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<h2 id="fake-streams-real-money">Fake Streams, Real Money</h2>
<p><a href="https://x.com/Spotify" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@Spotify</a> has issued a formal directive to prediction market platforms Kalshi and <a href="https://x.com/Polymarket" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@Polymarket</a>, ordering both to remove its corporate branding and publicly confirm that no official partnership exists between them. The move follows a Bloomberg report revealing that traders systematically manipulated Spotify's streaming charts to influence the settlement of music-related prediction markets.</p>
<p>At the centre of the incident is Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings." <cite>Spotify spotted and removed over 500,000 artificial streams that had unexpectedly turned the track into one of the most popular songs on its charts.</cite><cite>The artificial numbers had already been used to settle a Kalshi market tied to the most frequently streamed Spotify song in the US in June, which had attracted $3 million in trading.</cite></p>
<p><cite>Traders who positioned early, when Todd's probability of topping the chart stood under 3%, potentially realized 30-fold gains.</cite><cite>The song was so unlikely to top the chart that it was not even listed as a betting option on Kalshi's competitor, Polymarket.</cite> One Kalshi trader, Caleb Davies, flagged the anomaly publicly. <cite>He noted that the Sunday-to-Monday streaming change represented "a 11.24 sigma event, or a roughly 1 in 77 octillion chance of happening randomly."</cite></p>
<h2 id="spotify-pushes-back-platforms-face-questions">Spotify Pushes Back, Platforms Face Questions</h2>
<p><cite>At Spotify's request, Kalshi has removed Spotify's logo from its betting markets and deleted language suggesting Spotify had verified the chart results.</cite><cite>Kalshi confirmed it was in contact with Spotify and "actively investigating this matter."</cite><cite>Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.</cite></p>
<p><cite>Kalshi had already paid out Malcolm Todd bettors based on the flawed data.</cite> Spotify, for its part, was clear about its own position. <cite>"All streaming services face ever-changing stream manipulation," the company said in a statement, adding that it has "best in class detection and mitigation practices" and does not pay out royalties on manipulated streams.</cite><cite>The platform also announced it would add additional checks before publishing chart results.</cite></p>
<p><cite>As of the time of reporting, there is no suggestion that Todd or his team was affiliated with the streaming manipulation.</cite> The episode highlights a broader structural tension: <cite>the notion that the average music listener can now profit on results they have a chance to manipulate only further incentivises the activity.</cite><cite>This is not the first integrity concern for Kalshi either, as earlier this year a MrBeast editor was accused of insider trading over the YouTuber's videos on the platform.</cite></p>
<p><b>Sources:</b><br><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-02/spotify-challenges-prediction-markets-after-song-chart-rigging" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bloomberg: Spotify Challenges Prediction Markets After Song Chart Rigging</a><br><a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/music/music-industry-news/spotify-pulls-streams-over-kalshi-betting-fraud-1236636212/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">The Hollywood Reporter: Spotify Pulls Streams On a Hit Song Over Alleged Fraud Tied to Kalshi Betting</a><br><a href="https://stereogum.com/2504130/spotify-confirms-streaming-fraud-after-kalshi-trader-flags-suspicious-malcolm-todd-numbers/news" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Stereogum: Spotify Confirms Streaming Fraud After Kalshi Trader Flags Suspicious Malcolm Todd Numbers</a></p>

Spotify Orders Kalshi And Polymarket To Remove Its Branding Following Chart Manipulation

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