Bitcoin

November has often been a standout month for Bitcoin, with historical data indicating an impressive average price jump of 43%. This would propel Bitcoin to around $48,000. But with October already showing a significant price increase, the question arises: Will Bitcoin continue its bullish trend, or is a retrace on the horizon?
<h2 id="strong-november-monthly-returns-strong">November Monthly Returns</h2>
November has been particularly bullish for Bitcoin over time, with an average of 43% of price increases over the years. If this trend holds true for this year, we might see Bitcoin touching $48,000.
Related Reading: <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-price-to-reach-170000-in-2025-mathematical-model-predicts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Price To Reach $170,000 in 2025 – Mathematical Model Predicts</a>
However, it’s worth noting that this very high average is significantly influenced by the extreme 453% surge in 2013. If we exclude this outlier, the average settles around 11.54% This leads to a more conservative forecast, pointing to a potential rise to around $38,000.
<img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-558124 size-full aligncenter" src="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monthly-returns-bitcoin-e1698596812437.jpg?resize=1000%2C578" alt="" width="1000" height="578" srcset="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monthly-returns-bitcoin-e1698596812437.jpg?resize=1000%2C578?w=1000 1000w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monthly-returns-bitcoin-e1698596812437.jpg?resize=1000%2C578?w=460 460w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monthly-returns-bitcoin-e1698596812437.jpg?resize=1000%2C578?w=768 768w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monthly-returns-bitcoin-e1698596812437.jpg?resize=1000%2C578?w=860 860w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monthly-returns-bitcoin-e1698596812437.jpg?resize=1000%2C578?w=750 750w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" data-recalc-dims="1">
Diving deeper into historical data, 8 of the past 13 years have shown price increases in November, making another increase this month seem plausible. Yet, a closer look reveals that 4 of the last 5 times in November there was a price dip.
In 2022, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_FTX" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">FTX collapse</a> played a pivotal role and 2021 marked the <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/next-bitcoin-peak-why-it-could-still-be-2-years-away/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">peak</a> for Bitcoin, suggesting that these decreases might be outliers rather than indicative of a changing trend.
For a closer comparison, 2019 stands out as it too was a pre-halving year, just like 2023. That year, after a promising October, Bitcoin saw a 17% dip in November, which would equate to a value of $28,000 if repeated this year.
<h2 id="strong-bitcoin-price-action-in-2023-strong">Bitcoin Price Action In 2023</h2>
Through 2023, Bitcoin has demonstrated a recurring behavior following significant price increases of more than 20%. Typically, these surges have been followed by consolidation periods, and subsequently, a <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/this-metric-hinted-at-bitcoin-retrace-in-advance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">retrace</a> to at least half of the initial increase.
Related Reading: <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/altcoin/bitcoin-season-leading-the-charge-in-the-crypto-market/#:~:text=Over%20the%20last%20month%2C%20Bitcoin's,its%20previous%20peak%20this%20year." target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Bitcoin Season: Leading The Charge In The Crypto Market</a>
Take January, for instance. Bitcoin’s price increased from $16,500 to $24,000, only to decline to $20,000 by March – a retrace of 60% from the initial increase.
One particularly extreme example was in August when Bitcoin retraced the entirety of a prior 20% rise.
<img decoding="async" loading="lazy" class="wp-image-558135 size-full aligncenter" src="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/bitcoin-this-year-e1698600913488.png?resize=1000%2C540" alt="" width="1000" height="540" srcset="https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/bitcoin-this-year-e1698600913488.png?resize=1000%2C540?w=1000 1000w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/bitcoin-this-year-e1698600913488.png?resize=1000%2C540?w=460 460w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/bitcoin-this-year-e1698600913488.png?resize=1000%2C540?w=768 768w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/bitcoin-this-year-e1698600913488.png?resize=1000%2C540?w=860 860w, https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/bitcoin-this-year-e1698600913488.png?resize=1000%2C540?w=750 750w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" data-recalc-dims="1">
It’s noteworthy that these retraces haven’t always been immediate. After the rise in March, it wasn’t until June – a span of three months – that the price saw a 50% retrace. On average, this year’s price retraces have taken between 1 to 3 months to manifest post-rise.
Furthermore, before any retrace occurs, there’s still room for additional upside. To illustrate, after the aforementioned March rise, Bitcoin experienced an additional 10% increase before eventually retracing the initial surge. Potential Scenarios For November Using the above, potential scenarios for November are listed below: 
<ul>
 <li>Very bullish scenario: Bitcoin rises by 10-20%, potentially reaching up to $42,000.</li>
 <li>Bullish scenario: Bitcoin rises by 1-10%, potentially reaching up to $38,000.</li>
 <li>Bearish scenario: Bitcoin decreases by 10%, dropping to around $31,000. This would mean a 50% retrace of the surge in October.</li>
 <li>Very bearish scenario: Bitcoin decreases by 20%, dropping to around $28,000. This would mean a 100% retrace of the surge in October.</li>
</ul> In conclusion, given past trends and current market behavior, November promises to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin. Predycto is the author of a <a href="https://predycto.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">cryptocurrency newsletter</a>. Sign up for <a href="https://predycto.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">free</a>. Follow <a href="https://twitter.com/predycto" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">@Predycto</a> on Twitter.

November Outlook For Bitcoin Price: Another Pump Or Retrace?

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