2024

South Park

Polymarket

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a US financial regulator,&nbsp;issued a no-action letter to crypto derivatives exchange Bitnomial on Thursday, clearing the way for the exchange to offer event contracts and prediction markets.
The CFTC <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9166-26" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">letter</a> excludes Bitnomial from the strict reporting requirements for asset swaps under current US rules, a hurdle that is impractical for fast-moving platforms <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/articles/decentralized-prediction-markets-how-do-they-work" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">like prediction markets</a>, where tens of thousands of these swaps may occur in a day. Bitnomial must still provide transparent consumer-facing data on its website, including timestamps and sales data for contract markets, and provide relevant data to the CFTC when requested, according to the terms of the letter.
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 <img alt="CFTC issues no-action letter to Bitnomial, clearing way for event contracts" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2026-01/019b9f73-4490-707e-b0eb-d1b9f0e93623.png" title="">
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 The first page of the CFTC no-action letter. Source: <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9166-26" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">CFTC</a>
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All positions must also be collateralized, meaning they cannot be leveraged and must be backed 1:1 to ensure liquidity and prevent cascading liquidations that threaten the platform's solvency. The no-action letter reflects the growing acceptance of prediction markets from US regulators, as blockchain technology opens up new financial use cases that were not possible with legacy financial infrastructure. Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitnomial-cftc-approval-launch-prediction-markets" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitnomial gains CFTC approval to launch prediction markets in US</a>
<h2 id="prediction-markets-gain-steam-in-the-us-since-2024">Prediction markets gain steam in the US since 2024</h2>
Prediction markets <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-election-drives-crypto-prediction-markets-growth-2024" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">gained significant momentum</a> in the US during the 2024 elections, with proponents arguing that they are <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/prediction-markets-information-finance" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">better than polled data at forecasting outcomes</a>. Since that time, prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen increased interest from institutional investors and broken into the cultural zeitgeist.
In September 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket were featured in a South Park episode, a long-running satirical show in the US that touches on major news events and cultural trends.&nbsp;
The following month, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/nyse-parent-invests-2b-in-polymarket-at-9b-valuation" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">invested $2 billion in Polymarket</a> at a $9 billion valuation.
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 <img alt="CFTC issues no-action letter to Bitnomial, clearing way for event contracts" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2026-01/019b9f77-3c9f-7e7f-a387-aae03524d4e3.png" title="">
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 Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan (left) and Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher (right) following $2 billion deal. Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1975967974050926638" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Shayne Coplan</a>
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 Crypto exchange Coinbase <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-acquires-clearing-company-prediction-markets" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">agreed to acquire The Clearing Company</a>, a prediction market startup, in December, as part of its push into prediction markets.
The deal is expected to close in January 2026, which is the year of the US midterm elections, which will likely boost trading volume on prediction markets as the election season kicks off.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/how-crypto-laws-changed-2025-further-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026</a>

CFTC issues no-action letter to Bitnomial, clearing way for event contracts

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