Patrick

World

FIFA

Polymarket

Record

<a href="https://yellow.com/news/kalshi-polymarket-stack-war" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Kalshi and Polymarket</a> handled $44.8 billion in combined trading volume in June, a 75% jump from May, as World Cup wagers flooded <a href="https://yellow.com/learn/what-are-prediction-markets-crypto-how-they-work" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">prediction markets</a>.
<h2 id="key-points">Key Points:</h2>
<blockquote>
 <ul>
 <li>Combined June volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US reached $44.8 billion, up 75% from May's $25.66 billion.</li>
 <li>Kalshi grew fastest, climbing 87.4% to $31.5 billion, while its World Cup winner market drew more than $832 million in bets.</li>
 <li>More than a dozen American state authorities are pursuing legal action against both platforms over sports contracts.</li>
 </ul>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="world-cup-betting-lifts-prediction-markets">World Cup Betting Lifts Prediction Markets</h2>
The three venues together <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/406983/kalshi-polymarket-volume-45-billion" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">climbed</a> to the new total from $25.66 billion in May, continuing a rise that began late last year. Kalshi posted the largest gain, growing 87.4% to $31.5 billion from $16.81 billion. Polymarket's main platform took in $10.26 billion, up 45%, while its regulated American arm, Polymarket US, rose to $3.04 billion from $1.77 billion.
The June surge reversed a slide for Polymarket's main venue, which had shed volume every month from March through May. Its American arm moved in the opposite direction over the same stretch, climbing steadily as regulated products gained ground with domestic traders.
The FIFA World Cup, which kicked off Jun. 11 and runs through Jul. 19, has driven much of the increase. Kalshi's tournament winner market alone has attracted more than $832 million in bets, with traders assigning France a roughly 35% chance of winning. Individual match contracts on Polymarket draw between $500,000 and $2 million each, with prices shifting after every knockout result.
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<h2 id="analysts-see-super-bowl-effect-regulators-push-back">Analysts See Super Bowl Effect, Regulators Push Back</h2>
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/world-cup-exposes-growing-rift-143519094.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">wrote</a> in mid-June that the tournament was "like the Super Bowl every day" for the platforms, driving record daily volumes on Kalshi. Bernstein analysts estimated the event could generate roughly $3 billion in additional wagers and as much as $10 billion in volume across betting and prediction venues.
The scale now rivals traditional gambling, since combined monthly volume on the two platforms has <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/05/27/trading-volume-on-prediction-markets-has-soared-in-recent-months/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">overtaken</a> the roughly $14 billion wagered each month through legal American sportsbooks in 2025. Sports contracts account for about 80% of Kalshi's volume since mid-2024, against 39% on Polymarket. The two apps also captured nearly three-quarters of new betting-app downloads during the tournament window.
The growth carries legal risk, as more than a dozen American state authorities <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathangoldman/2026/07/01/prediction-markets-hit-24b-a-month-now-states-are-fighting-back/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">escalate</a> lawsuits, bans, and new taxes accusing the platforms of offering unlicensed sports betting or gambling to residents. Abroad, Spain, Indonesia, and India have moved to restrict access to both sites during the tournament.
June capped a months-long run for Kalshi, which <a href="https://defirate.com/news/kalshi-tops-7-5b-smashing-another-record/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">recorded</a> its largest week ever in the middle of the month, clearing $7.49 billion across six trading days.
The platform crossed $100 billion in lifetime volume during the same stretch and logged its first back-to-back billion-dollar days. Kalshi also raised $1 billion this spring at a $22 billion valuation, roughly doubling its worth in five months.
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Kalshi And Polymarket Ride World Cup Boom To $44.8B June Volume

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