Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin

James

As the crypto world braces for a potentially historic week, the spotlight turns to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is anticipated to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by Wednesday, January 10. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have projected a <a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-etf-is-not-priced-in-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">90% chance</a> of this landmark decision materializing, a move that underscores the SEC’s progressive stance under Chairman Gary Gensler’s leadership. 
<h2 id="the-bitcoin-etf-is-coming-5-things-to-watch-this-week">The Bitcoin ETF Is Coming: 5 Things To Watch This Week</h2> 
Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store and co-founder of the ETF Institute, shared his expert <a href="https://twitter.com/NateGeraci/status/1744164165521182894" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">insights</a> on the unfolding situation. “5 things I’m watching this week re: spot bitcoin ETFs…,” he stated and began with the critical nature of fee disclosures, especially from heavyweights like <a href="https://bitcoinist.com/blackrock-to-shed-workforce-of-bitcoin-etf-approval/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">BlackRock</a> and Grayscale. “Can’t overstate the importance of fees in this competition,” Geraci remarked, noting Fidelity’s lead with a 0.39% fee and Invesco’s close follow-up at 0.59%. 
Geraci’s second focus is on the SEC’s approval vote. Currently, two more specific technical criteria need to be met for a spot-backed Bitcoin ETF before the SEC’s vote. Initially, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is required to authorize the 19b-4 filings submitted by the exchanges intending to list the ETFs. Subsequently, the regulator is also obligated to sanction the pertinent S-1 forms, which serve as the registration applications from the prospective issuers. 
According to a Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-08/crypto-s-bitcoin-etf-hopefuls-wait-for-us-sec-approval-by-january-10-deadline" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">report</a>, issuers have until 8:00 am Monday to submit any last-minute revisions to their pending S-1s applications. Following this, SEC plans to vote on 19b-4s in the coming days. Geraci described the process: “SEC Division of Trading &amp; Markets must approve 19b-4s, and Division of Corporate Finance must sign-off on S-1s.” But he expressed confidence in the approval, saying, “I expect<a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-spot-etf-applicants-submit-19b-4-amendment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener "> 19b-4 approval</a> orders.” 
Third is the potential launch date. The market is also abuzz with speculations about the potential launch of these ETFs as early as Thursday. “ETFs could possibly launch on Thursday. If that happens, fascinated to see what type of investor $$ is already lined-up,” Geraci remarked and highlighted the investor money that is expected to flow into these ETFs, citing rumors of BlackRock entering with $2 billion and ARK possibly investing over $200 million. 
A fourth critical aspect is whether <a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-etf-grayscales-8-a-filing-explained/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">Grayscale’s GBTC</a> will convert or uplist on the same day as other ETF launches. Geraci believes so, basing his opinion on “tweets from execs, filings, &amp; general actions/messaging.” He emphasized the significance of GBTC’s existing $27 billion in assets, which could instantly place it among the top ETFs by AUM upon launch. 
The marketing strategies of these entities are also under Geraci’s watchful eye, especially given the restrictive ‘33 Act advertising rules. “We’ve already seen a preview with Bitwise, Hashdex, &amp; <a href="https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-etf-by-vaneck-benefit-btc-core-developers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">VanEck</a>… What does BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, ARK, Grayscale, &amp; everyone else have in store?” Geraci questioned, expecting innovative approaches. 
<h2 id="the-final-steps-this-week">The Final Steps This Week</h2> 
Bloomberg’s Seyffart agreed with Geraci’s points, singling out the fee competition as particularly captivating. “Agree with all this. In my mind. The fee war is far and away the most interesting aspect though. I guess that could change if Grayscale is held back in some way. But my base case is that it doesn’t happen,” he said, highlighting the intense rivalry expected in the sector. 
Scott Johnsson, a finance lawyer at Davis Polk, offered his insights on the timeline and approval probabilities. His guess on timing is that on Monday the final S-1/3 get filed, “Wednesday: 19b-4 approval orders issued post-close, Thursday: Requests for acceleration from issuers, Friday: Notice of effectiveness filed from SEC, and Tuesday [next week]: Trading starts” 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"> 
 Best guess on timing (not definitive):– Monday: “Final” S-1/3 filed– Wednesday: 19b-4 approval orders issued post-close– Thursday: Requests for acceleration from issuers– Friday: Notice of effectiveness filed from SEC– Tuesday: Trading starts 
 — Scott Johnsson (@SGJohnsson) <a href="https://twitter.com/SGJohnsson/status/1744179562873847936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">January 8, 2024</a>
</blockquote> 
Johnsson also outlined a step-by-step progression, from the final S-1/3 filings to the eventual start of trading, attaching increasing probabilities of approval at each stage.Johnsson estimates the chances of approval: 
<blockquote>
 Right now: 96-98% 19b-4 approval: 99% Notice of effectiveness: 99.99% Trading: 100%.
</blockquote> 
In conclusion, this week stands as a watershed moment for Bitcoin ETFs in the US, with the SEC’s decisions on the 19b-4 filings and S-1 forms being the final hurdles. The culmination of these events could mark a significant evolution in Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream financial markets. 
At press time, BTC traded at $44,006. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-273050" src="https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472" alt="Bitcoin price" width="1024" height="472" srcset="https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=3628 3628w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=640 640w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=768 768w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=980 980w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=1536 1536w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=2048 2048w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=750 750w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=1140 1140w, https://bitcoinist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BTCUSD_2024-01-08_08-30-38.png?resize=1024%2C472?w=3000 3000w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" data-recalc-dims="1">

Bitcoin ETF Week: Expert Reveals 5 Things To Watch

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