President Donald Trump

Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) starts its first full week of “Uptober” fresh from a new all-time high. What lies in store for BTC price action next?
<ul>
 <li>Bitcoin snags a new record over the weekend, but traders expect some consolidation before heading toward $150,000.</li>
 <li>BTC price support retest targets focus on $118,000 and above.</li>
 <li>Classic bull-market gains may take longer to become reality, says an AI-based BTC price prediction tool.</li>
 <li>Macroeconomic cues are expected to come from Federal Reserve officials this week amid the ongoing US government shutdown.</li>
 <li>Crypto market sentiment just avoids “extreme greed” with Bitcoin’s move to all-time highs.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="br-150-000-becomes-new-btc-price-goal"> $150,000 becomes new BTC price goal</h2>
After an unusual weekend all-time high, Bitcoin is consolidating near the top of its historical trading range to start the week.
Data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*enpnlb*_ga*MTE3NDE3MjgzMC4xNzE1NjcwODE1*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTc0NDcyNDI2NS40MS4xLjE3NDQ3MjQyNjkuNTYuMC45MTY3MzAwMzI." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITSTAMP" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">TradingView</a> shows that BTC/USD is trading around $124,000.
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8e2-ea6d-7729-8952-0e076328b89c" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The start of futures trading produced a “gap” that barely appeared before being filled —&nbsp;something trader Daan Crypto Trades described as a “classic weekend squeeze and retrace.”
“Bitcoin did end up making a relatively small gap on the CME futures chart but nothing noteworthy,” he wrote in an <a href="https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/1975046299453182152" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">X post</a>.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “There's still the larger gap at $110K from last weekend but I wouldn't value that until price gets within a few % from it. Especially if this trend keeps going into price discovery, you often see big gaps left behind on both the CME chart &amp; Liquidity levels.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8d6-3b8a-7572-96b0-c54447e1ef3b" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USDT 15-minute chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
For fellow trader Crypto Tony, BTC price upside targets hinge on its treatment of $123,000.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$BTC</a> / <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24USD&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">$USD</a> - Update Weekly closed above $123,000. Now the bulls must hold this level for that sustained bullishness. <a href="https://t.co/Kn0vJ2dxfL" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/Kn0vJ2dxfL</a>— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoTony__/status/1975095679702938045?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">October 6, 2025</a>
</blockquote>
“$BTC has now reached a crucial resistance level,” crypto analyst and entrepreneur Ted Pillows <a href="https://x.com/TedPillows/status/1975112792798544235" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">continued</a>.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “Yesterday, Bitcoin pushed above this level, but the move was entirely perps driven. If institutions bid again like last week, a reclaim is possible.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8d6-ed73-75d8-81a8-dabd593ba332" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Ted Pillows/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Zooming out, appetites for higher levels are strong, with <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-eyes-big-weeks-ahead-all-time-high" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reporting</a> on expectations of $150,000 or more next.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 Good morning!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">#Bitcoin</a>'s new leg higher is underway, starting with a new ATH, and a new highest weekly close. Next target: $150,000. <a href="https://t.co/p5EJqusjDR" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/p5EJqusjDR</a>— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1975111809079427083?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">October 6, 2025</a>
</blockquote>
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe argued that the $150,000 mark should come after a consolidation phase.
“I don’t think #Bitcoin will blast through the ATH in one-go. It needs a little bit of patience, before it should continue moving,” he <a href="https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1975098447863919067" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">told</a> X followers on Monday.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “In that aspect, I expect to see a correction and anything beneath $121.5K is a good area to enter before we'll head to $150K.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8d7-6ec0-7433-b70b-c3924d2e2a81" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USDT six-hour chart with RSI data, trading volume. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
 
<h2 id="bitcoin-traders-eye-as-much-as-4-dip">Bitcoin traders eye as much as 4% dip</h2>
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-corrects-from-125k-all-time-high-where-will-btc-price-bottom" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph reported</a>, market participants still expect some form of BTC price retracement to occur from record levels.
