Bitcoin (BTC) opened September 2026 with a 1% decline, pulling back below $78,000 as traders weighed a fresh set of macroeconomic pressures against the momentum built up over the previous month.August marked <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer">BTC's</a> strongest monthly performance since November 2024, with a gain of roughly 25%, and its best August since 2017, according to LMAX Group Market Strategist Joel Kruger.The calendar itself presents a headwind. Since 2013, September has been Bitcoin's weakest month on average, producing a loss of roughly 3% and generating only five positive monthly closes. Traders have long called it "Rektember." The past three Septembers have each ended in positive territory for BTC, though that streak has done little to calm nerves given the current macro backdrop. September is also the only month since 1975 in which the S&amp;P 500 has averaged a negative return.<h2 id="fed-rate-hike-bets-drive-bond-sell-off">Fed Rate Hike Bets Drive Bond Sell-Off</h2>Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech to stress elevated inflation, which sparked a sell-off in government bonds across global markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.784%, reaching a new cycle high. Markets are now <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pricing </a>in a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/federal-open-market-committee-fomc" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)</a> meeting scheduled for Sept. 16. If that hike is followed by a second one before year-end, the federal funds target range would reach 4.00-4.25%. Higher rates typically tighten financial conditions and weigh on risk assets while pushing the US dollar higher.Middle East tensions have added another layer of pressure. Continuing US military strikes against Iran have driven Brent crude above $90 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate reached $88 per barrel on Sept. 1, up 2% in 24 hours and the highest price since late July. Gold fell more than 2% the same day. Kruger said BTC's ability to hold its August gains despite higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and active geopolitical stress was a notable show of resilience from the asset.Related Article:<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/what-is-a-bitcoin-etf" rel="noopener noreferrer"></a><a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/debasement-trade-crypto-bear-market-ends-bitcoin-100k" rel="noopener noreferrer">Is 100K Bitcoin Up Next? Bear Market Fades as Debasement Trade Begins</a><h2 id="price-levels-traders-are-watching-into-fomc">Price Levels Traders Are Watching Into FOMC</h2>BTC briefly traded above $81,000 the prior week before retreating below $78,000 after Warsh's speech. The asset then closed the week nearly flat after posting a 23% gain the week before. Spot Bitcoin<a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/glossary/exchange-traded-fund-etf" rel="noopener noreferrer"> exchange-traded funds (ETFs)</a> recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling $924 million before a single-day outflow of $202 million on Friday, Aug. 29.Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at crypto market maker Wintermute, said $75,000 and $82,000 are the two levels the market is focused on heading into the Sept. 16 rate decision. Wintermute expects BTC to stay choppy until the FOMC outcome is known, with resistance near $82,000 and support at $75,000 and $72,000. De Maere said under-allocated investors have been buying dips, which has helped put a floor under the price.Kruger identified $80,000 to $82,820 as the range BTC needs to break above on a sustained basis to open a path back toward $100,000. The next major data point is the US nonfarm payrolls report due Sept. 5. Economists expect August job growth of 55,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, according to Capital(dot)com senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda. A weaker-than-expected result could cast doubt on whether the Fed would follow through with a rate hike into a weakening labor market, Rodda said.

Bitcoin Enters 'Rektember' Below $78K With Fed Hike at 66% Probability

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