FOMC

Bitcoiners were noticeably more upbeat on social media today as the odds of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December nearly doubled compared to just a day earlier.
Some crypto market participants are speculating that this could be the catalyst Bitcoin (<a href="/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer">BTC</a>) needs to halt the asset’s downward trend.
“Let’s see if that’s enough to find a bottom here for now,” crypto analyst Moritz <a href="https://x.com/onchainmo/status/1991855529317327203?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> in an X post on Friday, as Bitcoin’s price trades at $85,071, down 10.11% over the past seven days, <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">according</a> to CoinMarketCap.
On Friday, the odds of an interest rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting almost doubled to 69.40%, <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">according</a> to the CME FedWatch Tool. Just the day before, on Thursday, it was nearly 30.30% lower, at 39.10%.&nbsp;
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve, United States" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019aa883-2950-7328-9df3-33bb2d50dcca" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 The odds of a US Federal Reserve rate cut jumped 30.30% on Friday. Source: <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">CME Group</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Many in the wider market attributed the spike at least partly to dovish remarks from New York Fed president John Williams, who <a href="https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/el-erian-warns-markets-not-171809890.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> the Fed can cut rates “in the near term” without endangering its inflation goal. Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal <a href="https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1991852959689511299?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> it was the reason the odds have “massively increased.”
<h2 id="setup-looking-unfathomably-bullish-says-analyst">Setup looking “unfathomably bullish,” says analyst</h2>
However, economist Mohamed El-Erian warned market participants not to get “carried away” by the comments. Meanwhile, the broader crypto community has reacted even more bullishly. “Usually this would be bullish,” Mister Crypto <a href="https://x.com/misterrcrypto/status/1991851213722132567?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> in an X post on Friday.&nbsp;
The Fed cutting rates is typically bullish for riskier assets such as Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as traditional assets such as bonds and term deposits become less lucrative to investors.
<figure>
 <img alt="Cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve, United States" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-11/019aa885-4dda-732f-8fce-4f6199ffa789" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a href="https://x.com/TedPillows/status/1991923837840379927?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Ted</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Crypto analyst Jesse Eckel pointed to the surging rate cut odds and <a href="https://x.com/Jesseeckel/status/1991913471844450534?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a>, “If you zoom out, the setup is unfathomably bullish.”
“I don’t know why we keep going lower,” Eckel said. “We are going from a tightening cycle into an easing cycle,” he added.
Crypto analyst Curb <a href="https://x.com/CryptoCurb/status/1991914504024711342?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a>, “Crypto will explode in a massive rally.”
<h2 id="odds-of-rate-cut-were-previously-mispriced">Odds of rate cut were previously “mispriced”</h2>
Coinbase Institutional <a href="https://x.com/CoinbaseInsto/status/1991962990439182408?s=20" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">said</a> in a X post on Friday, “While markets are leaning toward ‘no cut’ this time, we believe the odds for a rate cut are actually mispriced. Recent tariff research, private market data, and real-time inflation indicators suggest otherwise.”
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-etf-outflows-rebalancing-not-institutional-flight" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC ETF outflows are 'tactical rebalancing,' not institutional flight: Analysts</a>
“Since the October FOMC meeting, futures have shifted from expecting a 25bps cut to favoring a hold, mainly due to rising inflation concerns,” Coinbase Institutional said.
“However, studies show that tariff hikes can lower inflation and increase unemployment in the short term, acting like negative demand shocks,” it added.
It comes as sentiment across the entire crypto market has remained weak over the past seven days. The Crypto Fear &amp; Greed <a href="https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/#google_vignette" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Index</a>, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 14 in its Friday update.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-holder-metaplanet-btc-buys-south-korea-stablecoin-asia-express/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin whale Metaplanet ‘underwater’ but eyeing more BTC: Asia Express</a>

Bitcoiners perk up as odds of a December Fed rate cut almost double

Table of Contents

Cointelegraph

Other articles published on Nov 22, 2025

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!