2024

Bitcoin

April

Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) should break new all-time highs in 2024 — but the halving will punish bulls first, new analysis says.
In its latest market update <a href="https://www.decentrader.com/market_updates/bitcoin-setting-the-scene-for-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">released</a> on Feb. 2, trading suite DecenTrader predicted classic “halving year” BTC price behavior.
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="decentrader-bitcoin-will-test-investors-resolve-before-q4-all-time-high">DecenTrader: Bitcoin will “test investors’ resolve” before Q4 all-time high</h2>
Bitcoin has around one month of sideways price action before markets begin to react to the upcoming <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-how-does-the-halving-cycle-work-and-why-does-it-matter">block subsidy halving</a>, DecenTrader believes.
Summarizing the BTC price roadmap for this year, CEO and co-founder Filbfilb told readers to expect a spike in buying around two months before the halving date, currently estimated for April 18.
This will be followed by another “sell the news event” — <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-speculators-dump-5b-5-things-bitcoin-this-week">similar to the events surrounding</a> the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January.
“Circa 75 days remain until the Bitcoin halving, with it due to occur around the 18th April 2024. This is important if we make a simple assumption, that there will be buying interest some time before the halving. I would expect this to be no later than 6 weeks before the halving – or around the second week of March,” Filbfilb wrote. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “This would mean that Bitcoin has around 30 days from now to meander through its corrective phase before finding the FOMO demand anticipated.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-02/1ef77f20-d475-4cfc-8275-2003fee590b3.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: DecenTrader
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Anticipation among speculators could take BTC/USD to its current two-year highs of $49,000 before an ETF copycat sell-off ensues.
Thereafter, however, the path opens up to price discovery hitting before 2024 is over — a phenomenon seen during Bitcoin’s last halving year in 2020.
“Bitcoin has a tendency to front run the sell-the-news with a halving so bear that in mind,” Filbfilb continued. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Following the Halving, Bitcoin has taken 220 – 240 days to break to new all time highs. I am expecting a similar outlook, with Bitcoin taking a trip to new all time highs in mid to late Q4 of 2024, which give some time for a correction to test investor’s revsolve inbetween.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-02/bfd7ef2a-7ab4-4554-be5f-d3485cbd384a.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin bull market comparison chart. Source: DecenTrader
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="bitcoin-halving-not-different-this-time">Bitcoin halving: Not different this time?</h2>
The timing of the coming months’ BTC price fluctuations makes Q1 difficult to navigate for traders.
Related:&nbsp;<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-150-days-5k-btc-price-trading-range">Bitcoin approaches 150 days in a $5K BTC price trading range</a>
As Cointelegraph reported, beyond Bitcoin-specific factors, macroeconomic and geopolitical <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-risks-30k-supercharged-inflation-arthur-hayes">hurdles are lining up to cause</a> wider risk-asset turbulence.
These include United States banking system weakness — something which Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, sees coming to a head in March.
Others believe a new all-time high for BTC/USD will not come <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/standard-chartered-tips-200k-btc-2025-if-spot-bitcoin-etf-approved">until the end of 2025</a>.
For Filbfilb, there is little reason to be overly optimistic on what the coming weeks will bring.
“What has become apparent is that a lot of people are convincing themselves that Bitcoin is going to run to new all time highs ahead of the Halving because ‘it’s different this time,’” he explained.
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “I personally expect it to be no different to previous instances; there is an uncannily accurate market cycle schematic for Bitcoin born out of the emotions of investors into an asset class to which many are emotionally attached – it seems unwise to expect this to break (favorably) now.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-02/94b47184-bd1a-43a4-920b-4617aa1374c1.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
BTC/USD traded at just under $43,000 into the Feb. 4 weekly close, per data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a>.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin faces ‘sell the news event’ before 2024 BTC price all-time high

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