Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin

Block

<p>The potential approval of the Bitcoin ETF is undeniably generating a fever of anticipation within the crypto community. As the crucial date draws near, crypto analyses are plentiful.</p> 
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     <p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bitcoin spot ETF approvals most likely a sell-the-news event: K33 <a href="https://t.co/4mhZjNvteE">https://t.co/4mhZjNvteE</a></p>— The Block (@TheBlock__) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1742217773210632634?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 2, 2024</a>
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  The approval of Bitcoin ETFs will certainly propel the crypto market, according to K33
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<h2 id="h-the-crypto-market-is-already-anticipating-the-approval-of-bitcoin-etfs">The crypto market is already anticipating the approval of Bitcoin ETFs</h2> 
<p>For several months now, members of the crypto community have been waiting to learn the final decision of the SEC on Bitcoin ETFs.</p>
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<p>Particularly on January 2, the crypto atmosphere seems tense with <strong>a more than 5% increase in the price of Bitcoin</strong> over the last 24 hours. The price of the crypto has <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-new-peak-at-45000-as-sec-decision-on-etf-draws-nearer/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">surpassed $45,000</a>.</p> 
<p>In the same vein, an analyst from K33 Research (Vetle Lunde) predicts a post-approval sell-the-news scenario with a 75% probability. The futures premiums on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicate a crowded market, suggesting that traders are heavily exposed ahead of the verdict.</p> 
<p>The recent trend, characterized by <strong>three months of continuous bullish momentum</strong>, underlines the anticipation of Bitcoin ETF approvals. However, <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/269993/bitcoin-spot-etf-sell-the-news-k33?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Lunde</a> warns of froth signs in the crypto market. This is notably illustrated by <strong>future premiums reaching annualized levels of 50%</strong> on the CME. These indicators suggest a possible squeeze coming to the crypto market following the Bitcoin ETF verdict.</p> 
<h2 id="more-signs-of-a-bullish-market-in-crypto">More signs of a bullish market in crypto</h2> 
<p>The increase in open interest by more than 50,000 BTC over the past three months clearly demonstrates the anticipation of <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-first-sec-approved-etf-revolution-expected-on-january-10th/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin spot ETF approvals</a>. It also raises the issue of rolling costs, with Lunde highlighting <strong>a carry cost of 1 to 2% per month</strong> on the CME. This is acceptable in the medium term but potentially unsustainable in the long run.</p> 
<p>The retail market adds to the fervor, with funding rates on offshore exchanges reaching annualized highs of 72%. Short sellers hesitate to enter the crypto market ahead of the Bitcoin ETF verdict, accentuating the perpetual premium on the spot market and making long positions costly to maintain.</p> 
<h2 id="what-are-the-short-term-and-long-term-forecasts">What are the short-term and long-term forecasts?</h2> 
<p>Analyst Lunde predicts a <strong>rise in the <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/crypto-markets/bitcoin-btc-en/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin price</a></strong> ahead of the Bitcoin ETF verdict. He also warns of significant profit-taking by short-term traders. In the long-term, Lunde is optimistic. He believes that the net influx of fresh money through potential spot ETFs, combined with Bitcoin’s halving in April, could catalyze a new bullish trend.</p> 
<p>The critical issue lies in a net influx of at least 50,000 BTC ($2.3 billion) in January to ensure market stability. To be continued…</p>

Bitcoin ETF Approval: Crypto Market in Turmoil

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