The contrasting behavior between wallet sizes is creating a lopsided flow pattern that analysts say defines current market structure heading into year-end.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin is trading below $90,000 as retail investors accelerate selling while large holders continue accumulating positions. The contrasting behavior between wallet sizes is creating a lopsided flow pattern that analysts say defines current market structure heading into year-end.
Options pricing assigns only a 30% probability that Bitcoin finishes 2025 above $100,000. The same data shows a 50% chance the asset ends this year below $90,000, with Ethereum markets mirroring identical positioning at a 50% probability of closing under $2,900.
Timothy Misir from BRN Research describes the situation as a crossroad for the asset. Roughly 31,800 Bitcoin recently moved to exchanges at a loss, while wallets holding over 1,000 Bitcoin increased by 2.2%, the fastest pace in four months.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $373 million in outflows on Tuesday, including BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust logging its largest single-day redemption since launching in January 2024. Ethereum and Solana vehicles saw $74 million in outflows and $30 million in inflows, respectively. Misir noted that without institutional buying for Bitcoin and Ethereum, market-wide deleveraging has intensified, keeping Bitcoin confined to a narrow band around $90,000.
Dr. Sean Dawson from Derive.xyz noted that both short-term and long-term volatility surged together over the past two weeks, marking what he called a new volatility regime. Thirty-day implied volatility climbed from 41% to 49%, while six-month volatility rose from 46% to 49% during the same period. The parallel increase is significant because long-tenor volatility typically moves more slowly unless traders are hedging sustained macro uncertainty.
The 30-day 25-delta put skew dropped from negative 2.9% to negative 5.3%, showing traders are paying more for downside protection. Dec. 26 expiries have built substantial put open interest around the $80,000 strike. Dawson said the macro backdrop simply is not giving traders a reason to stay bullish into the close of the year.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled potential support for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Diverging views across the FOMC have left traders without clear policy direction, according to BRN's analysis. Misir stated the market is positioned for sharp reactions to incoming data, with both easing and delay scenarios remaining active into the final six weeks of 2025.
21Shares argued in a Nov. 18 update that current conditions resemble a short-term reset rather than full cycle breakdown. The firm cited forced liquidations totaling nearly $4 billion in long positions this week, thin spot liquidity, and a liquidity vacuum tied to U.S. fiscal dynamics as primary drivers behind the recent decline.
Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket assigns a 30% chance that Bitcoin reaches $85,000 by year-end. However, 21Shares maintained that structural fundamentals remain intact, with selling pressure from long-term holders slowing and assets rotating into what the team described as stickier hands. The firm outlined $98,000 to $100,000 as primary resistance and $85,000 as first major support, with deeper demand expected around $75,000 to $80,000 if the lower level breaks.
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