Greed

Bitcoin

Note

The crypto market displays strength as Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC</a>) price sets a new <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-breaks-new-high-above-71-000" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">all-time high at $72,800</a> on March 11.
Data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a> shows that BTC rose from an opening at $69,032, soaring 5.7% to set a new year-to-date high of $72,850 on Monday, March 11.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/bc259b24-f172-4518-99dc-5466791d48af.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD daily chart. Source: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/hR5lAOZs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">TradingView</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This remarkable performance from <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/what-is-bitcoin-a-beginners-guide-to-the-worlds-first-cryptocurrency" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin</a> has led to concerns regarding a sell-off triggered by profit-booking at higher levels.
Here are three technical and market indicators that point to a possible BTC price correction in the short-term
<h2 id="td-sequential-indicator-flashes-a-sell-signal-on-the-12-hour-timeframe">TD sequential indicator flashes a sell signal on the 12-hour timeframe</h2>
Independent analyst Ali spotted BTC price trading above $71,700, warning short-term traders that a reversal could be in the offing.
Ali posted the following chart showing that the TD sequential indicator had sent a sell signal in BTC’s 12-hour chart.
<blockquote>
 “Since early February, every time this indicator suggested selling, the price of $BTC dropped by 1.6% to 3.5%. This trend is something short-term traders should watch closely!”
</blockquote>
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/1d12d04d-085a-4d69-ac5e-fc265281a272.jpeg">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">BTC/USD 12-hour chart. Source: <a href="https://x.com/ali_charts/status/1767141133367288185?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@Ali_charts/X</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The TD sequential indicator is an oscillating trend-following chart overlay indicator that is used to determine short-term trend reversals based on changes in intraday highs and lows.
In this case, the indicator predicts that the BTC price could drop from the current level, dropping as much as 3.5%, to trade around $70,000.
<h2 id="bitcoin-price-shows-an-overheating-signal">Bitcoin price shows an “overheating signal”</h2>
Bitcoin price has been on an “up only” trend since Jan. 23, after the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-sells-off-after-etf-approval-have-investors-turned-bearish" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">“sell-the-news” effect of spot Bitcoin ETFs</a> faded. These new BTC investment funds have seen massive capital inflows since their debut on Jan. 11, with assets under management reaching $55.3 billion on March 11.
This has led to the appearance of “overheated signals” in the Bitcoin market. Analysts at CryptoQuant are warning that BTC could experience major corrections soon despite exploring new all-time highs.
On March 8, the blockchain analytics firm posted a series of posts on the X social network showing some metrics supporting “potential overheating.”
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/30f23a42-86aa-4c36-9fe1-342dd4ff7a74.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">CryptoQuant BTC market cycle indicator. Source: CryptoQuant/X
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</figure>
The firm mentioned another metric showing miners being overpaid as realized profits reached the highest levels since December 2023.
<blockquote>
 “Miners are now deemed extremely overpaid, with profitability hitting its highest level since December 2023.”
</blockquote>
CryptoQuant also highlighted that traders’ unrealized profit margins had reached 57%, which is historically associated with upcoming corrections as traders are bound to book profits in the long run.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/3c4b4b82-a274-4752-8b8d-75a91a10894d.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Bitcoin unrealized profit margins. Source: <a href="https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1766096051511996806?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CryptoQuant/X</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
“Additionally, short-term holders have begun selling at the highest profit margins since February 2021, potentially heralding increased selling pressure,” added CryptoQuant.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-blasts-through-70k-5-things-bitcoin-this-week" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">BTC price blasts through $70K — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week</a>
Meanwhile, data from IntoTheBlock shows that 100% of Bitcoin holders are now in profit, potentially increasing the chances of profit-booking sell-offs in the short term.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/6dfe0ff2-01d1-42e8-938d-8b523d0773cd.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Bitcoin IOMAP chart. Source: IntoTheBlock
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="bitcoin-s-rsi-is-overbought-on-multiple-timeframes">Bitcoin’s RSI is overbought on multiple timeframes</h2>
Coinglass‘s heatmap shows that BTC’s RSI is displaying overbought conditions in four out of five timeframes. Higher intervals display higher RSI values. Bitcoin’s RSI is now at 88.34 on the weekly, 79.34 on the daily, 74.81 on the four-hour, and 70.74 on the hourly timeframe.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/97845306-0271-4750-a065-08f7d6420143.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Crypto market RSI heatmap. Source: Coinglass
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This is corroborated by data from TradingView, which shows BTC’s RSI at 89.2, 79, 72 and 70 on weekly, daily, 12-hour and four-hour timeframes, respectively.
Overbought conditions generally describe recent movements in the price of an asset, and reflect an expectation that the price trend may correct in the near future.
Additional data from Alternative, a platform that tracks “emotions and sentiments” surrounding Bitcoin, showed that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 82 - “extreme greed” conditions.
<figure><img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/76af8add-454e-4d07-b694-522e811a4bfd.png">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Crypto Fear and Fear Index chart. Source: Alternative.me
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Alternative notes, “When investors get too greedy, the market is due for a correction. Note that the last time this index was above 80 was at the height of the 2021 bull market, just before BTC dropped down from its then-all-time high of around $69,000 and tumbled toward $15,000 during the 2022 bear market.
Even though these metrics are cautioning market participants to manage risks, it is important to note that RSI conditions do not guarantee a trend reversal. Crypto prices are highly volatile, and BTC could continue to rally, fueled by increasing demand and the upcoming <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-how-does-the-halving-cycle-work-and-why-does-it-matter" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">supply halving</a>.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 Bitcoin price metrics point to overheated conditions and a potential BTC correction

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