HODL

Satoshi Nakamoto

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 <h2 id="strong-key-takeaways-strong"><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></h2>
 <ul>
  <li><strong>Back reframes BTC as the unit of account – “One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin.”</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Missing Bitcoin’s 10 best trading days annually turns a median 90% gain into a 25% loss.</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Back credits the original 2013 HODL post as statistically correct, not just cultural.</strong></li>
  <li><strong>Back was the very first person contacted by Satoshi Nakamoto via email before the Bitcoin whitepaper.</strong></li>
 </ul>
</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/2064666764512768065" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Speaking at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris</a>,</strong> Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of <strong><a href="https://blockstream.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Blockstream</a></strong> and inventor of <strong><a href="https://atlas21.com/hashcash-proof-of-work-applied-to-emails/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Hashcash</a></strong>, laid out his framework for surviving Bitcoin’s volatility without panic-selling.</p>
<p>Back’s credibility on this topic is not incidental. In 1997, he invented Hashcash, a proof-of-work system originally designed to combat email spam. He was the very first person contacted by Satoshi Nakamoto via email in 2008, when Satoshi sought feedback on the proof-of-work mechanism and asked how Hashcash should be cited in what would become the Bitcoin whitepaper. The proof-of-work mechanism that secures every Bitcoin block today is a direct descendant of Back’s original design. When Back talks about Bitcoin conviction, he is speaking from a position most people in the industry cannot claim.</p>
<p>Back has maintained that long-term conviction publicly and consistently. In a previous interview, <strong><a href="https://coindoo.com/adam-back-on-bitcoins-1m-target-and-the-reserve-no-rush-guys/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Back outlined his $1 million Bitcoin price target and his view on the strategic reserve,</a></strong>&nbsp;positions that provide direct context for the holding philosophy he elaborated on here.</p>
<h2 id="the-mental-shift-measure-in-btc-not-dollars">The Mental Shift: Measure in BTC, Not Dollars</h2>
<p>Back’s core argument is about the unit of account. In his early years, he measured his holdings in dollars, which made every price drop feel like a realized loss, even when he had not sold anything. The shift came when he stopped converting to fiat mentally and started treating Bitcoin itself as the baseline.</p>
<p>“One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin,” Back said. Under that framework, an 85% drawdown in dollar terms becomes noise. The number of coins held has not changed. The only thing that changed is the exchange rate between Bitcoin and a currency he no longer uses as his reference point.</p>
<p>This is not a psychological trick. It is a structural reframe that removes the emotional trigger for panic selling, the feeling of watching a number get smaller.</p>
<div class="read-more pb-3 pt-3 pt-md-2 px-3 my-4 border bg-light">
 <h5 class="text-uppercase border-bottom mb-3 pb-1 d-none d-md-block">READ MORE:</h5><a href="https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-looks-cheap-on-chain-but-has-it-finished-correcting/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">
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  <div class="contentLeft col-8">
   <h4 class="title mb-0">Bitcoin Looks Cheap On-Chain, But Has It Finished Correcting?</h4>
  </div></a>
</div>
<h2 id="the-statistics-behind-hodl">The Statistics Behind HODL</h2>
<p>Back’s case against market timing is not just philosophical, it is backed by data. He pointed out that removing just the 12 best trading days from any given year causes Bitcoin to lose money annually. The actual research supports this precisely: a data analysis by market analyst David Eng covering 2020 through 2025 found that <strong><a href="https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/bitcoin-price-returns-negative-best-trading-days-analyst-finds/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">missing just the 10 best trading days each year</a></strong> turned a median annual return of positive 90% into a median loss of 25%, a swing of 115 percentage points.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://cryptoslate.com/insights/missing-bitcoins-top-10-days-a-year-could-cost-you-all-annual-gains-fundstrat/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Fundstrat research</a></strong> found the same pattern dating back to 2013. During 2021’s bull market, the top 10 trading days produced a 179% return, while the remaining 355 days returned negative 43%. The gains are not distributed evenly across the year. They concentrate in a handful of sessions that are, by definition, impossible to predict in advance.</p>
