bullish

Bitcoin

The financial markets are getting a little crazy, and this could spill over into crypto and gold. August has been a wild ride so far, with traders leveraging like there’s no tomorrow, partly because the liquidity is lower than usual this month.&nbsp;
Add in the fact that corporations are splashing cash on share buybacks—up to $1.15 trillion this year, according to QCP Capital analysts—and you’ve got a recipe for some serious market action.
But that’s not all.&nbsp;
Goldman Sachs has seen record demand from clients buying the dips, which only adds fuel to the fire. As the U.S. elections get closer, this risk-on sentiment could push Bitcoin and gold prices even higher.&nbsp;
Traders are eyeing these assets as potential hedges, and the market could see some big moves, especially with the kind of demand we’re seeing for BTC topside calls.
<h3 id="b-bitcoin-s-election-playbook-what-to-expect-b">Bitcoin’s election playbook: What to expect</h3>
With the U.S. elections coming up, Bitcoin is under the spotlight, and not in a good way. The Democrats are giving crypto the cold shoulder, while the Republicans are promising to put an end to what they call the “unlawful and un-American crypto crackdown.”&nbsp;
This political tension is reflected in the BTC skew, which favors puts as we approach the elections. There’s also a massive 6-point volatility spread between options expiring before and after the election.
Given all this, QCP Capital <a href="https://t.me/QCPbroadcast/1299" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">is</a> suggesting a defensive strategy for Q3. They’re talking about an Amplified Range Accrual over the next 10 weeks.&nbsp;
But there’s a catch. If BTC steps outside that range, you lose 1% of your principal, with a max loss capped at 10% over the 10-week period. Not for the faint-hearted, but hey, this is crypto we’re talking about.
<h3 id="b-bitcoin-and-the-200-day-ema-b">Bitcoin and the 200-Day EMA</h3>
Bitcoin’s price action has been pretty telling lately. It dipped below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) three times this year. The first time was back on July 4, which marked a bearish close.&nbsp;
But don’t worry, it didn’t stay down for long. Within 10 days, Bitcoin was back above the 200-day EMA. This time, it only took less than 24 hours to bounce back, showing that bullish momentum might be creeping in again.
Long-term holders and short-term holders are playing different games here. STHs are the ones day-trading and scalping, trying to squeeze every last drop out of short-term price movements.&nbsp;
They’re usually retail traders or small-time investors. LTHs, on the other hand, are in it for the long haul, holding onto their Bitcoin for at least six months, and many of them are high-net-worth individuals or institutional players.
Interestingly, the long-term holders are seeing some gains. Recent data shows that the realized market cap for LTHs has gone up by $3 billion, a level not seen since December 2023.&nbsp;
The realized cap, by the way, is the sum of all the money that has flowed into Bitcoin, minus the losses from people selling at a loss. It’s a good indicator that money is sticking around in the market, even as we head into a potentially volatile period.

Risk-on sentiment may boost crypto and gold ahead of U.S. elections

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