Patrick

Polymarket

Surge

Polymarket traders are pricing a 75% probability that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026, up roughly 10 percentage points from recent lows, as momentum builds in Washington ahead of a critical legislative window.
<h2 id="a-volatile-road-to-75">A Volatile Road to 75%</h2>
The bill's odds on the prediction platform have swung sharply throughout the year. <cite>The likelihood of the CLARITY Act being enacted in 2026 bottomed at 40% in January before rallying to a peak of 82% by February 20.</cite> Odds then slid again as Senate delays mounted, <cite>falling 21 points in five days, from 64% on April 18 to 43%,</cite> before recovering to their current level. <cite>The market has generated $651,800 in total trading volume since launching on January 11, 2026,</cite> reflecting the depth of interest among prediction market participants.
<cite>The jump back toward the mid-70s came after senators reached a deal on stablecoin yield, with Coinbase executives expressing support for the agreement.</cite><cite>The bill would ban interest or yield that is economically or functionally equivalent to interest-bearing bank deposits, while allowing rewards or incentives tied to bona fide activities or transactions.</cite>
<h2 id="washington-closes-in-on-a-deadline">Washington Closes In on a Deadline</h2>
<cite>White House digital assets adviser Patrick Witt said the administration is targeting July 4 for House passage of the CLARITY Act, with the Senate Banking Committee markup planned for May and four working Senate weeks in June for floor passage.</cite><cite>Senator Gillibrand predicted a final vote could happen in the first week of August, which would mark the last chance before Congress's summer break.</cite>
<cite>For the first time in its history, Congress is moving to materially regulate cryptocurrency through comprehensive market structure legislation, with the bill designed to provide long-sought jurisdictional clarity between the SEC and the CFTC while creating a framework intended to protect consumers and investors.</cite>
The stakes are high. <cite>Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that failure to act this year would mean waiting until at least 2030 for another shot at comprehensive crypto regulation, as a new Congress would need to restart the entire legislative process from scratch.</cite><cite>The practical implication is that any Senate floor vote needs to happen before August 2026, when campaigning begins in earnest and the Senate's calendar effectively closes for controversial votes.</cite>
Prediction market odds reflect trader sentiment and do not constitute investment advice.
Sources: <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?</a> <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/05/06/white-house-targets-july-4-for-clarity-act-passage-says-crypto-adviser-patrick-witt" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinDesk: White House targets July 4 for Clarity Act passage</a> <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/news-analysis/2026/04/21/crypto-s-great-hope-in-senate-s-clarity-act-still-has-a-path-to-survive-tight-calendar" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CoinDesk: Crypto's great hope in Senate's Clarity Act still has a path</a>

Clarity Act Odds Surge On Polymarket

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