2024

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Polymarket

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Just 0.015% of Polymarket traders can reliably make $5,000 or more a month, according to new data, meaning the idea of quitting a full-time job to trade prediction markets is unrealistic for most.
Data from crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov on Monday <a href="https://sergeenkov.com/polymarket-profitability/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">found</a> that while nearly 1% of Polymarket traders earned more than $5,000 in a single month, only 0.1% managed to repeat that the following month and just 0.015% were able to sustain it for four consecutive months.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2026-04/019d70c7-4624-72c6-bc4e-b4f9d1338e09.png" alt="99.99% of Polymarket traders shouldn't quit their day jobs, data suggests">
 <figcaption>Change in percentage of Polymarket traders that averaged over $1,000, $5,000 and $10,000 in monthly profits since April 2024. Source: <a href="https://sergeenkov.com/polymarket-profitability/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Andrey Sergeenkov</a> 
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The average US monthly salary is around $5,220, <a href="https://www.consumershield.com/articles/average-salary-per-month" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">according</a> to Consumer Shield.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2026-04/019d70c7-4a16-7601-a1b1-5f11d1339403.png" alt="99.99% of Polymarket traders shouldn't quit their day jobs, data suggests">
 <figcaption>Odds of making over $5,000 per month on Polymarket over certain time intervals. Source: <a href="https://sergeenkov.com/polymarket-profitability/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Andrey Sergeenkov</a>
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Prediction markets have become one of the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/iran-war-bets-turn-crypto-prediction-markets-real-time-macro-radar" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">fastest-growing use cases</a> in crypto, enabling users to speculate on outcomes across politics, sports, finance and cultural events.
Most prediction markets use binary “yes” and “no” shares priced between $0 and $1 that reflect perceived probabilities. Traders can profit by buying undervalued shares and selling higher or holding winning outcomes that settle at $1 when the event has concluded.
Sergeenkov’s findings were framed alongside a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/01/17/nx-s1-5672615/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-market-boom-traders-slang-glossary" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">report</a> about Logan Sudeith, a former financial risk analyst who quit his job and turned to prediction markets, where he profited $100,000 in December.
Sergeenkov also highlighted an X post from former Messari analyst “Tulip King,” who <a href="https://x.com/tulipking/status/1988290581790159222" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">claimed</a> in November that “Polymarket is the easiest place in crypto to make six figures right now.”
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Three Polymarket traders made timely bets on US-Iran ceasefire</a>
However, Sergeenkov’s data found that only 840 wallets (roughly 0.033% of Polymarket traders) have profited over $100,000.
Not all of these wallets would be retail traders, either, as professional traders working at <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/interview/bitcoin-underestimating-prolonged-iran-war-macro-investor-weighs-in" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">hedge funds</a> and other firms are also trading in prediction markets.
“Less experienced users tend to trade less successfully,” Sergeenkov noted.
<h2 id="most-successful-traders-make-profits-and-bounce">Most successful traders make profits and bounce</h2>
The more <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/markets/memecoin-messiah-lost-60m-trading-spx6900-giga-hes-still-not-selling" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">successful traders</a> don’t stick around long either, Sergeenkov said, pointing out that only 172 of 6,600 wallet addresses with average monthly profits above $5,000 remained active more than a year.
“That’s 2.6%,” Sergeenkov said. “Most traders show up, trade for a short period, and leave.”
Sergeenkov’s analysis didn’t come without limitations. The researcher noted that he only factored in realized profits and losses, though he claimed that 96% of trading volume comes from already resolved markets.
Data was taken from April 2024 through to April 1, 2026.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph-magazine.com/taiwan-advised-btc-drift-hack-north-korea-asia-express/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Asia Express: Phantom Bitcoin checks, China tracks tax on blockchain</a>

99.99% of Polymarket traders shouldn't quit their day jobs, data suggests

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