bullish

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Bitcoin

A key Bitcoin bull signal flashed for the first time in nearly a year, signaling a potential price breakout.
The global liquidity model’s bullish Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" text="null" title="null">BTC</a>) signal was shared by Jamie Coutts, a chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.
Coutts expects Bitcoin to go “much higher,” based on this signal, he wrote in an Aug. 15 X <a href="https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1824053788027851175" text="null" title="null">post</a>:
<blockquote>
 “My composite global liquidity momentum model (MSI), has provided the first Bullish regime signal since November 2023. Recall that Bitcoin rallied 75% from Nov to April before the regime flipped Bearish”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Key Bitcoin bull signal flashes for first time in nearly 2 years, hinting at 2x price surge" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/GVBH_54bMAEsY3o">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin trend and global liquidity regime. Source: Jamie Coutts
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This same bullish signal preceded a 19-fold Bitcoin rally in the 2017 cycle and a six-gold rally in the 2020 cycle, according to Coutts.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-at-perfect-macro-setup-but-dip-below-58-k-risks-500-m-in-liquidations" text="null" title="null">Bitcoin at ‘perfect’ macro setup, but dip below $58K risks $500M in liquidations</a>
<h2 id="can-bitcoin-price-double-to-around-120-000">Can Bitcoin price double to around $120,000?</h2>
The bullish signal could translate into a two to three-fold increase in Bitcoin price, according to Coutts’ estimates.
However, this is largely dependent on the performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and overall global liquidity, explained Coutts:
<blockquote>
 “For BTC to meet this target, the DXY would need to be well below 101, prompted by ongoing central bank injections. This would push global M2 well over $120T this cycle.”
</blockquote>
However, Bitcoin prices may face headwinds in the short term. Over <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-options-expiry-support-pressure-aug-2024" text="null" title="null">$1.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options</a> are set to expire on Aug. 16 at 8:00 am UTC unless Bitcoin can stage a recovery above $60,000.<iframe width="100%" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ay_wUTMNsPQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/first-leveraged-microstrategy-etf-launches-us" text="null" title="null">First leveraged MicroStrategy ETF launches in the US</a>
<h3 id="growing-m2-money-supply-could-bolster-bitcoin-price">Growing M2 money supply could bolster Bitcoin price</h3>
The continually expanding global M2 money supply could help Bitcoin break out above $60,000.
During the past month, the Bank of Japan added $400 million while the People’s Bank of China added $97 billion worth of credit to the global money base, which expanded by $1.2 trillion, according to Coutts.
This trend is likely to continue due to the economics of the fractional reserve system, added Coutts:
<blockquote>
 “This is the natural state in a credit-based fractional reserve system. The money supply must continually expand to support the outstanding debt. Otherwise, everything will collapse.”
</blockquote>
However, Bitcoin’s price action will greatly depend on the inflows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have recently been stagnating.
<figure>
 <img alt="Key Bitcoin bull signal flashes for first time in nearly 2 years, hinting at 2x price surge" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-15%20115613">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Spot Bitcoin ETF flows (US dollars, million). Source: Farside Investors
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Following two consecutive days of positive inflows, ETF inflows turned negative on Aug. 14, as the US ETFs saw a cumulative $81 million worth of negative outflows, <a href="https://farside.co.uk/btc/" text="null" title="null">according</a> to Farside Investors data.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/china-crypto-ban-investors/" text="null" title="null">How Chinese traders and miners get around China’s crypto ban</a>

Key Bitcoin bull signal flashes for first time in nearly 2 years, hinting at 2x price surge

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