Bitcoin

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Bitcoin’s (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="null" target="null" text="null" title="null">BTC</a>) price has been trading inside a roughly $4,000-high trading range so far in October, consistently holding above the $60,000 support level while facing repeated pullbacks after attempting to break the $64,000 resistance.
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 <img alt="Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/0192719e-0c14-74aa-b872-4f610b704ee5" title="">
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 BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView
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<h2 id="geopolitical-risks-dampen-bitcoin-s-upside">Geopolitical risks dampen Bitcoin’s upside</h2>
Bitcoin’s price is currently stuck due to economic uncertainty and <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-safe-haven-status-questioned-amid-middle-east-conflict" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-safe-haven-status-questioned-amid-middle-east-conflict">geopolitical risks</a>, which are creating a cautious market environment.
For instance, on the one hand, the market is anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, especially while awaiting the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting on Oct. 9 and key inflation data on Oct. 10.
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 <img alt="Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/019271a3-0a2e-77bc-a7ae-e8c18006ecd8" title="">
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 Target rate probabilities for the November Fed meeting. Source: CME
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A rate cut is typically bullish for Bitcoin. However, risk sentiment has been hit by a worsening geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with investors rushing toward safer assets such as the US dollar instead.
The dollar index, for instance, has climbed to its best levels in almost a month, rising especially during Bitcoin’s consolidation within the $60,000-64,000 range. 
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 <img alt="Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/019271a9-efcd-7cd8-a81e-436aba158ff4" title="">
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 US dollar index daily price chart. Source: TradingView
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<h2 id="minimal-sell-side-activity-keeps-btc-s-price-flat">Minimal sell-side activity keeps BTC’s price flat</h2>
The reasons behind Bitcoin’s ongoing rangebound moves could further be traced to the Sell-Side Risk Ratio indicator. 
Notably, the indicator measures the total realized profit and loss relative to Bitcoin’s Realized Cap. A higher ratio means that investors move their coins at substantial profits or losses compared to their initial investment. 
On the other hand, a lower ratio indicates that coins are being sold close to the investors’ break-even point, with minimal profit or loss realized.
As of Oct. 9, the ratio has fallen below the “low-value band,” signaling that very little profit or loss-taking is occurring at current price levels. This lack of decisive action from investors suggests a standstill in the market, contributing to Bitcoin’s stagnant price. 
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 <img alt="Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/019271d0-b233-70e0-acd0-28ce0b905506" title="">
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 Bitcoin sell-side risk ratio. Source: Glassnode
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Without significant selling pressure or profit-taking, the market remains in a state of indecision, keeping Bitcoin’s price range-bound.
Related: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-whales-lack-sufficient-profit-dump-markets-ki-young-ju" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-whales-lack-sufficient-profit-dump-markets-ki-young-ju">BTC whales not in sufficient profit to dump on market — Ki Young Ju</a>
<h2 id="neutral-momentum-shows-traders-bias-conflict">Neutral momentum shows traders’ bias conflict</h2>
Bitcoin’s sideways price moves occur within a rising wedge pattern, confirmed by its contracting, ascending trendlines, which meet at an apex of around $69,750.
<figure>
 <img alt="Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-10/019271dd-a17d-73c5-869a-b195966b569b" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
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Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) hovers around the neutral 50 level, signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions. In other words, there exists a balanced sentiment between buyers and sellers.
Rising wedges typically resolve in bearish reversal moves. Its breakdown occurs when the price breaks below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the maximum distance between the wedge’s upper and lower trendlines.
If the rising wedge breakdown setup plays out, BTC’s price risks falling toward the $49,700-56,000 range by the end of 2024.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Why is Bitcoin price stuck?

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