NEAR Protocol

Donald Trump

President Donald Trump

Tom Lee

<p>President Donald Trump said Saturday that "an agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization" between the United States, Iran, and regional powers, adding that the deal, which includes the reopening of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Strait of Hormuz</a>, would be announced shortly.</p>
<p><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> climbed roughly 3% in response, trading at approximately <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$76,900</a> at the time of writing. The broader crypto market cap added roughly <a href="https://www.mexc.com/news/1109777" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$75 billion</a>. <a href="https://www.banklesstimes.com/articles/2026/05/24/near-ondo-hype-wld-morpho-lead-crypto-gains-as-trump-inks-iran-deal/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">NEAR Protocol surged 15%</a>. <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/ondo-exec-sees-5b-in-tokenized-stocks-by-year-end-after-crossing-1b-milestone" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ondo Finance</a>, Hyperliquid, and Worldcoin all gained over 10%.</p>
<p>It looked like a breakout. The problem is that almost nobody with real money on the line believes this deal actually closes.</p>
<h2 id="tehran-says-it-is-not-done">Tehran says it is not done</h2>
<p>Within hours of Trump's announcement, Iran's <a href="https://time.com/article/2026/05/23/iran-war-deal-news-trump/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Fars news agency</a>, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, dismissed Trump's claim as "incomplete and inconsistent with reality."</p>
<p>Iran's semi-official <a href="https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-iran-deal-crypto-market-impact/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Tasnim news agency</a> reported that disagreements over two or three clauses persist, with a source warning that if the U.S. continues creating obstacles, there will be "no possibility of finalizing the memorandum of understanding."</p>
<p>The U.S. is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/23/us-iran-war-talks.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">demanding that Iran surrender</a> its 440-kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium and dismantle its three main nuclear sites. Iran says the nuclear issue was never part of the preliminary agreement and wants sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and a permanent end to hostilities before any nuclear talks begin.</p>
<p>A senior Iranian source told Tasnim that the release of a portion of Iran's frozen assets is a condition of the memorandum. Iran is also seeking a 30-day window for procedures related to the Strait of Hormuz and a separate 60-day window for nuclear negotiations. Trump has <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/04/29/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-blockade" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">explicitly rejected</a> a proposed Iranian toll system for Strait traffic.</p>
<p>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened an <a href="https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/05/24/israel-alarmed-as-iran-deal-takes-shape/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">emergency security cabinet meeting</a> Saturday evening to discuss the deal. Israeli officials who saw the draft are reportedly "not happy" with its terms, according to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/24/live-trump-says-new-iran-deal-largely-negotiated-with-talks-very-soon" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Al Jazeera</a>, as it does not address their demand to eliminate Iran's nuclear program.</p>
<h2 id="what-the-derivatives-market-shows">What the derivatives market shows</h2>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/liquidations" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinGlass</a>, $369.41 million in crypto positions were liquidated in the 24 hours following Trump's announcement. Of that, $295.95 million were shorts and $73.47 million were longs, a 4-to-1 ratio. A total of 68,616 traders were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation a $10.17 million BTCUSDT position on Binance.</p>
<p>Bitcoin's open-interest-weighted <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">funding rate</a> across major exchanges sits at 0.0035%. On <a href="https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Hyperliquid</a>, the largest on-chain perpetuals exchange with $2.10 billion in Bitcoin open interest, the funding rate is 0.0000%. Despite a 3.28% rally, funding rates have not moved meaningfully higher.</p>
<p>Total open interest across the crypto derivatives market rose 1.06% to $127.53 billion, according to CoinGlass.</p>
<p>Crypto analyst <a href="https://x.com/DaanCrypto" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Daan Crypto Trades</a> noted this week that Bitcoin saw <a href="https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/32910768/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">well over $1 billion in spot ETF outflows</a> during the week and said he wanted "some confirmation or sign of strength first as we're obviously still in a larger downtrend." The rally, in his view, has not changed the structure.</p>
<h3 id="trending-on-thestreet-roundtable">Trending on TheStreet Roundtable</h3>
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</ul>
<h2 id="polymarket-prices-nuclear-deal-at-9-odds-this-month">Polymarket prices nuclear deal at 9% odds this month</h2>
