Will $100K Bitcoin price trigger a big correction?

On Nov. 21, BTC’s price surged by over 4.50% to a new all-time high of $98,367 (data from Bitstamp). Its gains prompted the crypto market capitalization to rise 3.65% to reach the $3.17 trillion milestone.

Meanwhile, the calls for even higher Bitcoin prices in 2025 are growing.

BTC price could hit $200,000 by 2025: Bernstein Research

Analysts at Bernstein predicted in their October “Black Book“ that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Their bullish prediction stems from rising institutional demand, positive regulatory shifts, and pro-crypto appointments by Donald Trump.

Another driver for Bitcoin's potential growth is the proposed establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve.

Bitcoin’s regression model predicts $150,000 top this bull cycle

Bitcoin could peak out at around $150,000 in 2025, based on its post-halving performance and historical patterns identified by the Logarithmic Regression Model.

If a similar trajectory plays out, a rally of 300–400% from the April 2024 halving aligns perfectly with the $150,000 upper band of the regression model.

With a pro-crypto administration potentially introducing regulatory clarity and institutions ramping up adoption, Bitcoin appears ready to continue its historical pattern in 2025.

2021 Bitcoin chart fractal hints at correction after $100K

On the more cautious note, Bitcoin appears to be forming a bearish divergence similar to its price action in 2021, raising concerns that its current rally may peak at $100,000 before a significant correction ensues.

In 2021, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000, while its RSI displayed a bearish divergence—higher prices paired with declining RSI.

This divergence preceded a sharp 77% drop in Bitcoin's price, touching its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) during the decline.

A similar setup could be emerging now, with Bitcoin trading near $97,500 and RSI showing signs of weakening momentum.

If history repeats, Bitcoin’s current bull cycle could top out around the psychologically significant $100,000 level, followed by a corrective move. An interim target for such a pullback would be the 50-week EMA at around $60,000, suggesting a potential correction of over 40% in 2025.

Interestingly, the $60,000 level aligns with a key ascending trendline that has acted as support throughout Bitcoin’s recent bull cycle.

Historical data suggests that testing this trendline could flush out weak hands, paving the way for strong buyer interest at discounted prices. The subsequent rebound could target the psychologically significant $100,000 level once again by 2025’s end.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.