OpenEden

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Hedge

Centrifuge

Chuck

Editor’s note: S&amp;P Global today releases Bitcoin volatility and market dynamics findings, highlighting Bitcoin’s shift from a niche asset to a market-connected instrument. The full report, Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk, examines price patterns, volatility, and the interplay with traditional markets, while noting that tokenized assets and new products introduce additional risks beyond the asset itself. As Cristina Polizu, Managing Director of S&amp;P Global Ratings, emphasizes, volatility has trended down in the long term, yet remains linked to broader market conditions and carries custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.
<h2 id="key-points">Key points</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Volatility Trends: Bitcoin’s price swings are on a long-term downward trend as institutional adoption grows, with increased liquidity from futures and ETFs.</li>
 <li>Bitcoin Hedge Insights: Bitcoin functions more effectively as a hedge against long-term currency debasement than as a hedge against short-term inflation.</li>
 <li>Structural Market Risks: Bitcoin’s trading structure, featuring leveraged perpetual futures markets and automated liquidations, amplifies price volatility compared to other financial assets.</li>
 <li>New Product Risks: Innovations like tokenized bitcoin, ETFs, and Digital Asset Treasury companies introduce extra risks beyond the asset, including counterparty, custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="why-this-matters">Why this matters</h2>
This research suggests Bitcoin’s volatility is trending lower over time while its market connections deepen, linking its performance to broader financial conditions. The addition of new products and tokenized offerings can add complexity and risk, influencing how investors assess exposure to digital assets and their role in diversified portfolios.
<h2 id="what-to-watch-next">What to watch next</h2>
<ul>
 <li>Monitor institutional adoption and liquidity trends as futures and ETFs expand.</li>
 <li>Watch developments in tokenized bitcoin and other new-product offerings for risk implications.</li>
 <li>Observe Bitcoin’s price behavior and its relationship to traditional markets as the asset evolves.</li>
</ul>
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
<h2 id="sp-global-finds-bitcoin-s-evolving-role-in-markets">S&amp;P Global Finds Bitcoin’s Evolving Role in Markets</h2>
— Bitcoin now accounts for more than half of cryptocurrency markets’ nearly $2.33 trillion capitalization*
— <a href="https://coinstats.app/coins/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a>’s price has dropped by nearly half since October 2025
— Price volatility for bitcoin is on a long-term downward trend – though it remains higher than that of traditional assets
NEW YORK (March 5, 2026) – S&amp;P Global today published <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/bitcoin-volatility-trends-deep-dive" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">new research</a> (see report <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/bitcoin-volatility-trends-deep-dive" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">link</a>) examining how bitcoin has evolved from a niche asset to one with meaningful linkages to traditional financial markets.
‘<a href="https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/bitcoin-volatility-trends-deep-dive" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk</a>,’ provides a detailed analysis of bitcoin’s market behavior, price patterns, and market trends.
Key findings from the research reveal:
<ul>
 <li>
 <ul>
 <li>Volatility Trends: Bitcoin’s price swings are on a long-term downward trend as institutional adoption grows, though they remain larger than those of traditional assets. A growing market for bitcoin futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increased bitcoin adoption, which in turn increased liquidity.</li>
 <li>Bitcoin Hedge Insights: The analysis indicates bitcoin functions more effectively as a hedge against long-term currency debasement than as a hedge against short-term inflation.</li>
 <li>Structural Market Risks: Bitcoin’s trading structure, featuring leveraged perpetual futures markets and automated liquidations, amplifies price volatility compared to other financial assets.</li>
 <li>New Product Risks: Innovations like tokenized bitcoin, ETFs, and Digital Asset Treasury companies introduce extra risks beyond the asset, including counterparty, custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.</li>
 </ul></li>
</ul>
Cristina Polizu, Managing Director, S&amp;P Global Ratings, said: “Our research indicates that <a href="https://coinstats.app/coins/bitcoin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bitcoin</a>’s volatility has trended down over the long term, and that its behavior is increasingly linked to broader market conditions. At the same time, the added complexity of new bitcoin-related products can introduce risks beyond the asset itself, including custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.”
<a href="https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/bitcoin-volatility-trends-deep-dive" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk</a>,’ is part of the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Look Forward research series</a>, special reports that offer a deep dive into the most important themes, trends, and topics that are transforming the global economy.
