2026

Galaxy

Polymarket

would

<h2 id="senate-committee-clears-key-hurdle">Senate Committee Clears Key Hurdle</h2>
<p>The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act cleared a significant legislative milestone last week when <cite>the Senate Banking Committee approved the crypto Clarity Act in a 15-9 bipartisan vote</cite>. <cite>The Senate Banking Committee largely voted along party lines, with Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joining all Republicans on the panel to support the bill.</cite></p>
<p><cite>The bill is the top legislative priority of the crypto industry, as it would add predictable oversight and guardrails to the sector.</cite><cite>A central structural element draws a hard jurisdictional line between the SEC and CFTC, assigning oversight based on whether a token functions as a security or as a digital commodity within a decentralized protocol.</cite></p>
<h2 id="galaxy-research-puts-odds-at-75">Galaxy Research Puts Odds at 75%</h2>
<p><cite>Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn said the CLARITY Act has a 75% chance of becoming law in 2026 after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee.</cite><cite>Thorn outlined a timeline pointing to a potential presidential signing during the week of August 3, with Senate floor debate expected to begin in mid-June and House-Senate reconciliation potentially concluding by late July.</cite><cite>He warned that Congress has only nine weeks of Senate floor time before the August 10 recess, after which substantive legislation rarely advances during a midterm election cycle.</cite></p>
<p><cite>Prediction market Polymarket placed the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 68%, up sharply from 46% at the start of May, though still below Thorn's 75% estimate.</cite><cite>Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith offered a more cautious 60% probability of passage, saying "a lot can go wrong" despite growing bipartisan momentum.</cite></p>
<p>Several hurdles remain before the bill can reach President Trump's desk. <cite>Lawmakers still need to resolve a conflict-of-interest provision before a final version is likely to be available for a full Senate vote, where 60 yes votes will be needed, necessarily including a significant number of Democrats.</cite><cite>The measure is also opposed by banks, unions, and law enforcement agencies that say various provisions would hurt consumers and endanger financial systems.</cite></p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/clarity-act-congress-crypto-senate.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CNBC: Crypto industry scores win as Clarity Act clears Senate hurdle</a> | <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/05/14/clarity-act-clears-u-s-senate-committee-on-its-way-to-a-final-test-in-congress" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinDesk: Clarity Act clears U.S. Senate committee</a> | <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/galaxy-research-head-clarity-act-trump-august/cZXneH8Rek8" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Stocktwits: Galaxy Research head says CLARITY Act could hit Trump's desk by August</a></p>

CLARITY Act Moves Closer To Law

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