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Polymarket

<h2 id="span-tldr-span">TLDR:</h2><ul><li>Polymarket political bets from U.S.-linked wallets reached $571 million in 12 months, topping every other tracked country despite the ban.</li><li>Allium said country-level wallet tags cover only about 6% of political-market wallets, making the data directional rather than exact.</li><li>U.S.-linked wallets favored geopolitical prediction markets, with foreign conflict bets taking a larger share than election contracts.</li><li>American wallets won resolved bets at nearly the same rate as other users, showing bolder positioning rather than a clear trading edge.</li></ul>Polymarket political bets from U.S.-linked wallets reached about $571 million over the past year, even though the platform cannot legally serve American users. The figure, reported by on-chain analysis firm Allium, placed the United States ahead of every other tracked country. Hong Kong followed with $422 million in political market volume.The <a href="https://www.allium.so/reports/us-traders-polymarket-biggest-political-crowd-despite-ban" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">data </a>highlights a sharp gap between official restrictions and actual user behavior. <a href="https://blockonomi.com/polymarket-hack-3m-drained-in-supply-chain-frontend-attack/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket </a>blocks U.S. users through IP checks. Yet crypto wallets, stablecoins, and VPN access appear to keep the offshore market open to American traders.<h2 id="b-polymarket-political-bets-expose-weak-u-s-access-controls-b">Polymarket Political Bets Expose Weak U.S. Access Controls</h2>Polymarket political bets show how hard geographic blocks are to enforce on crypto rails. A traditional financial platform can reject an account, block a bank payment, or stop a broker connection. Polymarket works differently, as users interact through wallets and stablecoins.<img src="https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F89c85ba20fbb591a6d3a08fd8934a9a5fa78a8a1-1526x1362.png%3Fauto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;q=75" alt="(Shaurya Malwa/CoinDesk)">That structure leaves fewer points of control. A VPN can mask a location, while a crypto wallet can settle trades without a bank in the middle. Allium’s tracking looked at wallet behavior instead of IP addresses, so the same VPN that bypasses access controls does not erase on-chain patterns.The firm added an important limit. It can link only about 6% of <a href="https://parameter.io/polymarket-under-fire-senators-and-lawsuit-target-alleged-secret-influencer-payments/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">political-market wallets</a> to a specific country. That means the $571 million figure should not be treated as a precise total. Still, the scale points to strong U.S. demand for offshore prediction markets.The finding also raises a harder regulatory question. Polymarket’s ban may satisfy a legal access rule, yet it does not fully stop U.S.-linked wallets from trading. Instead, activity moves to a venue outside direct U.S. oversight.<h2 id="b-geopolitical-markets-pull-more-u-s-linked-wallet-activity-b">Geopolitical Markets Pull More U.S.-Linked Wallet Activity</h2>The bigger surprise is what American wallets traded. U.S.-linked wallets put 46% of their political volume into geopolitics, compared with 36% across Polymarket overall. Elections accounted for only 16% of U.S. volume, while the full platform average stood near 32%.That split suggests American traders used <a href="https://moneycheck.com/polymarket-under-fire-lawmakers-push-cftc-probe-after-1-9m-fake-betting-scandal/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket </a>political bets less for election speculation and more for foreign conflict markets. Iran-related contracts were especially active. Five of the twelve largest U.S. wallet markets involved bets linked to an Iran conflict.At one stage, American wallets placed 53% of their volume on a U.S. invasion of Iran. The rest of the platform stood at 26% on the same theme. That gap shows higher conviction among U.S.-linked wallets, though not better accuracy.The largest single U.S.-linked market was more unusual. A contract on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit drew $20.8 million in trading volume. That market shows how offshore prediction markets list contracts that regulated U.S. venues often avoid.Kalshi and compliant <a href="https://coincentral.com/kalshi-and-polymarket-face-spotify-pushback-after-fake-streams-settled-bets/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">U.S. prediction venues</a> focus more on elections, economic data, and rate decisions. Offshore polymarket markets include ceasefires, regime change, and war-related outcomes. That difference appears to pull U.S.-linked wallets toward the markets domestic rules restrict.Resolved market data did not show a major U.S. betting edge. American wallets backed winners 81.9% of the time, close to 80.3% for other users. The main distinction was not accuracy. It was stronger interest in politically sensitive markets beyond U.S. regulatory reach.The post <a href="https://blockonomi.com/polymarket-political-bets-hit-571m-as-u-s-ban-faces-fresh-test/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket Political Bets Hit $571M as U.S. Ban Faces Fresh Test</a> appeared first on <a href="https://blockonomi.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Blockonomi</a>.

Polymarket Political Bets Hit $571M as U.S. Ban Faces Fresh Test

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