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A new analysis of Polymarket shows fewer than 1% of wallets captured roughly half of all profits across its key political markets between December 2025 and February 2026.
<h2 id="solidus-labs-report-findings">Solidus Labs Report Findings</h2>
Blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs<a href="https://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=smartlink&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.soliduslabs.com%2Freports%2Fpolymarket-under-the-polygraph&amp;esheet=54525029&amp;newsitemid=20260429164898&amp;lan=en-US&amp;anchor=here&amp;index=3&amp;md5=ef63f75d042892db34e52945d5680625" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">published</a> the figures this week. About 0.55% of profitable maker wallets took home 50% of gains, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets pulled in nearly the same share.
In dollar terms, each tiny cohort split close to $8 million out of roughly $16 million in total profits.
The report also flags wash trading. Solidus says about 15% of volume in some markets <a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/polymarket-study-finds-3-14-drive-accuracy/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">showed</a> patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions, partly tied to speculation around a coming POLY airdrop.
Also Read:<a href="https://yellow.com/news/worldcoin-wld-token-52m-volume-digital-identity-narrative" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Worldcoin Sees $52M In Volume As Digital Identity Narrative Regains Attention</a>
<h2 id="structural-divide-among-traders">Structural Divide Among Traders</h2>
The findings sharpen a picture from earlier academic work. A London Business School and Yale paper [found]<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/26/only-3-of-traders-drive-prediction-markets-accuracy-not-the-crowd-study-finds" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">analyzed</a> that roughly 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price discovery.
Solidus argues the imbalance points to a structural divide. A small group operates with deep capital, faster infrastructure, and execution strategies most users cannot match.
The firm is not a neutral observer. It <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260205995596/en/Kalshi-Partners-with-Solidus-Labs-to-Power-Next-Generation-Trade-Surveillance" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">sells</a> HALO, the surveillance product behind the report, and recently signed a deal to deploy it across more than 4,000 markets on Kalshi, Polymarket's largest U.S.-regulated rival.
Polymarket has been moving toward a token launch. CMO Matthew Modabber confirmed <a href="https://yellow.com/research/polymarket-poly-token-what-the-dollar9-billion-valuation-means-for-a-potential-crypto-airdrop" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">plans for the POLY rollout</a> and an accompanying airdrop in late 2025, with the team prioritizing the platform's U.S. relaunch first. On Apr. 28, Polymarket also rolled out rebuilt smart contracts and a new pUSD collateral token.
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Polymarket's Top 1% Wallets Pocket Half Of $16M Politics Gains, Research Shows

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