S&amp;P Global: Building on Growth in Digital Assets
S&amp;P Global has continued driving growth in Digital Assets markets, underpinned by its leading analyst-driven research and opinions:
<ul>
 <li>
 <ul>
 <li>May 2021: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices launches its first cryptocurrency index series, “<a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-launches/article/sp-dow-jones-indices-launches-cryptocurrency-index-series-including-sp-bitcoin-index/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">S&amp;P Digital Market Indices</a>“, including Bitcoin and <a href="https://coinstats.app/coins/ethereum/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ethereum</a> indices.</li>
 <li>May 2022: Establishment of dedicated <a href="https://press.spglobal.com/2022-05-17-S-P-Global-Ratings-Establishes-Decentralized-Finance-DeFi-Group-Amidst-Heightened-Investor-Interest" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">DeFi group</a> under S&amp;P Global’s Chief DeFi Officer, Chuck Mounts.</li>
 <li>Jan 2023: Launch of <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/digital-assets/sp-cryptocurrency-defi-index/#overview" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">S&amp;P Cryptocurrency DeFi Index</a>, a DeFi-focused crypto benchmark tracking the performance of selected DeFi tokens / protocols.</li>
 <li>Dec 2023: Launch of S&amp;P Global Ratings’ <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/products/stablecoin-stability-assessment" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Stablecoin Stability Assessments</a> framework covering leading stablecoins.</li>
 <li>Feb-Sept2025: S&amp;P Global Ratings assigns its first ratings to tokenized treasury funds <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3335998" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Janus Henderson’s Anemoy Tokenized Treasury Fund</a>, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/13430315" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the Delta Wellington Ultra Short Treasury On-Chain Fund</a>, and <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101644198" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">OpenEden Group Ltd.’s Tokenized TBILL Fund</a>.</li>
 <li>July 2025: <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-dow-jones-indices-collaborates-with-centrifuge-to-bring-the-sp-500-index-onchain-expanding-access-to-the-world-s-most-widely-recognized-benchmark/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">S&amp;P DJI collaborates with Centrifuge</a> to enter the fund tokenization space by licensing the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
 <li>Aug 2025: First-ever credit rating of a DeFi protocol (<a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/101639449" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Sky Protocol</a>, B- Stable Outlook).</li>
 <li>Sept 2025: <a href="https://centrifuge.io/blog/centrifuge-launches-spxa" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Centrifuge launches SPXA</a>, the first licensed S&amp;P 500® index fund token.</li>
 <li>Oct 2025: S&amp;P DJI announces plans to launch <a href="https://press.spglobal.com/2025-10-07-S-P-Global-to-Launch-Innovative-Crypto-Ecosystem-Index,-a-New-Way-to-Combine-Cryptocurrencies-and-Crypto-Linked-Equities" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">S&amp;P Digital Markets 50 Index</a>, an innovative crypto ecosystem index that combines cryptocurrencies and crypto-linked equities.</li>
 <li>Oct 2025: S&amp;P Global Ratings brings its SSAs On-Chain via <a href="https://press.spglobal.com/2025-10-14-S-P-Global-Ratings-and-Chainlink-Collaboration-Brings-S-Ps-Stablecoin-Stability-Assessments-On-Chain" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Chainlink.</a></li>
 <li>Feb 2026: S&amp;P Global Ratings publishes its <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3520589" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">first-ever rating</a> of a structured finance transaction backed by Bitcoin.</li>
 </ul></li>
</ul>
Media Contacts
Isabel Allanwood
S&amp;P Global
<a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">+ 44 7483 368 605</a>
<a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">isabel.allanwood@spglobal.com</a>
<a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">PR_COE@spglobal.com</a>
Russell Gerry
S&amp;P Global Ratings
<a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">+44 7817 126 628</a>
<a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">russell.gerry@spglobal.com</a>
<h2 id="b-about-sp-global-b">About S&amp;P Global</h2>
S&amp;P Global (NYSE: SPGI) enables businesses, governments, and individuals with trusted data, expertise and technology to make decisions with conviction. We are Advancing Essential Intelligence through world-leading benchmarks, data, and insights that customers need in order to plan confidently, act decisively, and thrive economically in a rapidly changing global landscape.
From helping our customers assess new investments across the capital and commodities markets to guiding them through the energy expansion, acceleration of artificial intelligence, and evolution of public and private markets, we enable the world’s leading organizations to unlock opportunities, solve challenges, and plan for tomorrow – today. Learn more at <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">www.spglobal.com</a>.
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S&P Global Finds Bitcoin’s Evolving Role in Markets

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