No bull run goes up in a straight line, and key targets for a support retest are now materializing.
Among them is the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour time frames at the time of writing, which was at $119,250 and rising quickly.
“For the week ahead, I think we could see a 4h50EMA retest - it’s overextended and you can see the retests in previous similar Price Action,” trader CrypNuevo <a href="https://x.com/CrypNuevo/status/1974714507529495000" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">wrote</a> in an X thread on Sunday.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “After that, we should see a new move up higher. Therefore, I'm still favoring longs over shorts from the 4h50EMA.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b3dc-6795-77e2-9065-9a6f07d616bd" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD one-day chart with four-hour 50EMA. Source: CrypNuevo/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
An accompanying chart highlighted the results of interaction with the EMA since the start of May.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, meanwhile, argued that it was unreasonable to expect the price to launch into unknown territory without first establishing support at the top of its range.
“There’s should be no surprise that Bitcoin has rejected from ~$124k on the first time of asking in this uptrend. After all, the last time Bitcoin rejected from $124k, the rejection preceded a -13% pullback,” he <a href="https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1974490672284488139" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">told</a> X followers over the weekend.
<blockquote>
 “Bitcoin needs to prove this $124k resistance is a weakening point of rejection. And any shallower dip or pullback from here would do just that.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b3dc-e992-77fc-b736-364b78e36033" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Rekt Capital suggested that a 4% dip to meet a rising trend line at around $118,000 would mean that Bitcoin would “still be positioned for additional upside later on.”
“I would not want to see price lose that $117K-$118K again. This was roughly the mid range and a very high volume area,” Daan Crypto Trades, said in his <a href="https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/1975093918422508018" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">X update</a> on Monday.
<blockquote>
 “Overall structure looks good, just needs to maintain higher highs and higher lows from here on out. If this starts ranging again between $112K-$124K that would not be great for the larger view I think.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8d9-37c0-7e05-8358-0f773e49b8b7" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD one-day chart with trading volume. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="ai-says-no-more-bitcoin-uptober">AI says no more Bitcoin “Uptober”</h2>
Amid increasing excitement over the crypto bull run’s next innings, a new style of prediction tool may disappoint those hoping for swift gains.
In one of its “<a href="https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/68e2e03f3272c84398d72d00-Bitcoin-October-Outlook-Deep-Learning-Model-Signals-Extended-Range-Bound-Movemen" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Quicktake</a>” blog posts on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant raised questions over how “Uptober” may shape up.
“After a significant uptrend, the price has entered a consolidation phase between the key support at 108,000 and the resistance at 123,000,” contributor CryptoOnchain summarized.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “This price action on the technical chart shows signs of a ‘re-accumulation’ period, during which large market players may be accumulating their positions for the next major move.”
</blockquote>
BTC/USD surprised with a new all-time high over the weekend, but despite this, the rest of the month risks not meeting expectations.&nbsp;
The proof, CryptoQuant says, comes from AI. Its proprietary forecasting tool, NBeats Ensemble, which gathers data from nearly 400 “onchain features,” now says that the odds of an October BTC price breakout are “low.”
“The model’s prediction is for continued fluctuations within the current range. However, there is a subtle yet important nuance in this forecast: the model expects these fluctuations to occur primarily in the upper half of the range,” the post said.&nbsp;
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8da-6dae-79ef-af25-69117e046238" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD forecast (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Bitcoin should thus spend multiple weeks preparing a resistance breakout, which will flip $123,000 from resistance to support. Hodlers, meanwhile, need patience.
“By combining technical analysis with the AI model’s forecast, the most probable scenario for October 2025 is the continuation of Bitcoin’s neutral, range-bound movement,” CryptoQuant concluded.&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “Traders should closely monitor the support level at 108,000 and the resistance at 123,000, as a decisive break of either level could define the next mid-term directional move.”
