
The recent behavior of US institutions also signals low confidence in BTC and crypto as a whole, though a readiness to use any rallies to lock in gains. BTC now trades in a high-yield environment, with global uncertainty and rising energy prices, leaving institutions less willing to take risks and allocate liquidity.&nbsp;
In this situation, BTC has not been kept as a tool against inflation, due to its relatively high volatility. Any excess liquidity moves to equities and the tech sector, or the broader S&amp;P 500 index.
At the same time, BTC sees ongoing silent accumulation into addresses holding <a href="https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-100-btc/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">100-1000 coins</a>. Those addresses broke new records with 20,384 wallets in total, adding around 1,000 new whales over the course of 2026. Older cohorts are also holding for the long term, although <a href="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bitcoin-miners-shut-off-hashing-for-ai-cash/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">miners</a> decreased their activity and sold more of their reserves.&nbsp;
<h3 id="span-style-font-weight-400-btc-sentiment-remains-neutral-span">BTC sentiment remains neutral</h3>
BTC sentiment returned to <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/fear-and-greed-index/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">55 points</a>, signifying neutral positioning, after spending several days in the greed zone above 70 points.&nbsp;
The main driver of trader sentiment is the recent liquidations, targeting long positions as BTC dipped from its recent levels down to the $81,000 range.&nbsp;
In the past months, BTC demand has also shifted quickly. BTC buyers appear as the coin slides closer to $80,000, and treasury companies still hold or acquire more coins.&nbsp;
<figure style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img src="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/BTCDemandOct132026.png" alt="US demand for BTC weakens with selling pressure from institutions " width="1850" height="764">
 <figcaption>
 BTC spot demand remains weak, while derivative market demand shifts quickly during more volatile trading periods. | Source: <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/analytics/query/69e909d46aae2d16bb46e9df?v=69e909d46aae2d16bb46e9e3" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cryptoquant</a>
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The current BTC conditions are seen as a potential signal for a larger recovery, though traders and investors prefer to remain cautious and not over-allocate until receiving more bullish signs.
BTC volatility is also increasing, from 0.90% in August to <a href="https://bitbo.io/volatility/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">1.52%</a> for the last 30 days. Volatility is historically lower as a percentage, but still signals more cautious trading and an immediate reaction to changing conditions, rather than confident holding. 
In October, futures demand renewed for BTC, though spot demand remains weak.&nbsp;
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US BTC activity shows signs of weakness as demand diverges

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