MSCI Rules Could Trigger $15B Crypto Market Sell-Off, Say Analysts
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MSCI Rules Could Trigger $15B Crypto Market Sell-Off, Say Analysts

Strategy alone, which represents 74.5% of total impacted market cap, faces $2.8 billion in potential outflows, according to JPMorgan calculations.

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Morgan Stanley Capital International Index could force crypto treasury companies into massive asset liquidations if proposed rules to exclude them from its indices take effect.

Advocacy group BitcoinForCorporations estimates potential outflows between $10 billion and $15 billion based on preliminary analysis of 39 companies holding $113 billion in combined float-adjusted market capitalization. Strategy alone, which represents 74.5% of total impacted market cap, faces $2.8 billion in potential outflows, according to JPMorgan calculations.

The group collected 1,268 signatures opposing MSCI's October proposal to remove companies with majority crypto balance sheets from its indices. Such exclusions would dramatically impact passive investment fund holdings, as MSCI benchmarks determine which companies these funds must hold.

Analysts project $11.6 billion in total outflows across all affected companies. This selling pressure would hit markets already experiencing downward trends for nearly three months.

BitcoinForCorporations argues balance sheet metrics unfairly judge operating businesses. The group states companies maintain unchanged customers, revenue, operations, and business models despite Bitcoin holdings.

MSCI plans to announce final conclusions by Jan. 15, with proposed changes taking effect in February 2026 Index Review. Industry players, including Nasdaq-listed Strive, urged MSCI to let markets decide on Dec. 5.

Strategy stated in its December letter that the policy change would bias MSCI against cryptocurrency as an asset class rather than maintaining neutral arbiter status. The firm argues index companies should remain impartial on investment categories.
Critics say passive funds would face forced selling regardless of company fundamentals or performance. The proposal affects firms across multiple sectors holding digital assets as treasury reserves.
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