bullish

United

Bitcoin

Arthur

Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) set another monthly low on Sept. 8 as analysis warned of the dangers of losing $54,000.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-09/58ec0b26-f33e-42d0-8a6b-c996a9f11add.png" alt="Arthur Hayes sees sub-$50K BTC price as Bitcoin risks 'stark' trend shift">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="moving-average-cloud-hangs-over-bitcoin-bulls">Moving average "cloud" hangs over Bitcoin bulls</h2>
Data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA.." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a> showed a fresh BTC price dip taking BTC/USD to $55,282 on Bitstamp during the Asia session.
Ahead of the week’s key United States <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-us-jobs-miss-warning-bitcoin-retest-49-5-k" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">unemployment data release</a>, Bitcoin looked precarious as bulls failed to halt a slow bleed toward the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-chart-bitcoin-match-49-5-k-lows-days" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">six-month lows</a> seen on Aug. 5.
For popular analyst Caleb Franzen, writing was now on the wall.
<a href="https://x.com/CalebFranzen/status/1831826299389931910/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Uploading a chart</a> of its 200-day simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving average to X, Franzen suggested that BTC/USD was now on the cusp of a more significant downtrend.
The 200-day SMA and EMA sat at $63,840 and $59,462, respectively, at the time of writing, with the space in between forming a so-called “cloud.”
“If Bitcoin loses this green range and has a daily close below $54k (the low daily close on Aug. 5), I'll concede that this is a formal rejection &amp; new low on the 200-day MA cloud,” he commented.
<blockquote>
 “A rejection on the cloud is NOT a bullish characteristic &amp; would represent a stark shift in trend.”
</blockquote>
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-09/1fe00544-d179-4049-b5f7-d257815759af.png" alt="Arthur Hayes sees sub-$50K BTC price as Bitcoin risks 'stark' trend shift">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200SMA cloud. Source: Caleb Franzen/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
A <a href="https://x.com/CalebFranzen/status/1831725320355168704" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">further post</a> on Sept. 5 nonetheless revealed a bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s relative strength indeed (RSI), which was trending up as price declined.
“Bitcoin in a short-term regression downtrend, but with a bullish RSI divergence that's still intact,” Franzen wrote.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-09/b1b34b88-00dc-495e-b068-69a71dd6a372.png" alt="Arthur Hayes sees sub-$50K BTC price as Bitcoin risks 'stark' trend shift">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD 2-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Caleb Franzen/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="bitcoin-trader-warns-sellers-in-control">Bitcoin trader warns sellers in control</h2>
Other popular trading figures meanwhile joined the sense of unease over where BTC price action could head next.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-transactions-dive-30-6-months-btc-price-disinterest" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin transactions dive 30% in 6 months amid BTC price ‘disinterest’</a>
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, even <a href="https://x.com/CryptoHayes/status/1831866865846776035" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">publicly announced</a> a short position, claiming to be expecting sub-$50,000 levels over the weekend.
Popular trader Peter Brandt offered a similar angle, albeit without strict timing.
Identifying a megaphone pattern emerging on the weekly chart, Brandt called for a “massive thrust” into price discovery amid months of sellers having the upper hand.
“A test of the lower boundary would be to 46,000 or so,” he <a href="https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1831778258607862057" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">noted</a> alongside an explanatory chart.
<blockquote>
 “A massive thrust into new ATHs is required to get this bull market back on track. Selling is stronger than buying in this pattern.”
</blockquote>
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-09/86cb393e-11f9-45a3-b78e-4bbd9291dae0.png" alt="Arthur Hayes sees sub-$50K BTC price as Bitcoin risks 'stark' trend shift">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Arthur Hayes sees sub-$50K BTC price as Bitcoin risks 'stark' trend shift

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