bullish

Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC</a>) moved to an intraday high of $62,338 on Oct. 4 as stronger-than-expected jobs data for September and bullish onchain metrics added tailwinds to the idea of a rally in quarter 4.&nbsp;
<figure><img alt="‘Uptober’ builds strength as Bitcoin held on exchanges falls to 6-year low" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/019258be-a486-70e5-a42f-a8b18c72948d" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD daily chart. Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/76Wh9dnj/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="https://www.tradingview.com/x/76Wh9dnj/">TradingView</a>
 </figcaption>
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Bitcoin’s price action occurred as <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-us-employment-btc-price-snatches-62k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">September’s US nonfarm payrolls print</a> came in at 254,000, significantly higher than the expected 147,000. The unemployment rate slid to 4.1% from 4.2% in September, versus forecasts for 4.2%.
As a result, market participants have begun pricing in a whopping 97% possibility of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on Nov. 7 following an <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/https-www-cnbc-com-2024-09-18-fed-meeting-live-updates-traders-await-september-interest-rate-cut-html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">aggressive half-point move</a> in September, as per <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">data</a> from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Another possible driver behind the idea of an “Uptober” and a fourth-quarter rally for <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/what-is-bitcoin-a-beginners-guide-to-the-worlds-first-cryptocurrency" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin</a> is the continued decrease in BTC held on centralized exchanges.&nbsp;
Data from CryptoQuant <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=all_exchange&amp;window=DAY&amp;sma=0&amp;ema=0&amp;priceScale=log&amp;metricScale=linear&amp;chartStyle=line" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">suggests</a> there are over 2.8 million BTC in total on centralized exchanges, the lowest number since November 2018 and 500,000 less than the amount seen in March.
<figure><img alt="‘Uptober’ builds strength as Bitcoin held on exchanges falls to 6-year low" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/019258bf-1a2a-7ade-b28e-6cb8925f455d" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin balance exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-exchange-reserves-low-price-retest-60k-bullish-analysts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin reserve on exchanges</a> indicates the number of BTC coins held in known exchange wallets. A low balance shows a decreased amount of available liquidity and, in some scenarios, is followed by bullish price movements.&nbsp;
The data shows that the balance on exchanges has plunged by 12% in the past six months, while <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-is-bitcoin-price-stuck" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin has been stuck</a> in a wide range stretching from $50,000 to $72,000. The drop in balances is relatively similar to that seen between March 2020 and November 2020 before Bitcoin embarked on an extended rally to the 2021 high of $69,000. If history repeats itself, the declining Bitcoin reserve on exchanges could be a precursor to BTC price rising to new record highs.&nbsp;
Another possible headwind for Bitcoin as Q4 unfolds is <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/100-k-bitcoin-price-depends-on-increasing-demand-and-favorable-seasonality-crypto-quant" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">increasing institutional demand </a>through the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.&nbsp;
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/buying-bitcoin-dip-no-brainer-crypto-hedge-fund-manager" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">Buying this Bitcoin dip is a ‘no-brainer’ — Hedge fund manager</a>
Additional data from CryptoQuant <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1842185633692840031" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">reveals</a> that institutional investors went from selling a net 5,000 BTC on Sept. 2 to buying an average of 7,000 BTC by the end of September. This is the highest daily purchase of these investment products since July 21, when net buying was above 9,000 BTC. This demand boosted Bitcoin prices to the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-new-73-6-k-all-time-high-etfs-eat" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="null">current all-time high</a> of $73,835 in Q1, 2024.
<blockquote>
 “If this trend continues, prices may rise further in Q4 2024.”
</blockquote>
<figure><img alt="‘Uptober’ builds strength as Bitcoin held on exchanges falls to 6-year low" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/019258c0-ee01-7deb-81e9-9093b0fbd77e" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Daily change in total spot Bitcoin ETF holdings. Source: CryptoQuant
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</figure>
Before embarking on the much-awaited Q4 rally, crypto analyst Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin price may first drop to rest the adoption curve at $57,000.&nbsp;
<figure><img alt="‘Uptober’ builds strength as Bitcoin held on exchanges falls to 6-year low" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/019258c1-5bad-7100-961d-f34c3dd49d9f" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1842217321902838069" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="null" text="null" title="https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1842217321902838069">Timothy Peterson</a>
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

‘Uptober’ builds strength as Bitcoin held on exchanges falls to 6-year low

Cointelegraph

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