fire

2026

Galaxy

Worldcoin

Arthur

<p>Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, warning that the Senate is running out of time to pass the crypto market structure bill.</p>
<div id="cn-block-summary-block_15bdb4075a54e52c9129b41465d25a7c" class="cn-block-summary">
 <div class="cn-block-summary__nav tabs"><span>Summary</span>
 </div>
 <div class="cn-block-summary__content">
  <ul>
   <li>Galaxy cut CLARITY Act odds to 60% as Senate floor time becomes harder to secure.</li>
   <li>Alex Thorn said July action is needed before the August recess closes the window.</li>
   <li>JPMorgan and Bitwise also flagged lower odds as ethics and finance talks remain unresolved.</li>
  </ul>
 </div>
</div>
<p>Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, said the firm now sees a 60% chance of passage this year. Galaxy had raised its estimate to 75% in May after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x">
 <div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
  <blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
   <p>i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today<br><br>i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now next… <a href="https://t.co/2EcxMb3Hwh" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/2EcxMb3Hwh</a></p>— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) <a href="https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/2062998896041758957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">June 5, 2026</a>
  </blockquote>
 </div>
</figure>
<p>You might also like: <a href="https://crypto.news/arthur-hayes-under-fire-for-exiting-worldcoin-position/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> Arthur Hayes under fire for exiting Worldcoin position&nbsp; </a></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-galaxy-lowers-clarity-act-odds-to-60-strong"><strong>Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 60%</strong></h2>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
 <p>“On May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75%,” Thorn said. “We are now lowering that estimate to 60%,” he added.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The change shows how quickly the bill’s path has narrowed. Thorn said Senate leaders must move the bill before lawmakers leave for their August recess in late July.</p>
<p>He said the window “effectively closes” after that break because midterm election activity will make major legislation harder to pass.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-senate-calendar-becomes-the-main-risk-strong"><strong>Senate calendar becomes the main risk</strong></h2>
<p>The CLARITY Act still needs Senate floor debate, an amendment process, and alignment between different Senate committee texts.</p>
<p>Thorn said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to schedule floor time in July for the process to fit before recess.</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
 <p>“Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess,” Thorn said.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The bill also needs at least 60 Senate votes to avoid a long debate process. That means lawmakers must settle remaining disputes while keeping enough bipartisan support.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="strong-ethics-and-illicit-finance-talks-remain-open-strong"><strong>Ethics and illicit finance talks remain open</strong></h2>
<p>Galaxy said it would raise its odds again if Senate leaders commit to a July vote and lawmakers settle the remaining policy issues.</p>
<p>Thorn said ethics and illicit finance provisions remain key sticking points. These issues matter because they could affect support from senators who remain cautious about crypto rules.</p>
<p>Senator Cynthia Lummis has continued pressing for a floor vote. She wrote that the bill had cleared committee and that “the floor is next.”</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x">
 <div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
  <blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
   <p>The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line.</p>— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) <a href="https://x.com/SenLummis/status/2063768467145105813?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">June 7, 2026</a>
  </blockquote>
 </div>
</figure>
<p>Lummis also <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmwLEjy5DZM" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">told</a> CNBC that lawmakers are working through ethics and illicit finance concerns before a possible vote.</p>
<p>As previously <a href="https://crypto.news/galaxys-alex-thorn-lifts-clarity-act-odds-to-75/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">reported</a> by crypto.news, Galaxy had raised its CLARITY Act odds to 75% after the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill in a 15-9 bipartisan vote.</p>
<p>Separate crypto.news reporting <a href="https://crypto.news/jpmorgan-warns-the-clarity-act-is-running-out-of-time/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">noted</a> that JPMorgan later warned the bill was running out of time. The bank placed the chance of passage this year at less than 50%.</p>
<p>Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan also <a href="https://crypto.news/ai-stocks-are-draining-cryptos-momentum-bitwise-warns/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">sounded</a> more cautious. He said some Washington insiders put the odds between 5% and 30%.</p>
<p>The CLARITY Act remains one of the crypto industry’s main policy goals. Its path now depends on whether Senate leaders can find floor time, settle the open provisions, and send a revised bill back to the House before the election calendar takes over.</p>
<p>Read more: <a href="https://crypto.news/strategy-can-survive-bitcoin-at-30k-btctop-ceo-says/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> Strategy can survive Bitcoin at $30k, BTCTOP CEO says </a></p>

Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act odds as Senate clock runs out

Table of Contents

crypto.news

Other articles published on Jun 8, 2026

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!