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Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi has shed new light on his “power law” model for predicting the price of Bitcoin, which arrived at a prediction of $10 million per individual BTC by 2045.&nbsp;
A power law is a mathematical relationship where one value is proportional to a fixed power of another value. The power law has been observed throughout a wide range of naturally occurring phenomena, from the frequency of earthquakes to the dynamics of stock market changes.
Santostasi first <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/9cqi0k/bitcoin_power_law_over_10_year_period_all_the_way/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">shared</a> the power law model in the r/Bitcoin subreddit in 2018. However, it witnessed a resurgence in January after finance YouTuber Andrei Jeikh mentioned it in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX8LPbMGyl4" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">video</a> to his 2.3 million subscribers.
Santostasi said the model predicted that Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) could reach a peak of $210,000 in January 2026 and then fall as low as $60,000 afterward.&nbsp;
In a March 2 <a href="https://twitter.com/dotkrueger/status/1763799974981042344?s=46&amp;t=MuRujqZUAz3TQE1vmr3c6A" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">discussion</a> with mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, Santostasi said a power law model displays a more easily understood and predictable model of Bitcoin price action over long time periods. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 First cut from my 90 min deep dive with <a href="https://twitter.com/Giovann35084111?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Giovann35084111</a> This is the chart that you "can't unsee". Non-intuitive aspects of the power law In the next 15 years of Bitcoin, we expect the price to go up not by 2, but by 64! <a href="https://t.co/K1RiQSPt1M">pic.twitter.com/K1RiQSPt1M</a>— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) <a href="https://twitter.com/dotkrueger/status/1763799974981042344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 2, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
In contrast, the majority of short-term Bitcoin price charts used in mainstream media tend to show a “messy” and inaccurate view of Bitcoin’s price action.
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “The linear chart that they usually show in TV — what [Jim] Cramer is talking about — looks messy.” 
</blockquote>
“But when do you the log of the y-axis, and you start to see some regularity there, it doesn’t look that messy, it looks like a very nice pattern,” he explained. 
Santostasi said that, unlike the now <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-bullish-hype-fades-but-analyst-says-planb-s-stock-to-flow-model-is-still-relevant">widely-criticized stock-to-flow model</a>, the power law is logarithmic instead of exponential.
This means Bitcoin’s price doesn’t have to increase constantly over time, and significant fluctuations in price — witnessed most recently <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/how-long-will-the-bear-market-last-signs-to-watch-for-a-crypto-market-reversal">between 2020 and 2023</a> — can still be accounted for under the model. 
Related:&nbsp;<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-daily-withdrawals-records-2b-exchanges">Bitcoin daily withdrawals challenge records as $2B leaves exchanges</a>
In a follow-up post to X on March 3, Krueger outlined further mathematical modeling of the power law when applied to Bitcoin, which predicted that Bitcoin would reach a price of $100,000 within the next two years. 
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-03/e56134ab-2f38-4a20-8a03-a8da520cdb37.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Krueger's modelling of the power law predicts a Bitcoin price of $10 million by 2045. Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/dotkrueger/status/1764046539570446486" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">XFred Krueger</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Krueger added that if Bitcoin adheres to the power law model, its market cap will overtake that of gold by the year 2033, at which point Bitcoin would be worth $1 million per coin. 
Despite Santostasi’s and Krueger’s belief in the power law model, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s2f-model-gives-false-sense-of-certainty-says-vitalik-buterin">critics say that any mathematical model</a> can be prone to substantial errors and does not account for random events that could have a serious impact on price. 
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/crypto-inevitable-all-in-meet-vance-spencer/">‘Crypto is inevitable’ so we went ‘all in’ — Meet Vance Spencer, permabull</a>

Physicist explains how his ‘Power Law’ model got to $10M Bitcoin by 2045

Cointelegraph

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