Canary

Stargate Finance

Staked TRX

TRON

<ul>
 <li><strong>TRX has fallen back to its 200-day moving average.</strong></li>
 <li><strong>Two rejections at $0.35 have formed an unconfirmed double top.</strong></li>
 <li><strong>Three support levels sit close together below the current price.</strong></li>
 <li><strong>A US staked TRX ETF and several integrations launched in September without a price reaction.</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>TRON (TRX) has fallen back to its 200-day moving average for the first time since the June recovery began, trading at $0.3332 on October 7 after sellers rejected the price at $0.35 twice in five weeks. The average stands at $0.3321 and marks the first of three support levels packed into roughly 3% of downside. A daily close below it would put the $0.3225 floor of the seven-week range under direct pressure and bring an unconfirmed double top one step from completion.</p>
<figure style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img src="https://ethnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/trxusdt-tradingview-07-09-2026.jpg" alt="TRON daily chart showing a double top below resistance with rising support and bearish RSI divergence." width="1280" height="740">
 <figcaption>
  TRX/USDT daily chart. Source: Alexander Stefanov on TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="rsi-dropped-from-73-to-62-between-the-two-peaks-at-0-35">RSI dropped from 73 to 62 between the two peaks at $0.35</h2>
<p>TRX peaked near $0.377 in late May and lost roughly 17% in two weeks, reaching a low around $0.311 in mid June. The recovery that followed was slow and orderly. Each pullback ended higher than the previous one, at $0.311, then about $0.3165, then $0.3225, and those three lows define the rising trendline on the daily chart.</p>
<p>Buyers pushed the price to $0.35 in late August and could not hold it. TRX dropped to $0.3225 at the start of September, climbed back within three weeks and failed at almost the same level. Three observations support reading those two peaks as a double top, a pattern in which a second failure at the same price often precedes a decline:</p>
<ul>
 <li>The RSI reached about 73 at the first peak and only about 62 at the second, which means the second attempt had visibly less buying pressure behind it at the same price.</li>
 <li>Trading volume was the highest of the entire range at the first peak and lower at the second, where the largest daily bar was a selling day.</li>
 <li>Every bounce since the second peak has stopped lower than the one before, at roughly $0.349, $0.341 and $0.337.</li>
</ul>
<p>The pattern is not confirmed. That requires a daily close below $0.3225, the low between the two peaks, and until it happens the chart shows a range with a warning attached.</p>
<h2 id="0-3321-0-327-and-0-3225-three-supports-inside-3-of-the-price">$0.3321, $0.327 and $0.3225: three supports inside 3% of the price</h2>
<div style="margin: 22px 0; border-radius: 10px; overflow: hidden; border: 1px solid #dfe5ee; font-size: 15px;">
 <div style="background: linear-gradient(90deg,#0b1f3a,#1d4079); color: #ffffff; padding: 14px 18px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 16px;">
  TRX price ladder: resistance above, support below
 </div>
 <div style="display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; gap: 8px 16px; padding: 14px 18px; background: #fdf3f3; border-left: 6px solid #d64545; border-bottom: 1px solid #f0dada; color: #1a2433;">
  <div style="flex: 0 0 150px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px;">
   $0.35
  </div>
  <div style="flex: 1 1 240px;"><span style="display: inline-block; background: #d64545; color: #ffffff; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; padding: 3px 9px; border-radius: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">RESISTANCE</span><br> Range ceiling, rejected in late August and late September. A daily close above cancels the double top.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; gap: 8px 16px; padding: 14px 18px; background: #fef8f6; border-left: 6px solid #e58a6f; border-bottom: 1px solid #f0dada; color: #1a2433;">
  <div style="flex: 0 0 150px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px;">
   $0.337 – $0.341
  </div>
  <div style="flex: 1 1 240px;"><span style="display: inline-block; background: #e58a6f; color: #ffffff; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; padding: 3px 9px; border-radius: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">LOWER HIGHS</span><br> The two most recent failed bounces. A daily close above ends the sequence of lower highs.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; gap: 8px 16px; padding: 14px 18px; background: #0b1f3a; border-left: 6px solid #f2b63c; color: #ffffff;">
  <div style="flex: 0 0 150px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 20px; color: #f2b63c;">
   $0.3332
  </div>
  <div style="flex: 1 1 240px;"><span style="display: inline-block; background: #f2b63c; color: #0b1f3a; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; padding: 3px 9px; border-radius: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">TRX PRICE, OCTOBER 7</span>
