Robinhood

World

Polymarket

Robinhood now quotes set-by-set odds on Denis Shapovalov's Los Cabos opener, one slice of a book that traded more than 16 billion contracts in 2026.
<h2 id="key-points">Key Points:</h2>
<blockquote>
 <ul>
 <li>Robinhood is listing first set, second set and exact score contracts on Shapovalov's opening match at the Mifel Tennis Open.</li>
 <li>The brokerage does not run the exchange behind those markets, sourcing them instead from Kalshi, ForecastEx and Rothera.</li>
 <li>Kalshi supplies Robinhood while naming it a leading competitor, and Robinhood is now in talks with Crypto.com.</li>
 </ul>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="robinhood-tennis-contracts-cover-shapovalov-match">Robinhood Tennis Contracts Cover Shapovalov Match</h2>
Robinhood's prediction markets hub <a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/tennis/events/denis-shapovalov-vs-rinky-hijikata-set-2-winner-jul-28-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">lists</a> separate contracts on the first set, the second set and the exact final score in Shapovalov's opening match against Rinky Hijikata.
The Canadian <a href="https://loscabostennisopen.com/en/2026/07/25/the-draw-for-the-mifel-tennis-open-by-telcel-oppo-is-set-for-its-10th-anniversary/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">drew</a> the Australian in the first round at the Mifel Tennis Open in Baja California Sur, arriving as defending champion, seeded eighth and ranked No. 67. Hijikata sits at No. 96.
Each contract pays a dollar if the prediction lands, settles in cash, and asks nothing of the buyer beyond a funded brokerage account. No wallet, no token, no separate exchange login.
The tennis catalog reaches far past the ATP tour, posting game spreads, total games and match winners across minor circuit events in Spain, Kazakhstan and Britain on a single afternoon.
Volume has followed that breadth. Robinhood <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/409665/robinhood-in-talks-to-add-crypto-com-prediction-markets-as-kalshi-rivalry-grows-wsj" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">traded</a> more than 16 billion event contracts across all categories in 2026, against more than 12 billion in the whole of 2025, a pace that has turned event contracts into one of its fastest growing lines.
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<h2 id="kalshi-rivalry-splits-prediction-market-supply">Kalshi Rivalry Splits Prediction Market Supply</h2>
The brokerage does not operate the exchange behind any of those tennis markets, a point disclosed in the fine print of every contract page. It sources contracts from Kalshi, the Interactive Brokers unit ForecastEx and Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse that Robinhood backed alongside Susquehanna International Group in 2025.
Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour<a href="https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/robinhood-in-talks-with-cryptocom-as-predictionmarkets-race-intensifies--wsj-4812655" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">told</a> reporters in June that he counts Robinhood among his largest competitors, even as his exchange keeps supplying the brokerage with contracts. That arrangement is fraying.
Robinhood has since opened talks with Crypto.com about carrying its event contracts, and analysts say the brokerage accounts for a shrinking share of Kalshi volume since Rothera went live.
Bernstein lifted its Robinhood price target to $160 last month and projects prediction market revenue of $1.7 billion by 2028. The brokerage counts more than 27 million funded accounts, and over a million of those customers already trade event contracts, a distribution base no prediction market specialist can match today.
<h2 id="polymarket-regulatory-push-reshaped-the-field">Polymarket Regulatory Push Reshaped The Field</h2>
The competitive map looked different a year ago. Polymarket<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/11/25/polymarket-secures-cftc-approval-for-regulated-u-s-return" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">won</a> a CFTC amended order in November 2025 permitting intermediated US access, then filed on Apr. 28, 2026, seeking approval to open its offshore exchange to American traders.
Kalshi still <a href="https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2026/prediction-market-data-volume-polymarket-kalshi-world-cup-1234939529/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ranked</a> first in notional volume through the World Cup, where its contracts drew roughly $27 billion against about $1 billion for Super Bowl markets.
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Shapovalov's Los Cabos Opener Now Trades On Robinhood, One Set At A Time

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