<p>As the first half of 2026 ended,&nbsp;Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly above $62,500. The leading cryptocurrency is trading 50% lower than the all-time high (ATH) of&nbsp;$126,080 that it hit on&nbsp;Oct. 6, 2025.</p>
<p>In fact, June 2026 saw the U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Bitcoin post the worst performance since their launch. The month witnessed an outflow of more than $4.50 billion.</p>
<p>The total crypto market cap declined to $2.2 trillion at press time, nearly half of the $4.3 trillion cap at the peak in early October last year.</p>
<p>Amidst this chaos, <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/fidelity-unveils-hidden-driver-behind-portfolio-return-surge" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Fidelity </a><a href="https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/crypto-winter" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">released</a> a report on June 29,&nbsp;"What might end the crypto winter?" The asset manager highlighted five factors that could bring an end to the crypto winter.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/bitcoin-sinks-lower-as-traders-brace-for-45000" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Bitcoin sinks lower as traders brace for $45,000</a></strong></p>
<h2 id="4-year-cycle">4-year cycle</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/investing/bitcoins-latest-halving-cycle-is-raising-a-big-question" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin halving</a> is an event in which the mining reward is halved&nbsp;every four years. The process&nbsp;reduces new Bitcoin supply entering circulation so that the cryptocurrency remains a scare asset.</p>
<p>Throughout most of its history, bitcoin has tended to form both bull market tops and bear market bottoms roughly four&nbsp;years apart.&nbsp;If this pattern were to continue, it could mean the current bear market will bottom some time around November 2026, the asset manager said.</p>
<p>As per Fidelity, if Bitcoin's demand remains steady or grows against low supply, its price can surge. But these four-year cycles should be&nbsp;studied for macro analysis, not exact trade timing, the firm cautioned.</p>
<h2 id="regulatory-clarity">Regulatory clarity</h2>
<p>Fidelity thinks bull markets necessitate regulatory clarity. For instance, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, giving a major boost to the cryptocurrency.</p>
<p>The asset manager is now fixated on the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/107-year-old-investment-firm-sends-blunt-message-on-crypto-act" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Digital Asset Market Clarity Act</a>, which, if enacted into law, can unlock activity that is held back by legal uncertainty.</p>
<h3 id="popular-on-thestreet-roundtable">Popular on TheStreet Roundtable:</h3>
<ul>
 <li><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/investing/bitcoins-latest-halving-cycle-is-raising-a-big-question" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><strong>Bitcoin's latest halving cycle is raising a big question</strong></a></li>
 <li><strong><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/billionaire-investor-reveals-key-reasons-behind-bitcoins-decline" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Billionaire investor reveals key reasons behind Bitcoin's decline</a></strong></li>
 <li><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><strong>Analyst compares Saylor to crypto's 'biggest villain'</strong></a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="monetary-policy">Monetary policy</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/top-wealth-manager-sends-surprising-message-on-fed-rate-cuts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Federal Reserve</a>'s policies hold enormous influence on the markets, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Fidelity argued that there is a strong relationship between interest rate cuts and crypto price surges.</p>
<p>When interest rates decline, borrowing is cheaper and investors get more comfortable, which benefits crypto. When rates rise, liquidity gets tightened and crypto prices drop.</p>
<p>As per Fidelity, crypto prices will rise well in advance if they sense a rate cut because markets tend to anticipate such moves.</p>
<h2 id="breakout-use-case">Breakout use case</h2>
<p>Fidelity highlighted that <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/trump-whales-to-gain-vip-access-at-fifa-world-cup-final" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">meme coins</a> and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) drove the 2019-21 bull run in the crypto market. Currently,&nbsp;tokenization, AI-related crypto&nbsp;applications, and stablecoins are the most popular use cases.</p>
<p>But the asset manager expects an unexpected use case to emerge that will give a boost to the digital assets market. It said that a widespread adoption could trigger a new wave of investor excitement and drive new money into crypto.</p>
<h2 id="institutional-adoption">Institutional adoption</h2>
<p>Institutional adoption of crypto through steps such as <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/strategy-prepares-to-sell-up-to-1-25-billion-of-bitcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">digital asset treasuries</a> (DATs), the promise of a <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/treasury-secretary-bessent-reveals-new-information-on-bitcoin-reserve" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve</a>, etc. has boosted prices. But crypto's&nbsp;institutional adoption throughout 2026 has not led to a new bull market.</p>
<p>But a surprising move such as&nbsp;a Magnificent Seven company adding crypto to its balance sheet could spark a new narrative, as per Fidelity.</p>
<p>Fidelity said that though these factors could be a few possible catalysts that could end the crypto winter, there is no certainty. The asset manager advised investors to only&nbsp;invest an amount they are willing to lose.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/treasury-secretary-bessent-reveals-new-information-on-bitcoin-reserve" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Related: Treasury Secretary Bessent reveals new information on Bitcoin reserve</a></strong></p>

Fidelity just identified five things that could turn crypto around

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