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; gap: 8px 16px; padding: 14px 18px; background: #f1faf5; border-left: 6px solid #1f9d6b; border-bottom: 1px solid #d7ecdf; color: #1a2433;">
  <div style="flex: 0 0 150px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px;">
   $0.3321
  </div>
  <div style="flex: 1 1 240px;"><span style="display: inline-block; background: #1f9d6b; color: #ffffff; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; padding: 3px 9px; border-radius: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">SUPPORT 1</span><br> 200-day SMA and a horizontal pivot at the same level. A daily close below exposes the trendline.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; gap: 8px 16px; padding: 14px 18px; background: #f6fcf8; border-left: 6px solid #1f9d6b; border-bottom: 1px solid #d7ecdf; color: #1a2433;">
  <div style="flex: 0 0 150px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px;">
   About $0.327
  </div>
  <div style="flex: 1 1 240px;"><span style="display: inline-block; background: #1f9d6b; color: #ffffff; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; padding: 3px 9px; border-radius: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">SUPPORT 2</span><br> Rising trendline from the June low. A daily close below leaves only the range floor.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; gap: 8px 16px; padding: 14px 18px; background: #f1faf5; border-left: 6px solid #14694a; color: #1a2433;">
  <div style="flex: 0 0 150px; font-weight: bold; font-size: 18px;">
   $0.3225
  </div>
  <div style="flex: 1 1 240px;"><span style="display: inline-block; background: #14694a; color: #ffffff; font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; padding: 3px 9px; border-radius: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">SUPPORT 3 – RANGE FLOOR</span><br> Tested in mid July and early September. A daily close below confirms the double top.
  </div>
 </div>
</div>
<p>The intraday low of $0.3318 on October 7 dipped just under the average before buyers stepped in. The RSI stands at 44, below both its own average of 47 and the 50 midpoint. That reading shows sellers with a modest advantage, and it is far from the oversold zone where rebounds usually start, so the price has room to fall further before momentum alone attracts buyers. Volume of about 56 million TRX is low for this range. Holders are not exiting in size.</p>
<h2 id="a-rising-200-day-average-keeps-the-long-term-uptrend-intact">A rising 200-day average keeps the long-term uptrend intact</h2>
<p>The 200-day simple moving average is the mean closing price of the last 200 days, about six and a half months of trading, and many funds and rule-based strategies use it as the dividing line between a long-term uptrend and a downtrend. For TRX the average is still rising, which tells us the long-term trend has not reversed despite the 12% distance from the May peak. At $0.3321 it also coincides with a horizontal level where the price has turned before, and two independent references at one price tend to concentrate buy orders there.</p>
<p>A daily close below it would be the first technical damage to the long-term structure since June. The trendline near $0.327 would then be the only support left above the range floor, and a trendline that rises every day leaves less room with each session.</p>
<p>The daily close matters for the double top for a similar reason. Intraday dips below a floor are frequently bought back within hours, while a close below it shows that sellers controlled the level through the end of the session.</p>
<h2 id="a-close-below-0-3225-targets-0-295-a-close-above-0-35-targets-0-3775">A close below $0.3225 targets $0.295, a close above $0.35 targets $0.3775</h2>
<div style="display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: 14px; margin: 22px 0; font-size: 15px;">
 <div style="flex: 1 1 220px; background: #ffffff; border: 1px solid #dfe5ee; border-top: 6px solid #d64545; border-radius: 10px; padding: 16px 18px; color: #1a2433;">
  <div style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 17px; color: #d64545; margin-bottom: 10px;">
   ▼ Bearish
  </div>
  <div style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; color: #6b7686; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">
   TRIGGER
  </div>
  <div style="margin-bottom: 10px;">
   Daily close below $0.332, then below $0.3225
  </div>
  <div style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; color: #6b7686; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">
   LEVELS ON THE WAY
  </div>
  <div style="margin-bottom: 12px;">
   $0.327, $0.3225, $0.3165, $0.311
  </div>
  <div style="background: #fdf3f3; border-radius: 6px; padding: 10px 12px; font-weight: bold;">
   Pattern target: about $0.295
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="flex: 1 1 220px; background: #ffffff; border: 1px solid #dfe5ee; border-top: 6px solid #1f9d6b; border-radius: 10px; padding: 16px 18px; color: #1a2433;">
  <div style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 17px; color: #1f9d6b; margin-bottom: 10px;">
