Bitcoin

Quantum

when

Update Sept. 26, 8:10 am UTC: Added comments from Ordinals developer Leonidas.
Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) has achieved significant success since its inception, but some within the community remain concerned about its future.
On Sept. 14, a Redditor on the Bitcoin subreddit <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1fgmetx/what_scares_you_the_most_about_bitcoins_future/?share_id=--JGakC9KCBNtjZUJh8Q4&amp;utm_content=2&amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;utm_name=ioscss&amp;utm_source=share&amp;utm_term=14" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">appealed</a> to the community with a question on the most legitimate concerns about the future of BTC.
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 <img alt="Biggest fears about Bitcoin’s future: Industry weighs in" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-09/01922967-0d0c-7e9f-85e7-38d8244aef48">
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 What scares you the most about Bitcoin’s future? Source: Reddit
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The response,”‘I don’t have enough money to buy more,” received the most upvotes, but many Redditors still shared their concerns. Cointelegraph has picked up a few and contacted some industry executives to see how legitimate those concerns are.
<h2 id="concern-1-quantum-computing-or-ai-could-break-bitcoin-one-day">Concern 1: Quantum computing or AI could break Bitcoin one day</h2>
In the thread, some community members voiced concerns about the possible implications of developments in quantum computing or artificial intelligence for the future of Bitcoin in terms of hacking potential.
Quantum computing is a new area of computer science focused on quantum mechanics to solve problems beyond the ability of the most powerful computers. Companies like Google <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-aims-for-commercial-grade-quantum-computer-by-2029-11621359156" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">spent</a> billions of dollars to build a quantum computer, aiming to launch one in 2029. 
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 <img alt="Biggest fears about Bitcoin’s future: Industry weighs in" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-09/01922965-531a-7a43-9e00-d88cfb6444c2">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Estimates of the likelihood of a quantum computer being able to break the RSA-2048 cryptographic algorithm. Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nokia-industry-40/2024/08/12/quantum-computing-is-coming-heres-what-needs-to-happen-first/#:~:text=Pinpointing%20an%20exact%20timeframe%20is,the%20end%20of%20the%202030s." rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nokia-industry-40/2024/08/12/quantum-computing-is-coming-heres-what-needs-to-happen-first/#:~:text=Pinpointing%20an%20exact%20timeframe%20is,the%20end%20of%20the%202030s.">Forbes</a>
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Despite Google’s first quantum computers potentially coming in about four years, there is still a “long way away from this being a real concern,” according to Trezor’s Bitcoin analyst Lucien Bourdon.
“The Bitcoin community has proven its ability to adapt when necessary,” Bourdon told Cointelegraph, adding that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature allows the implementation of new quantum-safe algorithms.
Once quantum computing is real, it could introduce risks that are not exclusive to Bitcoin, the analyst noticed, stating:
<blockquote>
 “Quantum computers, in theory, could potentially break some cryptographic systems, but this would also disrupt many industries beyond Bitcoin — such as internet security, banking, and military encryption.”
</blockquote>
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan expressed a similar view, stating that the Bitcoin network can “move quickly to adapt to new technology, especially when or if a significant threat is detected.”
Regarding possible risks related to AI, this technology is more likely to enhance Bitcoin by improving its infrastructure and education tools, Bourdon believes.
“One concern for Bitcoin users, however, is that AI can make phishing attacks more convincing. But those using hardware wallets and keeping their recovery seed secure are safe from such attacks,” he opined.
<h2 id="concern-2-centralization-of-miners-and-whales-poses-market-manipulation-threat">Concern 2: Centralization of miners and whales poses market manipulation threat</h2>
Some Redditors also expressed fears over the growing <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-btc-mining-centralization" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">centralization of Bitcoin miners</a> and whales, which could raise concerns about market manipulation.
According to Greenspan, excess concentration of BTC in the hands of few could indeed lead to market manipulation, but it would likely be short-term.
“The invisible hand will always sort things out long term,” the Quantum Economics founder said, adding:
<blockquote>
 “The beautiful thing about Bitcoin is that anybody, rich or poor, can buy or sell as much as they want at any time.”
</blockquote>
Oobit president Phillip Lord also previously mentioned that centralization of BTC holdings could <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/1-percent-bitcoin-holders-btc-supply" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">potentially impact the market</a>. Yet he emphasized that owning a substantial portion of BTC “does not inherently provide direct control over the protocol or the ability to change its code.”
<h2 id="concern-3-bitcoin-s-blockchain-size-could-lead-to-dependencies-on-centralized-proxy-services">Concern 3: Bitcoin’s blockchain size could lead to dependencies on centralized proxy services</h2>
“An ever-growing blockchain size means fewer and fewer actors and devices can participate on the network,” one Redditor <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1fgmetx/comment/ln3sfn1/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=web3x&amp;utm_name=web3xcss&amp;utm_term=1&amp;utm_content=share_button" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">wrote</a>, suggesting that this could potentially lead to “dependencies on centralized proxy services.”
Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/who-is-satoshi-nakamoto-the-creator-of-bitcoin" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Satoshi Nakamoto</a>, capped the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/satoshis-best-kept-secret-why-is-there-a-1-mb-limit-to-bitcoin-block-size" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC block size at 1 MB</a> in 2010, apparently to discourage large amounts of spam transactions. Bitcoin Core developers increased the cap in 2017 by <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://blog.bitmex.com/the-segwit-transaction-capacity-increase-part-1/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">introducing</a> the Segregated Witness (SegWit) upgrade, which allowed blocks to scale up to 4 MB. 
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 <img alt="Biggest fears about Bitcoin’s future: Industry weighs in" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-09/01922964-0216-7de1-ac4b-50d6036e0a8c">
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 Bitcoin’s block size from launch to September 2024. Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/avg-block-size" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/avg-block-size">Blockchain.com</a>
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“Larger blockchains with higher transaction throughput may offer more transactions per second, but they compromise decentralization,” Trezor’s Bourdon said.
He emphasized that Bitcoin’s block size growth is limited, with an average block size of 1.8 MB, while the maximum average blockchain size increase amounts to about 250 MB to 300 MB per day. He noted:
<blockquote>
 “The size of Bitcoin’s blockchain can only grow in a predictable and controlled fashion. This keeps the blockchain manageable for full-node operators, which maintains decentralization.”
</blockquote>
<h2 id="concern-4-stricter-kyc-policies">Concern 4: Stricter KYC policies</h2>
Some Redditors expressed concerns over growing <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/what-is-kyc-and-why-do-crypto-exchanges-require-it" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Know-Your Customer (KYC) regulations</a> by governments around the world.
According to Bourdon, Bitcoin users often view KYC policies as a concern, but such policies don’t pose a direct threat to Bitcoin itself.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/zero-kyc-proposal-prevent-crypto-mitm-scams" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">New zero-KYC proposal aims to secure P2P crypto transactions</a>
“Bitcoin’s design ensures that individuals can send and receive Bitcoin directly between wallets without permission,” the analyst stated. He then expressed confidence that Bitcoin will “remain beyond government control” amid growing adoption, stating:
<blockquote>
 “Over time, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature will likely continue to outlast any attempts at strict control, allowing users to maintain financial independence.”
</blockquote>
According to Ordinals developer Leonidas, the Bitcoin ecosystem should embrace innovations like decentralized finance, Ordinals and Runes to catch up to the state of decentralized tooling.
<h2 id="concern-5-mining-rewards-would-become-inefficient-in-supporting-btc-security-one-day">Concern 5: Mining rewards would become inefficient in supporting BTC security one day</h2>
By design, Bitcoin is programmed to cut mining rewards in half every four years, a process known as <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-how-does-the-halving-cycle-work-and-why-does-it-matter" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin halving events</a>. The latest BTC halving took place on April 20, 2024, cutting miner rewards from <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-2024-completion-confirmed" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC</a>.
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 <img alt="Biggest fears about Bitcoin’s future: Industry weighs in" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-09/01922962-f2e5-702e-b87e-9ed6688e18ec">
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 Bitcoin halvings table. Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://changelly.com/blog/bitcoin-halving-2020-2024/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="https://changelly.com/blog/bitcoin-halving-2020-2024/">Changelly</a>
 </figcaption>
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Bourdon mentioned that Bitcoin miners get rewards not only through block subsidies but also from transaction fees, which have proven adaptive.
“While it’s true that in 20 years, the block subsidy will be much smaller, and the network will rely more on transaction fees if Bitcoin gets widely adopted as it’s expected to, those fees will increase to continue to incentivize miners,” he said.
“If a miner is not profitable or unsatisfied with the returns, they will shut off their machines, reducing the overall hashrate and increasing profitability for other miners,” Quantum Economics’ Greenspan opined, adding:
<blockquote>
 “Therefore, as long as Bitcoin remains valuable, miners will work to secure it, at least for the next 100 years.”
</blockquote>
“Bitcoin’s security budget is the number one threat to the future of Bitcoin,”&nbsp; Leonidas believes. According to the Ordinals developer, a new Web3 economy built on top of BTC could help BTC generate enough revenue via network fees to offset the decrease in block rewards.
“We also need to change the culture of Bitcoin such that fees of 1,000 satoshis per virtual byte are celebrated rather than denounced,” he added.
Magazine: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/donald-trump-bitcoin-burgers-arthur-hayes-fed-rate-cut-hodlers-digest/" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">Trump buys burgers with BTC, Arthur Hayes skeptical on rate cut, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 15 – 21</a>

Biggest fears about Bitcoin’s future: Industry weighs in

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