100B Exits Crypto on Shutdown Risk

100B Exits Crypto on Shutdown Risk Do the 78% odds kill the BTC supercycle?

BTC-

CMC AI Summary

Rising U.S. government shutdown odds, now near 78% on prediction markets, triggered a sharp macro risk-off move across crypto, wiping roughly $100B from total market cap. Maigoro framed the move as headline-driven fear rather than structural damage, noting that Bitcoin dipped but long-term holder behavior remains intact, with leverage cooling instead of collapsing. He highlighted key BTC levels, stressing that holding above the mid-$80K zone keeps the supercycle thesis alive. On the other side, ren crypto argued the supercycle narrative is already broken, claiming Bitcoin now trades like a speculative asset rather than a hedge, and warning that deeper downside toward $65K–$70K is possible if macro pressure persists. Data-focused takes from BlockViz.xyz pushed back on that view, pointing out that while BTC slipped below $88K as shutdown odds spiked, ETF and whale flows show slowing momentum, not panic. They emphasized that past shutdown scares caused temporary volatility, not cycle-ending reversals. Captainmaisalaty and BIMASS echoed this, describing the move as deleveraging driven by macro fear, not on-chain capitulation. Both stressed that BTC dominance holding up suggests capital is rotating out of alts first. Meanwhile, Bellezza highlighted how institutions react fast to regulatory uncertainty, but reminded that Bitcoin has survived far worse macro shocks. Finally, The Trend offered a more structural view, arguing Bitcoin is maturing into a new market regime where macro liquidity matters more than classic cycle models. The debate now centers on whether this is a shakeout—or the first real stress test of the BTC supercycle.

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