   ▲ Bullish
  </div>
  <div style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; color: #6b7686; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">
   TRIGGER
  </div>
  <div style="margin-bottom: 10px;">
   Hold above the 200-day SMA, close above $0.341, then above $0.35
  </div>
  <div style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; color: #6b7686; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">
   LEVELS ON THE WAY
  </div>
  <div style="margin-bottom: 12px;">
   $0.337, $0.341, $0.35
  </div>
  <div style="background: #f1faf5; border-radius: 6px; padding: 10px 12px; font-weight: bold;">
   Pattern target: about $0.3775
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="flex: 1 1 220px; background: #ffffff; border: 1px solid #dfe5ee; border-top: 6px solid #7a8699; border-radius: 10px; padding: 16px 18px; color: #1a2433;">
  <div style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 17px; color: #55617a; margin-bottom: 10px;">
   ▬ Neutral
  </div>
  <div style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; color: #6b7686; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">
   CONDITION
  </div>
  <div style="margin-bottom: 10px;">
   Price stays between $0.3225 and $0.35
  </div>
  <div style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; color: #6b7686; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">
   WHAT IT MEANS
  </div>
  <div style="margin-bottom: 12px;">
   The range continues and both patterns stay open
  </div>
  <div style="background: #f4f6fa; border-radius: 6px; padding: 10px 12px; font-weight: bold;">
   No target while inside the range
  </div>
 </div>
</div>
<p>Both targets come from the same arithmetic. The range is $0.0275 high, and chart practice projects that height from the point of the break. Subtracted from the $0.3225 floor it gives about $0.295. Added to the $0.35 ceiling it gives about $0.3775, which matches the May peak. These are projections that traders use for orientation, and neither is a forecast.</p>
<h2 id="a-staked-trx-etf-and-six-integrations-failed-to-lift-the-price-past-0-35">A staked TRX ETF and six integrations failed to lift the price past $0.35</h2>
<p>The second rejection at $0.35 came in the same month as a US ETF launch and six network integrations:</p>
<div style="margin: 22px 0; padding: 6px 0 6px 4px; font-size: 15px; color: #1a2433;">
 <div style="border-left: 3px solid #1d4079; padding: 0 0 18px 18px;">
  <p><span style="display: inline-block; background: #0b1f3a; color: #ffffff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 20px;">SEP 8</span></p>
  <div style="font-weight: bold; margin: 6px 0 4px 0;">
   Trust Wallet and Tronify
  </div>
  <div>
   Trust Wallet now rents energy, the network resource that covers transaction costs, automatically when users send TRC-20 tokens such as USDT. The companies cite savings of up to 40% against standard fees.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="border-left: 3px solid #1d4079; padding: 0 0 18px 18px;">
  <p><span style="display: inline-block; background: #d64545; color: #ffffff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 20px;">SEP 9</span></p>
  <div style="font-weight: bold; margin: 6px 0 4px 0;">
   Canary Staked TRX ETF (TRXS)
  </div>
  <div>
   The fund began trading on Cboe BZX as the first US ETF with direct spot exposure to TRX. Canary filed the S-1 in April 2025, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002064768/000199937126020129/trx-424b3_090826.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">expects to stake at least 90% of the trust’s TRX</a> under ordinary conditions and charges a 1.10% annual sponsor fee. BitGo Trust Company holds the tokens. TRX had a market cap of $32.1 billion at launch, against $31.65 billion now, according to CoinMarketCap.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="border-left: 3px solid #1d4079; padding: 0 0 18px 18px;">
  <p><span style="display: inline-block; background: #0b1f3a; color: #ffffff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 20px;">SEP 10</span></p>
  <div style="font-weight: bold; margin: 6px 0 4px 0;">
   MetaMask connectivity
  </div>
  <div>
   TRON DAO said B.AI, SUN.io, JustLend DAO and BitTorrent now accept MetaMask connections, letting users transfer TRX and USDT and execute swaps inside the wallet. SUN.io reports over $650 million in total value locked.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="border-left: 3px solid #1d4079; padding: 0 0 18px 18px;">
  <p><span style="display: inline-block; background: #0b1f3a; color: #ffffff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 20px;">SEP 11</span></p>
  <div style="font-weight: bold; margin: 6px 0 4px 0;"><a href="https://ethnews.com/ethena-ena-jumps-84-on-vc-buyout-and-fee-switch-plan/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ethena’s USDe and sUSDe</a>
  </div>
  <div>
   Both tokens went live on TRON through a Stargate Finance bridge. The announcement cites more than 403 million TRON accounts and over $94 billion in USDT on the network.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="border-left: 3px solid #1d4079; padding: 0 0 18px 18px;">