<p>At first glance, the “missing 10 days” theory seems hard to believe. Few investors consciously decide to miss the market’s strongest days. The problem is that nobody knows in advance which days those will be.</p>
<p>Consider an investor who watches Bitcoin fall from $100,000 to $70,000. Worried the decline will continue, he sells with the intention of buying back at a lower price. Then a positive catalyst appears – a regulatory announcement, an institutional buyer, or a sharp shift in market sentiment.</p>
<p>Within a few days, Bitcoin can appreciate 10%, 15%, or even more. The investor who sold sits on the sidelines waiting for a better entry point. That is precisely how the most profitable days get missed.</p>
<p>This matters especially because the strongest days often follow immediately after the weakest. The market can lose 10% in a day, fall further the next, then sharply recover a large portion of those losses within just a few sessions. When fear is at its peak, many participants have already sold and fail to get back in time.</p>
<p>That is why the data shows such a dramatic difference in outcomes. An investor who simply holds Bitcoin through the entire period remains exposed to every upward move. An investor who repeatedly enters and exits the market risks missing a small number of critical days that account for a significant portion of total annual returns.</p>
<p>According to Beck, this is one of the primary reasons the HODL strategy works so well over the long term. To outperform the market through active trading, selling at the right time is not enough. You also have to time the re-entry correctly. In practice, that means making two consecutive correct decisions in an environment where the largest moves often arrive without warning.</p>
<p>“Being out of the market is helpfully dangerous,” Back said. The data confirms it.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 <p>JUST IN: CYPHERPUNK LEGEND ADAM BACK JUST SAID HE HAS SEEN <a href="https://x.com/hashtag/BITCOIN?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">#BITCOIN</a> DROP "85% MULTIPLE TIMES"</p>
 <p>"IT DOESN'T MAKE A DIFFERENCE AT ALL"</p>
 <p>"ONE BITCOIN IS ONE BITCOIN"</p>
 <p>"YOU'RE BETTER OFF TO JUST <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">HODL</a> THROUGH THE BEAR MARKET" 🔥✊ <a href="https://t.co/NRVaFWTmIV" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/NRVaFWTmIV</a></p>
 <p>— The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_) <a href="https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/2064666764512768065?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">June 10, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="why-back-endorses-the-original-hodl-post">Why Back Endorses the Original HODL Post</h2>
<p>Back specifically cited the original HODL post as one of his favorites, not for its cultural status but for what it actually said. On December 18, 2013, a <strong><a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcointalk user named GameKyuubi posted “I AM HODLING”</a></strong> during a Bitcoin price crash, admitting he was a bad trader who could not time the market and would simply hold instead. The post received over 2,600 replies and spawned the term that has defined long-term Bitcoin holding ever since.</p>
<p>Back’s endorsement of it is pointed. GameKyuubi’s conclusion, that traders can only take your money if you sell, is not sentiment. It is a logical consequence of the same data he referenced. If the majority of Bitcoin’s annual gains concentrate in unpredictable sessions, then the only reliable way to capture them is continuous exposure. Selling during a downturn means you need to get back in at exactly the right moment twice, when you sell and when you buy back. The statistics make that nearly impossible to execute consistently.</p>
<p>Back’s conclusion mirrors GameKyuubi’s:</p>
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 <blockquote>
  <p><em>“Counter-intuitively, you’re better off to just sit there through the down cycle.”</em></p>
 </blockquote>
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<p><em><span><strong>The information provided in this article is for educational and research purposes only. This content does not constitute financial or investment advice. Digital assets involve extreme volatility and risk of loss.</strong></span></em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://coindoo.com/satoshis-first-contact-explains-why-to-stop-measuring-btc-in-usd/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Satoshi’s First Contact Explains Why to Stop Measuring BTC in USD</a> appeared first on <a href="https://coindoo.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coindoo</a>.</p>

Satoshi’s First Contact Explains Why to Stop Measuring BTC in USD

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