2026

Galaxy

Bitcoin ETF

Polymarket

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 Galaxy Research has warned that Bitcoin may not have reached its current cycle bottom, with market and on-chain data pointing to a possible base-case floor between $40,000 and $46,000 by late 2026.
 The firm’s latest Bitcoin cycle analysis found that only four of 13 historical bottom indicators have been triggered so far, suggesting that the market has entered a zone linked to bottom formation but has not yet shown full confirmation. Bitcoin’s drawdown from its October 2025 peak stands near 51%, compared with previous cycle declines of 77% to 85%.
 According to Polymarket, traders are assigning more downside risk than a full upside recovery. Bitcoin’s <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">chance</a> of falling to $40,000 in 2026 stood at 32%, slightly above its 30% probability of reaching $90,000. The odds of a drop to $45,000 were higher at 40%, aligning with Galaxy’s base-case floor range of $40,000 to $46,000.
 <h2 id="galaxy-maps-bitcoin-s-base-case-floor">Galaxy Maps Bitcoin’s Base-Case Floor</h2>
 Galaxy Research said Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains visible in the data, even as the size of each cycle has narrowed. The firm noted that past cycles moved from a low through a halving into a peak and then into a new bear-market low.
 The current cycle peaked in October 2025, but Galaxy described that top as the calmest in Bitcoin’s history. Its market value to realized value ratio, or MVRV, reached 2.29 at the peak, compared with 2.93 in 2021, 4.72 in 2017, and 5.91 in 2013.
 Source: <a href="https://x.com/WuBlockchain/status/2065436260492099885?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">X</a>
 A lower MVRV means Bitcoin’s price did not move as far above the market’s average cost basis as it did in earlier bull markets. Galaxy said that structure raises the potential floor because the realized price, or market cost basis, was closer to the all-time high than in past cycles.
 The firm placed its base-case bottom range between $40,000 and $46,000, based on an MVRV range of 0.75 to 0.86. A deeper capitulation scenario, closer to past bear-market extremes, could push Bitcoin into the $30,000 to $37,000 range.
 <h2 id="btc-bottom-signals-remain-incomplete">BTC Bottom Signals Remain Incomplete</h2>
 Galaxy’s bottoming checklist shows that only four of 13 indicators have flashed during the current drawdown. The confirmed indicators include fear, a trend gauge nearing its bottom zone, an initial move below the 200-week moving average, and a Hash Ribbons recovery cross linked to miner behavior.
 The strongest signals seen at prior cycle lows have not yet appeared. Bitcoin has not fallen below its realized price, holders have not moved into broad aggregate losses, and sustained loss-taking has not reached levels associated with past final washouts.
 At about eight months, or roughly 242 days, after the October 2025 peak, the current drawdown is also younger than past bear-market declines. Previous bottoms generally formed about 12 to 13 months after cycle peaks, placing the historical timing window closer to late 2026.
 The firm noted that Bitcoin’s current price remains about 14% above its cost basis, with an MVRV near 1.14. In prior cycle bottoms, the price traded well below cost basis, with lows reaching 44%, 31%, and 25% below the realized price in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
 <h2 id="on-chain-data-shows-capitulation-risk">On-Chain Data Shows Capitulation Risk</h2>
 Short-term holder MVRV has moved toward the 0.75 to 0.80 zone, meaning coins acquired in recent months are now held at losses. That band has historically appeared near local bottoms, but Galaxy’s broader framework still requires confirmation from other metrics.
 The adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) is also near the 0.96 support area on its seven-day moving average. A reading below 1.0 shows that coins are being spent at losses, a condition often linked to seller exhaustion.
 Source: <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6a2abd639139404af2b01256-The-On-Chain-Reset-Bitcoin-Needs-Before-a-Durable-Bottom?utm_source=twitter&amp;amp;utm_medium=sns&amp;amp;utm_campaign=quicktake&amp;amp;utm_content=morenodv" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cryptoquant</a>
 A stronger bottom signal would require aSOPR to reclaim and hold above 1.0 for several sessions, while short-term holder MVRV would need to move back through 1.0 toward realized price. Without both signals turning higher, the setup remains an oversold market rather than a confirmed trend change.
 Galaxy also warned that the cost basis can move lower during a sell-off. If panic selling causes coins to change hands at losses, the realized price may fall and drag the potential bottom range lower. A 10%, 20%, or 30% decline in cost basis could move a typical-style floor from about $40,000 toward $36,000, $32,000, or $28,000.
 The firm said spot Bitcoin ETF flows and corporate treasury demand could support a higher floor, but those buyers may not act as a cushion during stress. Moreover, ETF outflows and treasury buyers who prefer strength over weakness could add pressure to the BTC price if redemptions increase.
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Galaxy Research Warns Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $40,000 By 2026 End, Odds at 32%

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