Survive

2024

Argo

Bitcoin

As the Bitcoin halving event, scheduled to occur later this year by April, approaches, financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald has recently <a href="https://twitter.com/smatthewschultz/status/1750558875600982064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">released</a> a report indicating that post-halving, the profitability of major publicly traded BTC miners could be <a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-plunges-7-miners-continue-selling-pressure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">severely impacted</a>. 
Eleven out of thirteen of these miners, including notable names such as Argo Blockchain and Hut 8 Mining, may struggle to maintain profitability. 
<h2 id="assessing-the-profitability-of-top-miners-post-event">Assessing The Profitability Of Top Miners Post-Event</h2> 
This impending halving will slash the reward miners receive by half, a mechanism intrinsic to BTC’s design to preserve its scarcity. While the event is often seen as a bullish catalyst for BTC’s price in the long run, it poses challenges for mining operations, especially those with substantial overheads. 
Cantor Fitzgerald’s analysis, spotlighting the “all-in” cost per Bitcoin, estimates that only two miners, Bitdeer and CleanSpark, are likely to sustain profitability under the new reward structure, assuming BTC’s price stays above the $40,000 threshold. 
Meanwhile, Argo Blockchain (ARBK) and Hut 8 Mining (HUT) are flagged as the most at-risk entities, facing a post-halving estimated cost per Bitcoin exceeding $60,000. 
The report further indicates that major players in the industry, Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT), with market values of $3.62 billion and $2.19 billion respectively, may also struggle to maintain profitability. 
Their predicted cost to produce a single BTC post-halving stands at roughly $50,559 for Marathon Digital and $43,913 for Riot Blockchain. 
Furthermore, despite the<a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-miners-switch-to-selling-rally-ends-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener "> impending challenges</a>, there are bright spots in the report. Bitdeer and CleanSpark emerge as the most efficient miners, with lower “all-in” costs per Bitcoin, at $17,774 and $36,896, respectively. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 *BREAKING – new today! 
 No matter the department, the entire team at <a href="https://twitter.com/CleanSpark_Inc?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">@CleanSpark_Inc</a> is committed to efficiency. EFFICIENCY of Uptime, Equipment, Capital, Operations, Community Engagement, Energy, Strategy, Growth, and other metrics. 
 Today’s brand new report from the research… <a href="https://t.co/YgQ6XrIXh2" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">pic.twitter.com/YgQ6XrIXh2</a> 
 — S Matthew Schultz (@smatthewschultz) <a href="https://twitter.com/smatthewschultz/status/1750558875600982064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">January 25, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
<h2 id="bitcoin-btc-latest-price-action">Bitcoin (BTC) Latest Price Action</h2> 
Notably, the broader Bitcoin market is currently showing signs of recovery, which could <a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-boom-miners-reap-rewards-as-halving-nears/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">positively impact the mining industry</a>. Despite a recent slump, Bitcoin’s price has seen a modest increase, currently<a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-plunges-42000-miners-sell-another-1000-btc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener "> trading above $41,000</a>. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/fgORBMGC/" alt="Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView.com" width="2770" height="1556"> 
This uptick, however, follows a period of downturn, where the asset saw a significant drop in the past two weeks falling from a peak above $48,000 leading to a 10.4% decline over this period. 
Meanwhile, as the halving event draws near, Bitcoin miners are reportedly <a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-miners-ramp-up-selling-pressure-concern/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">ramping up their selling pressure</a>. On-chain data indicates a sharp spike in the Miners’ Position Index (MPI), suggesting increased selling activity. 
The MPI tracks the ratio of miner outflows to the 365-day moving average. A value greater than 1 indicates potential heavy selling, which could exert bearish pressure on Bitcoin’s price. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> 
 Miners Selling Bitcoin Reserves Ahead of Halving – A Strategic Move 
 “In fact, the flow of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">#Bitcoin</a> from miners to exchanges is now three times higher than the movement from exchanges to miners. This trend signals a strong selling pressure from the mining community.” 
 By… 
 — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href="https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1750654514263114197?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">January 25, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Halving Havoc: Why Few Miners May Survive The Upcoming Profitability Crunch

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