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On Sept. 25, the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy announced that her recently commissioned research paper has measured global money creation relative to other asset classes.
Alden’s paper revealed that bitcoin moves in the direction of global money supply (M2) 83% of the time and more than other assets.
Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong correlation with global liquidity, making it a potential “liquidity barometer,” the research <a href="https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" data-wpel-link="external">noted</a>.
<h2 id="bitcoin-liquidity-barometer">Bitcoin Liquidity Barometer</h2>
As global liquidity expands, measured through metrics like <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/the-big-influence-of-global-m2-money-supply-on-crypto-markets/" data-wpel-link="internal" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">M2 money supply</a>, bitcoin’s price typically rises; conversely, it tends to decline when liquidity contracts.
Over a study period from May 2013 to July 2024, the research showed a correlation coefficient of 0.94 with global liquidity, indicating a highly sensitive relationship.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 I commissioned a research report, written by <a href="https://twitter.com/samcallah?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@samcallah</a>, to quantify bitcoin’s correlation to measures of global money creation relative to other asset classes.
 Result: bitcoin moves in the directional of global M2 83% of the time; more than other assets.<a href="https://t.co/ODKNqvzdis" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://t.co/ODKNqvzdis</a> <a href="https://t.co/8710g6NKqr" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/8710g6NKqr</a>
 — Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) <a href="https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1838642824494932433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">September 24, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
M2 money is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. It encompasses M1 money, including physical currency, savings accounts, and short-term deposits.&nbsp;It is also used as an indicator of the money available in the economy, influencing inflation, interest rates, and overall economic activity.
When comparing other assets, Alden commented that stocks have earnings that can affect their correlation, and gold has “defensiveness,” which can affect its correlation.
<blockquote>
 “Bitcoin is treated like risk-on gold, basically. So it has the highest correlation.”
</blockquote>
The researchers found that bitcoin’s strong correlation with global liquidity is influenced by its high volatility, which can distort its shorter-term correlations.
The paper concluded that this correlation with global liquidity makes bitcoin “a valuable macroeconomic barometer for investors and traders.”
<blockquote>
 “One can think of Bitcoin as a mirror reflecting the rate of global money creation and the relative strength of the dollar.”
</blockquote>
Earlier this year, Lyn Alden <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/lyn-alden-targets-200000-bitcoin-price-within-next-two-years/" data-wpel-link="internal" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">predicted</a> that BTC prices would reach $200,000 within two years.
<h2 id="m2-increasing">M2 Increasing</h2>
Earlier this week, market analyst ‘Game of Trades’ told his 247,000 X followers that the M2 money supply was entering expansion after reaching the deepest contraction level since 1960.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 ALERT: M2 money supply has now entered expansion
 After reaching the deepest contraction level since 1960 <a href="https://t.co/DX8eXo1ytC" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/DX8eXo1ytC</a>
 — Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) <a href="https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1838231896729543100?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" data-wpel-link="external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">September 23, 2024</a>
</blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the M2 money supply started contracting in March 2022 and began <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" data-wpel-link="external">increasing</a> again in March 2024. It is currently $21.17 trillion in the United States, up 2% over the past six months.
The implications for bitcoin prices are extremely bullish, as many analysts have <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/analysts-renew-calls-for-biggest-altseason-eyeing-crypto-market-breakout/" data-wpel-link="internal" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">predicted</a> that a crypto market bull run will begin in the fourth quarter.
The post <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-emerges-as-key-liquidity-barometer-correlating-with-global-money-supply-trends-research/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Emerges as Key ‘Liquidity Barometer,’ Correlating with Global Money Supply Trends: Research</a> appeared first on <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CryptoPotato</a>.

Bitcoin Emerges as Key ‘Liquidity Barometer,’ Correlating with Global Money Supply Trends: Research

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