United

Bitcoin

<div class="sg-post-des">
  Bitcoin miners and "smart money" are the investor cohorts to watch when it comes to late 2023 BTC price action, says Filbfilb. 
</div> 
<div class="cointelegraph"> 
 <p>Bitcoin (BTC) is “much more likely” to stay rangebound until at least Q4, 2023, according to longtime market participant Filbfilb.</p> 
 <p>In an X thread on Aug. 25, the popular analyst and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader told readers to expect flat BTC price action into year end.</p> 
 <h2 id="filbfilb-btc-price-approaching-critical-time">Filbfilb: BTC price approaching "critical time"</h2> 
 <p>Bitcoin may be disappointing bulls after its 70% Q1 gains, but for Filbfilb, there is little about BTC price action this halving cycle that is different to its previous ones.</p> 
 <p>“Bitcoin is 1200 days since the previous halving. During this period, Bitcoin has historically consolidated,” he explained.</p> 
 <p>Uploading various comparative charts, Filbfilb predicted that miners should begin to bid price higher into the Bitcoin <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="halving" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/halving.html">halving</a> — with this occurring around 1,276 days after each prior <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="halving" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/halving.html">halving</a>.</p> 
 <p>“Miners are incentivized to ensure that prices are well above marginal cost prior to the halving. Whether they collude consciously, or not they are collectively incentivized to send prices higher before their marginal revenue is effectively halved,” he wrote, also adding that smart money interested in “buying the rumor” around the halving’s potential positive BTC price impact had also buoyed the market in previous years.</p> 
 <p>1,276 from the 2020 halving gives early November as a potential deadline for such behavior to show itself.</p> 
 <p>“From a timing perspective Q4 seems like a critical time for BTC where we are likely to see supply constricted and new <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="money" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/money.html">money</a> driven by speculation,” Filbfilb forecast. </p> 
 <blockquote>
   “Until then, it would be unusual for Bitcoin to break up, much more likely to consolidate.” 
 </blockquote> 
 <figure> 
  <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/25/616be6e7c96112278ecb70b7958775d5.webp"> 
  <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> <em>BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Filbfilb/X</em> 
  </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 <h2 id="macro-risk-to-bitcoin-stays-elephant-in-the-room">Macro risk to Bitcoin stays "elephant in the room"</h2> 
 <p>Between now and then, however, various curve balls may lie in wait for Bitcoin, not least of which is United States macroeconomic policy.</p> 
 <p><strong><em>Related: Bitcoin could be worth less than $20K in 2023, US inflation data says</em></strong></p> 
 <p>The September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will decide benchmark interest rates, is of particular interest to risk asset bulls.</p> 
 <p>Filbfilb described the macro aspect as being “clearly the elephant in the room.”</p> 
 <p>“If that can remain steady, then I believe the game theory will play out and Bitcoin will convincingly break $30k before the 2023 year-end,” he wrote.</p> 
 <p>Should a more bearish scenario enter and Bitcoin return to $20,000, the current 2023 local high of $31,800 may remain in force.</p> 
 <p>“I would suggest that if that happens and is for anything other than for a very short time period, then the pre-<a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="halving" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/halving.html">halving</a> pump may only take us to the 2023 highs already seen and breaking it would come later,” he concluded.</p> 
 <figure> 
  <img src="https://cdn.thebittimes.com/images/2023/08/25/eb799617f67204417ce5d60f06e2525f.webp"> 
  <figcaption style="text-align: center;"> <em>Potential BTC/USD scenarios. Source: Filbfilb/X</em> 
  </figcaption> 
 </figure> 
 <p>As Cointelegraph reported, other analysts are also counting the days between <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="halving" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/halving.html">halving</a>s, with varying BTC price predictions coming as a result.</p> 
 <p>Asset managed Pantera Capital this week delivered a $35,000 target for the next <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" title="halving" href="https://thebittimes.com/tag/halving.html">halving</a> and $148,000 for after the 2024 event, while another recent prediction stated that $100,000 would under no circumstances come before it.</p> 
 <p class="post-content__disclaimer">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. </p> 
 <template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook"></template> 
</div>

Wen moon? Bitcoin halving cycle hints at Q4 as smart money 'buys the rumor'

Table of Contents

TheBitTimes

Other articles published on Aug 25, 2023

Binance's Acquisition Deal With Gopax Reportedly Failed

Calls for Regulation of Crypto Investment Management Firms Amidst Growing Concerns

Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) Whales are Active with Pepe(PEPE) Loss: Bullish Trend for Pomerdoge (POMD) Con...

Judge Denies Separate Class for Celsius Stakeholders

Chinese Filecoin Mining Firm Faces $83.3 Million Controversy; Traders Predict a Meteoric Rise for...

Menilik Lagi Sejarah Singkat Bitcoin

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!