<h2 id="tldr">TLDR</h2>
<ul>
 <li>TD Cowen reduced Strategy’s price target to $440 from $500 due to declining bitcoin yield projections</li>
 <li>Strategy acquired 13,627 bitcoins for $1.25 billion last week, boosting total holdings to 687,410 bitcoins</li>
 <li>Stock climbed 5.6% as bitcoin crossed $95,000, but shares remain 62% below July 2024 peak</li>
 <li>Analysts project bitcoin yield will fall to 7.1% in fiscal 2026 from 22.8% in fiscal 2025</li>
 <li>MSCI decided against removing bitcoin treasury companies from its indexes</li>
</ul>
<p>TD Cowen slashed its price target on Strategy to $440 from $500, pointing to a weaker bitcoin yield outlook. The investment bank’s concerns center on dilution from the company’s ongoing equity and preferred stock sales.</p>
<p>Strategy stock gained 5.6% to $182.71 as bitcoin pushed past $95,000 for the first time since November. The crypto rally lifted spirits, but the stock still trades 62% below its July 2024 high of $457.22.</p>
<p><a href="https://knockoutstocks.com/stock/MSTR" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><br> <img src="https://knockoutstocks.com/api/stocks/MSTR/embed" alt="MSTR Stock Card"><br> Strategy Inc, MSTR<br> </a></p>
<p>The company owns 687,410 bitcoins worth over $65 billion at current prices. That makes it the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency, and its stock price typically mirrors bitcoin’s movements.</p>
<p>TD Cowen analysts led by Lance Vitanza expect Strategy to buy approximately 155,000 bitcoins during fiscal 2026. That’s up from a previous estimate of 90,000. But here’s the problem: these purchases will rely more heavily on equity sales rather than debt.</p>
<p>This shift matters because it tanks bitcoin yield. The metric measures percentage change in <a href="https://blockonomi.com/daily-market-update-bitcoin-and-stocks-diverge-as-geopolitical-tensions-impact-markets/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bitcoin</a> held per fully diluted share. Analysts now forecast just 7.1% bitcoin yield for fiscal 2026, down from 8.8% previously projected and far below the 22.8% achieved in fiscal 2025.</p>
<h2 id="aggressive-buying-continues-despite-price-weakness">Aggressive Buying Continues Despite Price Weakness</h2>
<p>Strategy hasn’t pumped the brakes during bitcoin’s recent slump. The company issued roughly 6.8 million common shares and 1.2 million STRC preferred shares during the week ended January 11. The $1.25 billion raised bought 13,627 additional bitcoins.</p>
<p>These purchases generated barely any bitcoin yield since the equity was issued close to parity with bitcoin prices. TD Cowen noted this strategy only pays off if bitcoin rebounds strongly.</p>
<p>The firm thinks that’s likely. They’re modeling bitcoin at around $177,000 by December 2026 and roughly $226,000 by December 2027. Favorable macro conditions and regulatory developments support this outlook, including Thursday’s Senate Banking Committee consideration of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.</p>
<h2 id="premium-to-holdings-collapses">Premium to Holdings Collapses</h2>
<p><a href="https://blockonomi.com/strategy-acquires-13627-bitcoin-for-1-25-billion-total-holdings-reach-687410-btc/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Strategy</a> now trades at just a 10% premium to its bitcoin holdings. That’s a massive drop from the approximately 100% premium seen in summer 2024.</p>
<p>The company’s aggressive accumulation strategy has raised eyebrows. Founder Michael Saylor keeps buying even as prices dip, betting on a recovery that TD Cowen believes will materialize.</p>
<p>Bitcoin currently sits 24% below its October record high above $126,000. The cryptocurrency has gained 9.7% in 2026, while Strategy stock is up around 20% year-to-date.</p>
<p>MSCI provided some relief by announcing it won’t exclude bitcoin treasury companies from its indexes. TD Cowen called this positive for the near term but warned uncertainty persists.</p>
<p>The analysts expressed concern that major MSCI clients like BlackRock might view bitcoin treasury companies as threats to their spot bitcoin ETPs. BlackRock’s bitcoin products generate its largest revenue stream.</p>
<p>Other crypto assets rallied alongside bitcoin. Ethereum and XRP posted gains, while Coinbase stock rose 2% following a 4% jump Tuesday.</p>
<p>TD Cowen expects yield dynamics to reverse in fiscal 2027, with bitcoin yield accelerating to 8.1% and BTC dollar gain exceeding $13.5 billion.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://blockonomi.com/strategy-mstr-stock-td-cowen-lowers-price-target-to-440-on-yield-concerns/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Strategy (MSTR) Stock: TD Cowen Lowers Price Target to $440 on Yield Concerns</a> appeared first on <a href="https://blockonomi.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Blockonomi</a>.</p>
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Strategy (MSTR) Stock: TD Cowen Lowers Price Target to $440 on Yield Concerns

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