When XRP enthusiasts eagerly awaited the resolution of Ripple&#39;s lawsuit against the SEC, many hoped for the mythical &#34;God Candle&#34;—a massive, vertical price spike that would propel XRP to $10 or even $100 overnight.Finally, yesterday was the day of the big news!The lawsuit was settled, and XRP added around 20%, trading at about $0.60. In other words, it is far from the astronomical figures many predicted.So why didn&#39;t we see that explosive rally? Let&#39;s do a reality check!<h3 id="strong-the-result-was-already-priced-in-strong">The Result Was Already Priced In</h3>The SEC filed the lawsuit against Ripple back in December 2020.The news initially caused XRP&#39;s price to plummet as panic and uncertainty gripped the market (I remember the free fall to about $0.2).However, over the years, XRP has decoupled mainly from the lawsuit&#39;s impact, with its price movements becoming increasingly independent of the legal drama. In other words, the market had ample time to digest and price the potential outcomes of the case.By the time the settlement was announced, there had been no shocking news to trigger the dramatic surge many had hoped for.<h3 id="strong-market-cap-reality-check-strong">Market Cap Reality Check</h3>Another factor, often overlooked, is the market cap.At $0.60, XRP boasts a market cap of approximately $34 billion. A sudden jump to $6 would add a staggering $310 billion to its market cap, pushing it to around $344 billion.This level of growth in such a short span is wildly unrealistic, particularly in the current market environment. And that&#39;s without even touching on the outlandish $10 or $100 predictions, which would imply an even more implausible market cap.<h3 id="strong-the-road-ahead-for-xrp-strong">The Road Ahead for XRP</h3>While the &#34;God Candle&#34; was never a realistic expectation, the lawsuit&#39;s resolution is still a positive development for Ripple and the broader crypto market.With the legal uncertainty behind it, XRP is well-positioned for a more gradual, sustained upward trend.Even in a bullish scenario, a realistic peak for XRP during the next market cycle would be around the $4 mark. This level would still represent significant gains from current prices, but it&#39;s essential to maintain realistic expectations as the market evolves.

XRP Reality Check — Why We Haven't Seen That God Candle

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Ben Walther

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