</blockquote>
<h2 id="fed-officials-to-speak-as-shutdown-halts-data">Fed officials to speak as shutdown halts data</h2>
The ongoing <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-125k-rise-us-gov-t-shutdown-macro-factors-analysts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">US government shutdown</a> adds to the list of delayed macroeconomic data this week.
That makes for an interesting round of appearances by senior Federal Reserve officials, several of whom are due to take to the stage over the coming days.
They include SEC Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver prerecorded welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference in Washington. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will make two appearances at the event.
Powell has <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/united-states-donald-trump-jerome-powell-consequences-firing-federal-reserve" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">long been under pressure</a> from US President Donald Trump to quicken interest-rate cuts,&nbsp;something the Fed only voted to commence last month after holding rates steady throughout 2025.
The absence of data, notably pertaining to the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-due-108k-ping-pong-5-things-bitcoin-this-week" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">weakening labor market</a>, creates friction. The Fed’s <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">next rate decision</a> is about three weeks away.
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8dc-2cfc-7bca-b3f8-0e80d1cf55d2" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Fed target rate probabilities for October meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool
 </figcaption>
</figure>
“The markets are looking ahead to the October and December Fed meetings amid the shutdown,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter <a href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1974861997578862644" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">summarized</a> in an X thread.
For crypto and risk-asset bulls, tailwinds remain. The shutdown, sources argue, is likely to remain a “<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-pushes-118k-us-govt-shutdown-non-event" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">non-event</a>” for the markets, and with six months of straight gains for US stocks, there is increasingly little reason to doubt the uptrend.
“The stock market continues climbing the ‘wall of worry,’ trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “<a href="https://www.mosaicassetco.com/p/the-market-mosaic-10525" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">The Market Mosaic</a>.”&nbsp;
<blockquote>
 “Despite concerns over the health of the labor market and economic impact of the government shutdown, the S&amp;P 500 is hovering near record highs and has spent 108 consecutive days trading above its 50-day moving average.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8dd-d7ec-773c-9e29-9b471e12ba64" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 US Dollar Index (DXY) one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView 
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Among the risks to the strength of the risk-on rally, Mosaic highlighted a possible rebound in US dollar strength, as indicated by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The index has struggled with a rebound after hitting 96.22 in mid-September — its lowest level since February 2022.
<h2 id="br-greedy-but-not-too-greedy"> Greedy, but not too greedy?</h2>
In just 10 days, crypto market sentiment has flipped on its head —&nbsp;but traders have kept their cool at all-time highs.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-price-prediction-altcoin-season-doubts-bitget-hodlers-digest/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin may move ‘very quick’ to $150K, altseason doubts: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 28 – Oct. 4</a>
The latest readings from the <a href="https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index</a> show that while “greed” now dominates, excessive emotions have not yet entered the market.
On Sunday, the Index hit local highs of 74/100, stopping short of its “extreme greed” zone to drop back to 71/100 to start the week.
Those levels still represent a threefold increase versus lows of 26/100 seen on Sept. 26.
<figure>
 <img alt="BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-10/0199b8df-5265-7292-aea6-d28b03b7ddc7" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Bitcoin’s previous all-time high in mid-August, for reference, delivered peak Fear &amp; Greed Index readings of 75/100, with the trip to $125,700 thus narrowly forming a divergence with price.
Elsewhere, another sentiment measure, this time from crypto analytics platform Alphractal, closely tracked the late September lows and subsequent rebound.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 This is the most accurate sentiment analysis metric in the crypto market that I know. The Fear and Greed Index generates some noise, but this one is the pure alpha of the sentiment from analysts who set the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin😆 Chart: <a href="https://twitter.com/Alphractal?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@Alphractal</a> <a href="https://t.co/slClE3mj1T" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://t.co/slClE3mj1T</a> <a href="https://t.co/oFr9kzv4UM" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/oFr9kzv4UM</a>— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) <a href="https://twitter.com/joao_wedson/status/1974196716233765187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">October 3, 2025</a>
</blockquote>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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