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   <li>ECB kept rates unchanged at April 30 meeting but signaled potential June rate hike</li>
   <li>Lagarde emphasized intensifying risks to both inflation and economic growth</li>
   <li>Markets pricing approximately 50 basis points of tightening by year-end</li>
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<p>The&nbsp;<a href="https://crypto.news/market-cap/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">European Central Bank</a>&nbsp;maintained interest rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting, but ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference remarks indicated a June rate hike has moved closer to reality, according to ING analyst Carsten Brzeski. Lagarde stressed that risks on both growth and inflation are intensifying, though the decision to keep rates steady was unanimous.<a href="https://www.indexbox.io/blog/ecb-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-at-april-30-meeting-ing-reports/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"></a></p>
<p>Brzeski noted the ECB has introduced a clear inclination towards rate hikes within its wait-and-see stance. Markets currently price approximately 50 basis points of tightening by year-end, with between 20 and 40 basis points anticipated by June.<a href="https://www.indexbox.io/blog/ecb-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-at-april-30-meeting-ing-reports/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"></a></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="inflation-risks-tilt-upward">Inflation Risks Tilt Upward</h2>
<p>The&nbsp;<a href="https://crypto.news/cftc-clears-path-for-crypto-in-derivatives-what-you-need-to-know/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ECB</a>&nbsp;baseline projections see headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, revised higher from December primarily due to energy price pressures from the Iran war. Core inflation is projected at 2.3% in 2026, moderating to 2.2% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.</p>
<p>You might also like: <a href="https://crypto.news/megaeth-launches-mega-token-as-major-exchanges-open-trading/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> MegaETH launches MEGA token as major exchanges open trading </a></p>
<p>Lagarde warned that “the war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth”. The ECB president told the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee that the conflict “will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices”.<a href="https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/euro-zone-inflation-risk-going-higher-forecast-lagarde/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"></a></p>
<p>ECB staff projections included adverse scenarios showing headline&nbsp;<a href="https://crypto.news/prediction-markets-sprint-from-crypto-niche-to-mainstream-finance/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">inflation</a>&nbsp;potentially reaching 3.5% or even 4.4% in 2026 if energy supply disruptions persist. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.00%, with main refinancing operations at 2.15% and marginal lending facility at 2.40%.</p>
<p>Over half of economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to hold rates April 30 but hike in June as war-driven inflation accelerates. According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-17/ecb-to-hike-rates-in-june-as-2026-inflation-jumps-survey-shows" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bloomberg</a>, the anticipated quarter-point increase would likely be the only move as the conflict won’t cause a long-lasting price shock.</p>
<p>Read more: <a href="https://crypto.news/gemini-secures-cftc-clearing-license-gains-full-derivatives-infrastructure/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"> Gemini Secures CFTC clearing license, gains full derivatives infrastructure </a></p>

ECB signals growing rate hike inclination as Lagarde stresses rising risks

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