2024

DeFi

Polymarket

Prediction markets are becoming one of the most active onchain applications, with retail users driving most activity even as participation across much of the broader digital asset market remains subdued.
According to a new report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, monthly trading volume reached $25.7 billion in March, with more than 80% of users classified as retail, defined as those trading less than $10,000.
The figures are broadly consistent with <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/prediction-market-transactions-growth-march-2026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">data from Dune Analytics</a>, which recorded $23.7 billion in March trading volume, up from $1.9 billion a year earlier.
The report points to a broader behavioral shift in how prediction markets are used. Rather than focusing on one-off, high-profile events, users are returning more frequently and engaging across multiple categories. Average active days per user almost quadrupled from 2.5 to 9.9 over the first quarter, indicating deeper and more consistent participation.
Sports emerged as the largest segment, generating $10.1 billion in trading volume during the quarter, driven by a steady availability of global sporting events. Political markets also saw significant activity, totaling $5 billion over the same period.
The findings suggest prediction markets are evolving beyond episodic betting into a more continuous system for tracking real-world developments, with crypto wallets increasingly serving as key access points for users.
<img alt="Monthly prediction market volume hits $25.7B as user activity shifts beyond one-off events" height="724" src="https://payload.lum-tri.org/api/media/file/pasted-image-115.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent" width="1250">
Trading volumes across various prediction markets. Source: Bitget Wallet
Polymarket, one of the largest platforms in the sector, operates on Polygon, allowing users to place onchain bets on real-world outcomes without intermediaries. By contrast, platforms such as Kalshi operate centralized marketplaces.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-strait-hormuz-return-normal-may-73" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket odds of Hormuz Strait traffic normalizing by end of May spike to 73%</a>
<h2 id="prediction-market-activity-continues-to-grow">Prediction market activity continues to grow</h2>
Industry projections cited in the report suggest prediction market volumes could reach $240 billion annually this year, with longer-term forecasts pointing toward the trillion-dollar mark.
That trajectory no longer seems far-fetched. Prediction markets have seen significant momentum since the 2024 US presidential election, benefiting early movers such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Both platforms are reportedly raising substantial <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-polymarket-20b-valuation-fundraising-wsj" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">capital at valuations exceeding $20 billion</a>.
For Polymarket, evolving regulatory dynamics, particularly growing acceptance from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, have enabled more proactive steps around market integrity and transparency. The platform recently <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-rules-update-manipulation-insider-trading" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">updated its governance framework</a> to address risks related to insider trading and market manipulation.
<img alt="Monthly prediction market volume hits $25.7B as user activity shifts beyond one-off events" height="604" src="https://payload.lum-tri.org/api/media/file/pasted-image-116.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent" width="1529">
Sports, crypto and politics remain high-volume event categories on Polymarket. Source: Bitget Wallet
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph-magazine.com/are-defi-devs-liable-illegal-activities-platforms/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?</a>

Monthly prediction market volume hits $25.7B as user activity shifts beyond one-off events

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