<p><a href="https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket</a> traders have placed more than <a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-tops-77k-as-trump-weighs-iran-move-polymarket-peace-bet-hits-154m/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$154 million in bets</a> on whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal in 2026. The contract launched on April 8 and has become one of the most actively traded geopolitical markets on the platform.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">nuclear deal by May 31 contract</a> prices at 9%. The <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Iran agrees to end enrichment by May 31 contract</a> prices even lower.</p>
<p>The broader peace deal contracts are higher. A deal by May 26, which is Monday, carries 56% odds. By May 31, it is 62%. By December 31, it is 91%.</p>
<p>The spread between ceasefire odds and nuclear deal odds remains wide.</p>
<h2 id="previous-iran-rallies-in-2026">Previous Iran rallies in 2026</h2>
<p>Bitcoin has rallied on Iran peace news multiple times this year. In early April, it <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/06/bitcoin-rallies-on-report-of-iran-ceasefire-talks-algorand-extends-gains/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">rallied on initial ceasefire talks</a>. In mid-April, it <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/16/bitcoin-steady-as-s-and-p-500-hits-record-but-options-market-isn-t-buying-the-peace-trade/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pushed toward $75,000 as the S&amp;P 500 hit a record</a>. In early May, it <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/06/bitcoin-nasdaq-futures-rally-as-oil-crashes-6-on-iran-peace-deal-hopes/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">surged to $82,000</a> as oil crashed 6% on fresh peace deal hopes.</p>
<p>On May 18, Trump posted that <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/18/bitcoin-slides-below-usd77-000-as-trump-s-iran-warning-rattles-risk-assets/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">"the clock is ticking"</a> for Iran, Brent crude pushed above $112, and Bitcoin dropped to a two-week low below $77,000. Roughly <a href="https://phemex.com/blogs/bitcoin-breaks-77k-657m-longs-liquidated" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$657 million in leveraged positions</a> were liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for $584 million of that figure.</p>
<h2 id="liquidation-clusters-above-and-below">Liquidation clusters above and below</h2>
<p><a href="https://x.com/joao_wedson/status/2057203839531655203" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson</a> mapped the leverage sitting around Bitcoin and found roughly <a href="https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-trump-iran-squeeze-analysis/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$9.35 billion in potential short liquidations</a> stacked above current price, while $12.73 billion in long liquidations sit further below.</p>
<p>A break above $80,889, roughly a 4% move from current levels, would trigger a short squeeze cascade toward the $83,000 to $84,000 range. A break below $75,995 exposes roughly $12.7 billion in long liquidations. Wedson noted that the 8-hour candles climbing back up are doing so on weakening volume.</p>
<h2 id="oil-and-the-strait-of-hormuz">Oil and the Strait of Hormuz</h2>
<p>The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. Iran's blockade pushed crude prices toward <a href="https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/05/23/crude-oil-price-holds-above-96-as-iran-peace-deal-remains-elusive-strait-of-hormuz-stays-shut/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$96 per barrel</a> as of late May. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/oil-price-today-iran-war-strait-hormuz-trump.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Oil prices fell sharply</a> on Trump's announcement as investors priced in the prospect of the strait reopening.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-19/massive-options-bet-rattles-oil-market-on-edge-over-iran-war" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bloomberg reported</a> that put options equivalent to 134 million barrels of Brent crude traded in a single $91/$90 put spread transaction on Tuesday, a trade that would profit as much as $129 million if July futures drop roughly 19% by expiration.</p>
<p><a href="https://coinalertnews.com/news/2026/05/18/tom-lee-eth-oil-correlation" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Analyst Tom Lee</a> has pointed out that <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ethereum</a> is now showing its strongest inverse correlation with oil ever recorded. If oil comes down on a confirmed deal, the relief rally in crypto could be significant. If the deal collapses and crude pushes back toward $110, the downside for <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">altcoins</a> is equally sharp.</p>
<h3 id="most-popular-on-thestreet-roundtable">Most Popular on TheStreet Roundtable</h3>
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 <li><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/bank-of-america-discloses-exposure-to-bitcoin-xrp-ether-solana" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><strong>Bank of America discloses exposure to Bitcoin, XRP, Ether, Solana</strong></a></li>
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</ul>
<h2 id="what-comes-next">What comes next</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/24/wall-street-broker-bernstein-calls-bitcoin-bottom-keeps-usd150-000-year-end-target" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bernstein maintains a $150,000 year-end Bitcoin target</a>. <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket gives a nuclear deal 9% odds this month</a> but prices a broader peace deal at 62% by May 31. Iran's Fars news agency says the deal as described by Trump is not accurate. Roughly $9.35 billion in short liquidations remain stacked above current price, while $12.7 billion in long liquidations sit below.</p>
<p>Bitcoin was trading at $77,300 at the time of writing.</p>

Markets surge after Trump's latest 'agreement' with Iran

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