<p style="text-align: justify">Bitcoin, the largest <a href="https://en.coin-turk.com/crypto-capo-shares-insights-on-community-feedback-and-challenges/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">cryptocurrency</a>, struggled to break the $90,000 threshold this week, facing renewed technical pressure. This pressure was highlighted by a concerning dip below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a long-term trend indicator. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that past cycles have seen an average decline of 54% following such a drop, suggesting a potential target around the $40,000 range. During this period, CryptoQuant data indicated that recovery attempts have been limited due to weak demand and a prevailing “Extreme Fear” sentiment.</p>
<h2 id="challenges-in-overcoming-the-50-week-sma">Challenges in Overcoming the 50-Week SMA</h2>
<p style="text-align: justify">In previous cycles where Bitcoin lost the 50-week SMA, the cryptocurrency experienced an average decline of around 54%. Historical comparisons based on current price levels have brought the $40,000 level back into focus. The 50-week SMA is monitored as a critical line separating bullish and bearish phases in the market, with persistence below it often associated with prolonged periods of weakness rather than short-term corrections.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">Martinez, instead of predicting an immediate collapse, emphasized the growing risk. Failure to surpass the average in the coming weeks frames downward possibilities more convincingly. Weekly closings below this indicator strengthen a cautious stance on the technical side.</p>
<h2 id="insight-from-blockchain-data">Insight From Blockchain Data</h2>
<p style="text-align: justify">CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s correction post-peak might be nearing a “late stage.” Demand weakness is constraining upward movements, and sentiment remaining at “Extreme Fear” levels suggests a lack of recovery in risk appetite. Although there are ongoing Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the limited price response feeds the perception that spot demand dynamics are not equally supportive.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">Blockchain data indicates that the <a href="https://en.coin-turk.com/jim-cramers-criticism-of-crypto-industry-sec-actions-binance-and-solana-debates/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coinbase</a> Premium Index’s negative trend suggests weak U.S.-based spot demand. Slowing “whale” entries into major exchanges further indicate weak large-scale accumulation. CryptoQuant also monitors increased activity among 7–10-year-old BTC, which in the past has been seen before distribution phases or trend transitions.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">The analysis firm’s general assessment leans towards a mild downward trend until demand indicators improve. Key areas to watch include whether the 50-week SMA is reclaimed, sentiment exits the “Extreme Fear” zone, and strengthening of spot demand signals.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify">Meanwhile, before any year-end “Santa rally” expectations could develop, a notable price anomaly occurred on the <a href="https://en.coin-turk.com/biden-thanks-nigeria-for-assisting-binance-executives-release/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Binance</a> exchange. In a matter of seconds, in the BTC/USD1 pair, Bitcoin dropped to $24,111 before rebounding above $87,500. The movement was confined to the USD1 pair, with no similar fall observed in other major BTC markets. For those unaware, USD1 coin is a new stablecoin associated with World Liberty Financial (WLFI) backed by the Trump family, and the pair quickly stabilized. Experts suggest this event was a liquidity-driven tremor that doesn’t alter the fundamental dynamics. João Wedson from Alphractal noted that similar atypical jumps are more frequent in bear markets.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://en.coin-turk.com/bitcoin-faces-potential-54-drop-as-key-indicator-falters/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Faces Potential 54% Drop as Key Indicator Falters</a> appeared first on <a href="https://en.coin-turk.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">COINTURK NEWS</a>.</p>

Bitcoin Faces Potential 54% Drop as Key Indicator Falters

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