  <p><span style="display: inline-block; background: #0b1f3a; color: #ffffff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 20px;">SEP 17</span></p>
  <div style="font-weight: bold; margin: 6px 0 4px 0;">
   Ducat
  </div>
  <div>
   The Bitcoin-native credit protocol added settlement in TRC-20 USDT and launched wUNIT, a TRON version of its Bitcoin-backed dollar, with a dedicated liquidity pool against USDT.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="border-left: 3px solid #1d4079; padding: 0 0 18px 18px;">
  <p><span style="display: inline-block; background: #0b1f3a; color: #ffffff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 20px;">SEP 23</span></p>
  <div style="font-weight: bold; margin: 6px 0 4px 0;">
   Privy
  </div>
  <div>
   The Stripe-owned wallet infrastructure provider expanded its transaction, transfer, policy and monitoring tools for TRON. Onafriq and Paystack are already building wallet and treasury products on the combination.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="border-left: 3px solid #1d4079; padding: 0 0 18px 18px;">
  <p><span style="display: inline-block; background: #0b1f3a; color: #ffffff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 20px;">SEP 24</span></p>
  <div style="font-weight: bold; margin: 6px 0 4px 0;">
   OpenZeppelin
  </div>
  <div>
   Its <a href="https://www.openzeppelin.com/news/openzeppelin-brings-its-security-standard-to-the-tron-network" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">audited contract libraries</a>, upgrade tools and Contracts Wizard became available for TRON, compatible with Hardhat, Foundry and TronBox. S&amp;P Global announced a <a href="https://www.openzeppelin.com/news/spglobal-enters-agreement-to-acquire-openzeppelin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">commitment to acquire OpenZeppelin</a> days earlier.
  </div>
 </div>
 <div style="border-left: 3px dashed #9aa6b8; padding: 0 0 4px 18px;">
  <p><span style="display: inline-block; background: #7a8699; color: #ffffff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px; border-radius: 20px;">EARLIER: DEC 18, 2025</span></p>
  <div style="font-weight: bold; margin: 6px 0 4px 0;">
   Kalshi
  </div>
  <div>
   The prediction market’s support for TRX and USDT deposits and withdrawals on TRON predates this batch and remains the latest announcement between the two.
  </div>
 </div>
</div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 <p>September marked another month of growth, milestones, and momentum across the TRON ecosystem. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f680.png" alt="🚀" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;"></p>
 <p>Explore the highlights and see what’s new across <a href="https://x.com/hashtag/TRON?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">#TRON</a> this month <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f447.png" alt="👇" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;"><a href="https://t.co/MDWJUkeiJc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/MDWJUkeiJc</a></p>
 <p>— TRON DAO (@trondao) <a href="https://x.com/trondao/status/2107520387357835491?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">October 6, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="trxs-staking-locks-up-supply-while-energy-rental-cuts-the-trx-burn">TRXS staking locks up supply while energy rental cuts the TRX burn</h2>
<p>Most of these integrations serve stablecoin activity on TRON, and they affect demand for TRX only indirectly, through fees and staking. Two of them touch the token’s supply directly, in opposite directions. TRXS had 89.91% of its holdings staked as of October 5, so growth in the fund takes TRX out of liquid circulation. With about $50.5 million in net assets against a $31.65 billion token, that effect is negligible so far. Automated energy rental does the reverse to the burn mechanism: users who rent energy do not burn TRX to pay for transfers, and Cryptobriefing’s coverage of the Tronify integration notes that the burn rate could fall if the practice spreads through a wallet the size of Trust Wallet.</p>
<p>On the chart, the first dated test is the daily close relative to $0.332. JustLend DAO and SUN.io support for USDe and sUSDe is expected in the coming weeks, which will show whether Ethena’s tokens attract deposits on TRON or remain a bridged balance. TRXS will publish its first staking yield after the December quarter-end, the figure that will show whether the 1.10% fee leaves holders a net return.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://ethnews.com/tron-price-analysis-trx-at-200-day-sma-a-month-after-us-etf-debut/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TRON Price Analysis: TRX at 200-Day SMA a Month After US ETF Debut</a> appeared first on <a href="https://ethnews.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETHNews</a>.</p>

TRON Price Analysis: TRX at 200-Day SMA a Month After US ETF Debut

Table of Contents

ETHNews

Other articles published on Oct 7, 2026

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!