2024

Bitcoin

<p>Since its creation in 2009, Bitcoin has not only experienced significant growth but also substantial fluctuations. The result: it is now difficult to predict the price of this cryptocurrency. According to analyst PlanB, there are two models currently available to anticipate Bitcoin’s price evolution.</p>
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     <p lang="en" dir="ltr">My two favorite bitcoin models:<br>– 2019 Stock-to-Flow model (prediction)<br>– 2022 Market Cycle model (detection)<br>Bitcoin is perfectly on track. Patience is key. <a href="https://t.co/MdV9DI9c2o" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">pic.twitter.com/MdV9DI9c2o</a></p>— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) <a href="https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1749154803383521511?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">January 21, 2024</a>
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  Plan B’s favorite two models for forecasting and trend detection of Bitcoin <br> <br>
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<h2 id="the-stock-to-flow-model-for-predicting-bitcoin-s-price">The stock-to-flow model for predicting Bitcoin’s price</h2>
<p>The stock-to-flow model, proposed by analyst PlanB in 2019, compares the stock of existing Bitcoin (BTC) to the flow of new bitcoins created each year. Bitcoin is scarce because there is a limited number of bitcoins that can be mined (a maximum of 21 million). Furthermore, the flow of new bitcoins is cut in half every four years during the halving event.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">stock-to-flow</a> model thus calculates <strong>a ratio between the stock and flow of bitcoins</strong>. It measures their degree of scarcity. The higher this ratio, the more Bitcoin’s price is supposed to increase.</p>
<h2 id="h-the-market-cycle-model-for-detecting-bitcoin-price-trends">The market cycle model for detecting Bitcoin price trends</h2>
<p>The market cycle model, developed by the research firm Ned Davis Research, analyzes Bitcoin’s price trends <strong>based on four phases</strong>:</p>
<ul>
 <li>accumulation,<strong><em></em></strong></li>
 <li>uptrend,<strong><em></em></strong></li>
 <li>distribution,<strong><em></em></strong></li>
 <li>downtrend. <strong><em></em></strong></li>
</ul>
<p>These phases correspond to crypto investors’ behavior, which varies according to their confidence, optimism, or pessimism.<strong><em></em></strong></p>
<p>The market cycle model uses technical indicators, such as moving averages, to detect phase changes as well as market reversal points for Bitcoin. This model allows for real-time tracking of Bitcoin’s <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-markets/bitcoin-btc-en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">price evolution</a> and adjusting one’s crypto investment strategy accordingly.</p>
<h2 id="h-patience-is-the-key">Patience is the key</h2>
<p>Bitcoin is also <strong>a long-term currency</strong>. This cryptocurrency aims to revolutionize the global financial system. This means that one should be patient and believe in its vision. Short-term fluctuations should not be discouraging.</p>
<p>It is also <strong>a volatile currency</strong>, which can be influenced by :</p>
<ul>
 <li>regulation,</li>
 <li>competition,</li>
 <li>innovation,</li>
 <li>demand,</li>
 <li>speculation,</li>
 <li>manipulation.</li>
</ul>
<p>According to several crypto analysts, Bitcoin is perfectly on the right track. Patience is the key to exploiting it effectively.</p>

Bitcoin: PlanB reveals two essential forecasting models

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