BlackRock

Chair

<p>On October 2, bitcoin surpassed 86000 dollars. It also briefly approached 87100 dollars, supported by the recovery of ETF inflows and the liquidation of short positions. Then, the price retreated around 85400 dollars, indicating that the favorable start of October does not yet guarantee a sustained increase.</p>
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  <h2 class="in-brief--title" id="in-brief">In brief</h2>
  <ul>
   <li>Bitcoin rose above $86,000 and approached $87,100 before pulling back.</li>
   <li>Short-position liquidations accelerated the price increase.</li>
   <li>U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to net inflows.</li>
   <li>Expectations around the Fed also supported risk assets.</li>
   <li>The prospect of another “Uptober” will depend mainly on ETF flows and spot buying.</li>
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<h2 id="bitcoin-surpasses-86000-before-pulling-back">Bitcoin surpasses $86000 before pulling back</h2>
<p>Bitcoin gained about 3% during the session to near its highest level in a week. Its <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-starts-october-at-85k-eyes-95k/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">rebound above $85000</a> accelerated the movement by forcing some traders betting on a drop to buy back their positions.</p>
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<p><a href="https://decrypt.co/379932/uptober-off-with-a-bang-as-bitcoin-surges-to-86k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Multiple data</a> provide a better understanding of this recovery :</p>
<ul>
 <li>The price reached an intraday high close to $87100 ;</li>
 <li>More than $120 million in bitcoin short positions were liquidated in 24 hours ;</li>
 <li>US spot bitcoin ETFs received $102.7 million on October 1st ;</li>
 <li>US bond yields fell with expectations of a Federal Reserve pause ;</li>
 <li>Bitcoin remains well below its record of about $126200 reached in October 2025.</li>
</ul>
<p>It should be noted that a short position liquidation can occur as soon as the price rises enough to force a trader to close their bearish bet. This forced acquisition then consolidates demand and may accelerate the rise. In this case, passing through the resistance zones located between 85000 and 86000 dollars triggered this cascade effect.</p>
<h2 id="etfs-regain-a-positive-balance">ETFs regain a positive balance</h2>
<p>Since October 1st, US Bitcoin ETFs have resumed inflows. Their daily balance reached $102.7 million, after a net outflow of $148.7 million on September 30, according to Farside data.</p>
<p>Through its IBIT fund, BlackRock collected $195.6 million. These inflows thus offset outflows observed at Fidelity, Bitwise, Ark Invest, Invesco, VanEck, and Grayscale.</p>
<p>However, this recovery remains modest compared to September’s flows. Bitcoin ETFs captured $2.65 billion over the month, after $3.52 billion in August. For the third quarter, it totals $6.34 billion in net inflows.</p>
<p>The $86000 threshold also holds a technical dimension. Glassnode presents it as an average zone from which US ETF investors regain their breakeven price. Staying above this level could therefore reduce the number of institutional investors with unrealized losses.</p>
<h2 id="bitcoin-benefits-from-fed-pause-hopes">Bitcoin benefits from Fed pause hopes</h2>
<p>This increase was also favored by the macroeconomic context. Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/feds-vice-chair-warns-inflation-remains-high-but-fed-needs-time-to-assess-rates-181738105.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kZWNyeXB0LmNvLw&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANwhjZicxeeDA49gOh0BS79gha92Hhu4Y3gEmKbBn8P9-2k9JL67Uvb5Velpx6HtMu7fB8Vap6Pas0knRpz5H10TpoR4ryzV1_3kv8VcbbNumPbWHEX8Eyn4iJUuLVViwYxi50zb7tdF0w-iFm1vjpjnR2u0mV2iTHm8uaKrREt5" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">advocated</a> for more patience before a new rate decision. Expectations of an increase at the next meeting were revised downward following these remarks.</p>
<p>Low rates can thus support bitcoin in two ways. They can reduce the relative appeal of bond investments and facilitate the return of capital to risky assets. Additionally, they can also weigh on the dollar, which tends to favor assets denominated in the US currency.</p>
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<p>Thus, bitcoin advanced alongside tech stocks and crypto-related companies. Strategy stock gained about 4%, while Coinbase and Robinhood also moved higher.</p>
<p>However, this relationship remains fragile. Strong US employment statistics would revive rate hike fears, push up bond yields, and strengthen the dollar. These three factors could therefore exert opposite pressure on cryptos.</p>
<h2 id="h-uptober-remains-a-statistical-trend">Uptober remains a statistical trend</h2>
<p>This start of the month fuels the Uptober narrative, a nickname given to October due to bitcoin’s historical performances. According to Stephen Wundke, Chief Strategy Officer at Algoz, bitcoin has averaged an 18% gain in October and 46% over the last quarter during the past decade.</p>
<p>He thus states:</p>
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 <p>Traders currently believe the upside potential outweighs the downside risk.</p>
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<p>However, this average masks significant differences between years. It does not specify that bitcoin systematically rebounds in October. The current rise mainly depends on the continuation of spot purchases, while part of the movement comes from futures market liquidations.</p>
<p>The quick return below $86000 confirms this caution. To turn this rebound into a stronger trend, bitcoin must hold above this area with high spot volumes as well as <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/etf-bitcoin-les-flux-de-2026-repassent-enfin-dans-le-vert/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">sustainable ETF flows</a>. Without these supports, the effect of short position buybacks would remain temporary.</p>

Bitcoin’s Uptober Start Lifts Price Above $86,000

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