America

bullish

2024

TSMC confirmed on Thursday that the U.S. Department of Commerce has approved a one-year export license for its Nanjing chip plant, allowing it to keep receiving U.S. chipmaking gear without any vendor-level delays.
According to Reuters, the approval replaces the expired exemption program known as validated end-user status, which ended on December 31, under Donald Trump’s administration.
Without this license, shipments would’ve hit a wall starting January. The new authorization covers all U.S.-controlled tools heading into the Nanjing site and skips the need for separate vendor applications.
In a statement to Reuters, TSMC allegedly said the license “ensures uninterrupted fab operations and product deliveries.” That plant, which runs 16-nanometer and other mature node production lines, is not used for TSMC’s most advanced chips.
Still, the company said in its 2024 annual report that the site brought in about 2.4% of its full-year revenue. The company also runs another facility in Shanghai.
South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were granted similar permissions. All three companies had to apply for fresh licenses after their previous privileges expired. Those earlier privileges had given them a smoother path to operate in China despite the U.S. export controls aimed at limiting Beijing’s tech development.
<h3 id="earthquake-hits-taiwan-sites-while-nvidia-pushes-for-more-chips">Earthquake hits Taiwan sites while Nvidia pushes for more chips</h3>
Just as TSMC secured supply chain clearance for China, it had to manage a local disruption. The company said on Saturday that a small number of buildings inside its Hsinchu Science Park campus triggered emergency evacuation procedures after an earthquake.
In a public statement, the company <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-grants-annual-approval-tsmc-chipmaking-tool-exports-china-2025-12-31/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a>, “Prioritising personnel safety, we are conducting outdoor evacuations and headcounts in accordance with emergency response procedures. Work safety systems at all facilities are operating normally.” Operations elsewhere, including the main fabs, weren’t affected.
Meanwhile, Nvidia is leaning heavily on TSMC again. <a href="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/nvidia-ramps-up-h200-production-with-tsmc/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cryptopolitan reported</a> that Jensen Huang’s company is facing huge pressure after Chinese tech companies placed orders for over 2 million H200 chips, while Nvidia only has 700,000 units ready to ship.
That forced them to ask TSMC to start producing more of the H200 chips. Three people briefed on the situation allegedly said that mass production will likely begin by the second quarter of 2026.
There’s still a major hurdle. The chips haven’t been cleared by Beijing yet. And although Trump’s White House lifted the previous export ban in November, shipments to China now come with a 25% tariff.
The clock is ticking while demand surges, and the production bottleneck could hit other Nvidia customers outside China.
<h3 id="wall-street-raises-price-targets-on-tsmc-amid-ai-chip-demand">Wall Street raises price targets on TSMC amid AI chip demand</h3>
Wall Street stays bullish on TSMC’s TSM stock though. On December 7, analysts at Bernstein bumped their price target for <a href="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/taiwan-opens-trade-secrets-chip-tech-leaks/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TSMC</a> to $330, up from $290, maintaining an Outperform rating.
Their note explained that the reason was TSMC’s plan to boost Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) output to 125,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026.
But Bernstein also warned that this won’t be enough to handle both Blackwell and Rubin, Nvidia’s upcoming chip designs for 2025 and 2026.
Then on December 10, Bernstein SocGen Group backed the same $330 target and said TSMC was beating both its own Q4 forecast and the market’s estimates right after the chipmaker reported NT$344 billion in November revenue, a 24.5% surge in a year.
Bank of America went even higher, setting their TSM price target at $360 and argued that TSMC is dominating production for both next-gen AI chips and new mobile processors, which are central to the ongoing demand in high-performance computing.
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U.S. grants annual export license for chip tools to TSMC’s Nanjing facility

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