United

Galaxy

Bitcoin ETF

Bitcoin

Spot

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 Currently, a 74% increase takes Bitcoin to over $59,000 and that doesn’t factor in “second-order effects,” says Galaxy Digital.
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 Bitcoin’s (BTC) <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="price" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/price.html">price</a> will <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="increase" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/increase.html">increase</a> 74.1% in the first year after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="launch" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/launch.html">launch</a>ed in the United States, according to estimates from crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital.
 In an Oct. 24 blog post, Galaxy&nbsp;Digital research associate Charles Yu estimated the total addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs would be $14.4 trillion in the first year after <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="launch" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/launch.html">launch</a>. He obtained the 74% figure by assessing the potential <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="price" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/price.html">price</a> impact of fund inflows to Bitcoin ETF products using gold ETFs as a baseline.
 According to Yu’s estimates, Bitcoin’s price would increase 6.2% in the first month after an ETF launch before steadily trending downward to a 3.7% monthly increase by month 12.
 <figure><img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/10/25/b2466c443280b29cc082227fb0b44838.webp">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Spot Bitcoin ETF estimated one-year inflows by month and Bitcoin price impact. Source: Galaxy Digital Research
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 Yu used Bitcoin price data from Sept. 30, but a 74.1% increase in Bitcoin’s current price would see it hit $59,200.
 Markus Thielen, head of research at digital asset financial services firm Matrixport reached a similar figure in an Oct. 19 post, estimating Bitcoin could rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application is approved.
 Yu predicts the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs’ addressable market size to reach $26.5 trillion in the second year after launch and $39.6 trillion after the third year.
 <figure><img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/10/25/6457cdf2fd5fdcc3055adefd5c765728.webp">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">Spot Bitcoin ETF market sizing and inflow estimates over the first three years. Source: Galaxy Digital Research
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 Related: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: How it works, its benefits and opportunities 
 Yu acknowledged a delay or denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs would impact its price prediction.
 However, he said the estimates were still conservative and didn’t factor in “second-order effects” from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
 “In the near-term, we expect other global/international markets to follow the U.S. in approving + offering similar Bitcoin ETF offerings to a wider population of investors,” Yu wrote.
 He added “2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin” citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving and “the possibility that rates have peaked or will peak in the near term.”
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Source: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://thebittimes.com/galaxy-predicts-74-bitcoin-price-increase-first-year-after-etf-launch-tbt67635.html">https://thebittimes.com/galaxy-predicts-74-bitcoin-price-increase-first-year-after-etf-launch-tbt67635.html</a>

Galaxy predicts 74% Bitcoin price increase first year after ETF launch

TheBitTimes

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